Slattery and Kartheiser have pretty good tapes. Slattery's is much better than his last year. I am not sure Kartheiser could get nominated. Though, his performance in "Flight 1" is excellent. But, like Jon Hamm, it is a pretty subtle performance. I'm not sure it is a winner. Slattery's is more overtly showy. It *could* be a contender.

I haven't seen Shatner's or Clemenson's possible tapes yet. I'd like to hope that the voters wouldn't reward Shatner again, but who knows. Mahoney was good. The nature of the show gives him a strong tape. Though, I didn't see all his episodes. Don't know which one he'd choose. I'd be a bit angry if Hurt won. He was fine on Damages, but I am not even sure he is nomination worthy. I don't think he could produce a surefire winning tape.

Aaron Paul from Breaking Bad would be a big threat if he could get nominated. He'd have a great tape to submit. Walton Goggins would also be a threat if he could pull out a nomination. And actually, Patrick Dempsey might contend if he somehow ends up nominated. Weird, but it could happen.

Did I miss anyone? Wow, I have actually seen a lot more tapes in this category than I thought I had.

Hmmm, I guess with this breakdown, Emerson's chances look a bit better. He doesn't have anything like "Shape of Things To Come" this year. But, I am not sure there is anything like Ivanek's tape lurking out there, either. Paul and Goggins would be the biggest possibilities for that scenario.

I, too, would like to think that people wouldn't just judge Emerson on one tape. I'd like to think his entire season's (heck, entire series) work would be under consideration. But, I also think if that was the case, he would have won last year.

I also wonder if people might just be waiting until the show is over to reward Emerson. Like some sort of Series Achievement kind of thing. I don't know if that is true. But, the thought has crossed my mind.

Bah, I just really want Michael Emerson to win for this performance in this role. I think he is phenomenal on this show. He is helping to turn Ben into an iconic television character.

Then again, Hugh Laurie is doing the same thing on House and has come up empty every time at the Emmys. So, what do I know?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: LadyHathor25,

Thanks for filling in some of the blanks as to which supporting characters are in this race LadyHathor. Last year the competition was really tough. All 5 had great tapes. Whether this year will be as tough is not known but there is a chance it wont be which means Emerson could win with a tape that isn't as good as The Shape of Things to Come. He could also be the most overdue nominiee which won't hurt.

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
I haven't seen Shatner's or Clemenson's possible tapes yet. I'd like to hope that the voters wouldn't reward Shatner again, but who knows.

You don't have to worry too much about Shatner this year. He has some nice moments in the season but no episode that is anywhere worthy of a win. I don't even know what he should submit perhaps the 2 hour final? The only thing that could win it for him is sympathy for the final season but he's already won. Actually John Laroquette is more deserving this year and has 2 or 3 great tapes.

quote:

I also wonder if people might just be waiting until the show is over to reward Emerson. Like some sort of Series Achievement kind of thing.

President Jed Bartlet, Lois from Malcolm, Ruth Fischer, Dr. Melfi and GOB Bluth will all attest to the fact that the Emmys don't wait until the end to reward someone. All not only iconic characters but with awsome tapes for their final bat.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Noble,

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
And to bring this back to Josh Holloway, Jeff Jensen over at EW has a piece up about Holloway and his Emmy chances:

http://popwatch.ew.com/popwatc...-holloway-who-h.html

Thank you very much for the article and videos! Josh fair does me in!

I hope he gets nominated this year. I thought it was believable that Sawyer (or should I say James) and Juliet were in love with each other. That must have been difficult to act. They look like they are intellectually suited and wouldn't get hysterical about things the way Jack and Kate might.
It was interesting that Josh imagined how he would feel if he lost his family to play the end scene of "The Incident".

I'm sorry, but you guys are name-dropping so much. Is there a chance that, from now on, we could at least make note of what shows some of the supporting actor players are in. I know Mahoney and Dempsey, and Shatner of course. But Goggins? Clemenson? Who the heck?

