In predicting who may be nominated for the Emmy Awards, it's always that constant give and take between your own opinion and your assessment of the academy. When putting together my own predictions, being a regular visitor to Gold Derby, I had instant access to all sorts of great resources, from Tom's gathering of the Top 10 lists to Rob and Boomer's own predictions.
However, let's be honest: some of these decisions pain us. We might be sinking ourselves in the end, but we're going to predict that Lost cracks Best Drama Series even when we know it could easily be snubbed yet again, or we're going to have Zejlko Ivanek break into Supporting Actor Drama when he doesn't have a prayer. In some cases, our fandom wins out over our heaps of analysis - it's the way things are.
At Cultural Learnings, I went through my predictions feeling too safe. I felt like I was just picking who the Academy would pick, and at a certain point that isn't satisfying anymore. And so, in a fit of insanity by some accounts, I put Mary McDonnell's name into the Best Actress Drama category. And then, I felt better - yeah, it's a longshot to say the least, but I'll sleep better at night knowing I did my best to will it to be so.
So, lay it all out on the table: who's your Hail Mary in your predictions? Who's your last gasp at your favourite show making a breakthrough, or your underdog who you want to see emerge from the pack? It might be statistical suicide, but that's never stopped us before.
I'll start it off, more officially speaking:
Longshot Prediction: Mary McDonnell, Lead Actress Drama
Why: No one expected BSG to so easily break into Writing/Directing last year, and I think the acting branch noticed. Her tape is strong, and rather than viewing it as a great performance surrounded by confusing Science Fiction, I am giving panelists more credit than they probably deserve in assuming that they will instead see it as a powerful piece of human drama complemented by and complimentary to the science fiction.
Here are my predix. I'll talk about my three longshots at the end.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES Curb Your Enthusiasm Family Guy The Office Pushing Daisies 30 Rock
OUTSTANDING LEAD COMEDY ACTOR Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock Steve Carell, The Office Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm David Duchovny, Californication Lee Pace, Pushing Daisies
OUTSTANDING LEAD COMEDY ACTRESS America Ferrera, Ugly Betty Tina Fey, 30 Rock Felicity Huffman, Desperate Housewives Julia Louis-Dreyfus, New Adventures of Old Christine Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother John Krasinski, The Office Jack McBrayer, 30 Rock Rainn Wilson, The Office
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTRESS Kristin Chenoweth, Pushing Daisies Jenna Fischer, The Office Judith Light, Ugly Betty Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty
OUTSTANDING GUEST COMEDY ACTOR N/A
OUTSTANDING GUEST COMEDY ACTRESS Edie Falco, 30 Rock Vivica A. Fox, Curb Your Enthusiasm Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives Amy Ryan, The Office Elaine Stritch, 30 Rock
And here's my Drama picks again, for easy reference. Note that I made two changes in the past few weeks -- Hargitay's out and Hunter's in for Lead Actress -- Ivanek's out and Underwood's in for Supporting Actor.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES Boston Legal Damages Grey's Anatomy Lost Mad Men
OUTSTANDING LEAD DRAMA ACTOR Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad Michael C. Hall, Dexter Jon Hamm, Mad Men Hugh Laurie, House James Spader, Boston Legal
OUTSTANDING LEAD DRAMA ACTRESS Glenn Close, Damages Sally Field, Brothers and Sisters Holly Hunter, Saving Grace Mary McDonnell, Battlestar Galactica Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR Ted Danson, Damages Michael Emerson, Lost William Shatner, Boston Legal John Slattery, Mad Men Blair Underwood, In Treatment
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS Candice Bergen, Boston Legal Rose Byrne, Damages Rachel Griffiths, Brothers and Sisters Christina Hendricks, Mad Men Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy
OUTSTANDING GUEST DRAMA ACTOR Danny Glover, Brothers and Sisters Robert Morse, Mad Men Peter O'Toole, The Tudors Glynn Turman, In Treatment Robin Williams, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit
OUTSTANDING GUEST DRAMA ACTRESS N/A
For the most part, I'm really just agreeing with the judges's opinions here. But I'm really stepping out of bounds in three instances -- Amy Poehler, Mary McDonnell, and Family Guy.
Posts: 151 | Location: Los Angeles | Registered: June 10, 2008