I'm very surprised to see Aaron Paul has such a strong following now. I just started Breaking Bad Season 2, and so far he's been the same as the first season. That's not a bad thing, mind you. Maybe he just escalates by the end of the season.

quote:

Goggins? Clemenson? Who the heck?

Goggins - Walton Goggins from The Shield
Clemenson - Christian Clemenson from Boston Legal

I'm lol'ing at the Patrick Dempsey mention. That'll never happen in a million years (and let's not give him enough buzz to where it does happen, okay?). The only reason he made it into Lead Actor year after year was because there were only about 8 guys who had legitimate shots of getting in. Had to find 2 more guys from somewhere. lol.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Bazookka Joe,

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:
I'm sorry, but you guys are name-dropping so much. Is there a chance that, from now on, we could at least make note of what shows some of the supporting actor players are in. I know Mahoney and Dempsey, and Shatner of course. But Goggins? Clemenson? Who the heck?

Sorry about that,
will try to avoid it in the future

quote:

Originally posted by Noble:

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:
I'm sorry, but you guys are name-dropping so much. Is there a chance that, from now on, we could at least make note of what shows some of the supporting actor players are in. I know Mahoney and Dempsey, and Shatner of course. But Goggins? Clemenson? Who the heck?

Sorry about that,
will try to avoid it in the future

No problem. There are just certain shows whose cast I don't know by name yet. And since Bazookka Joe told me that those two names are from Shield and BL -- both of which are now over -- I'm feeling a little stupid. Ah well.

Since I found out who Vincent Kartheiser is, I want to ask: do you think there's a better chance that the two supporting Mad Men will get in, or that Holloway and Emerson get in? I have a feeling that for some show there will be a nomination pair in one category.

Hm. I don't know which show would have the better shot to be honest.Mad Men's best chance of double nominations is in Lead Actress and I think voters will go for that more than in Supporting Actor. But you never know, they might do both.

Sorry about the names. I thought the only one who would be unknown on this board was Aaron Paul, so I did credit his show.

And as for Dempsey.... one never knows. I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see it happen. I am not a fan of Grey's Anatomy by any means. But, I could see this happening.

As for Mad Men, I have no idea. With Terry O'Quinn being out, it has to help Kartheiser a bit. I would think Mad Men would have the better chance of getting double nominees than LOST, just because of the higher Emmy profile of the show. But, Emerson and Holloway play way flashier characters than Slattery and especially Kartheiser. So, that could help them. In fact, Kartheiser's work is so subtle, I am afraid he might be overlooked altogether.

Oh my, if only there was a top 10 list this year. I really think Holloway might have just made it. Maybe. LOL.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: LadyHathor25,

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
Oh my, if only there was a top 10 list this year. I really think Holloway might have just made it. Maybe. LOL.

People keep saying that. "Holloway is going to miss the mark THIS MUCH" or "he JUST missed his nomination." Why? Really, I think he's got a pretty darn good chance of making it in for one of the six nominations. If I didn't, I wouldn't be here talking him up. Right now, I'm predicting the following:

Michael Emerson, Lost
Josh Holloway, Lost
William Hurt, Damages
John Mahoney, In Treatment
William Shatner, Boston Legal
John Slattery, Mad Men

If I had to replace someone with a high-brow name, it would be Patrick Dempsey. If a not-so-known name, Aaron Paul.

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
Oh my, if only there was a top 10 list this year. I really think Holloway might have just made it. Maybe. LOL.

People keep saying that. "Holloway is going to miss the mark THIS MUCH" or "he JUST missed his nomination." Why? Really, I think he's got a pretty darn good chance of making it in for one of the six nominations. If I didn't, I wouldn't be here talking him up. Right now, I'm predicting the following:
Michael Emerson, Lost
Josh Holloway, Lost
William Hurt, Damages
John Mahoney, In Treatment
William Shatner, Boston Legal
John Slattery, Mad Men
If I had to replace someone with a high-brow name, it would be Patrick Dempsey. If a not-so-known name, Aaron Paul.

Don't forget Boston Legal's Christian Clemenson, who won for guest actor in 2006, got nominated in the same category in 2007 and was in the top eleven for supporting actor in 2008. I am predicting Patrick Dempsey because he has consistently been in the top ten in the more competitive lead actor race.

The reason that I am not predicting Holloway is because he has never made the popular vote in the last four years that he has been eligible. Eight of the eleven popular vote semi-finalists are still eligible this year, plus we have new strong contenders in William Hurt, John Mahoney, Patrick Dempsey and Aaron Paul. William Shatner and Michael Emerson have also been nominated every year that they have been eligible in this category, so they are locks and leave only four open slots (one of which might be filled by John Slattery, who was nominated last year). And we have to assume that Josh Holloway has a massive surge in popularity because he placed twelfth at the very most in the popular vote last year and had never made the popular vote in the three years before 2008. Not only is this category probably too crowded for Holloway in the popular vote, but his tape might also not be good enough compared to those of the rest of these actors and voters might realize that.

quote:

Originally posted by thedemonhog:

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
Oh my, if only there was a top 10 list this year. I really think Holloway might have just made it. Maybe. LOL.

People keep saying that. "Holloway is going to miss the mark THIS MUCH" or "he JUST missed his nomination." Why? Really, I think he's got a pretty darn good chance of making it in for one of the six nominations. If I didn't, I wouldn't be here talking him up. Right now, I'm predicting the following:
Michael Emerson, Lost
Josh Holloway, Lost
William Hurt, Damages
John Mahoney, In Treatment
William Shatner, Boston Legal
John Slattery, Mad Men
If I had to replace someone with a high-brow name, it would be Patrick Dempsey. If a not-so-known name, Aaron Paul.

Don't forget Boston Legal's Christian Clemenson, who won for guest actor in 2006, got nominated in the same category in 2007 and was in the top eleven for supporting actor in 2008. I am predicting Patrick Dempsey because he has consistently been in the top ten in the more competitive lead actor race.

The reason that I am not predicting Holloway is because he has never made the popular vote in the last four years that he has been eligible. Eight of the eleven popular vote semi-finalists are still eligible this year, plus we have new strong contenders in William Hurt, John Mahoney, Patrick Dempsey and Aaron Paul. William Shatner and Michael Emerson have also been nominated every year that they have been eligible in this category, so they are locks and leave only four open slots (one of which might be filled by John Slattery, who was nominated last year). And we have to assume that Josh Holloway has a massive surge in popularity because he placed twelfth at the very most in the popular vote last year and had never made the popular vote in the three years before 2008. Not only is this category probably too crowded for Holloway in the popular vote, but his tape might also not be good enough compared to those of the rest of these actors and voters might realize that.

I respect your opinion. But now I'm confused: I thought that the voters wouldn't be seeing tapes this year until after the nominations are announced.

^ Yes, that is true. But I think on a show as popular as LOST, a lot of the voters will know exactly what kind of material Josh Holloway had. They must pay some sort of attention, since that is the only way I can explain Terry O'Quinn not making the Top 10 last year.

That said, I think Holloway has a pretty good tape. We wouldn't be talking him up if he didn't have nomination-worthy material.

thedemonhog, you said there are 8 contenders back from last year. I am counting 7. Am I missing someone?

This category is really crowded. Let's look at last year's list.

Naveen Andrews
Bruce Dern
Christian Clemenson
Ted Danson
Michael Emerson
Zeljko Ivanek
T.R. Knight
William Shatner
John Slattery
Blair Underwood
Jake Weber

Bolded names are people still in contention this year. Four are out. In place of Underwood, we have Mahoney. In place of Ivanek, we have Hurt. Patrick Dempsey is now in the category, after making the top 10 in the far more competitive Lead Actor category. Walton Goggins is a possibility. So is Aaron Paul. And so is Vincent Kartheiser.

That is 6 more possibilities for 4 open slots. Not including Holloway. Now, I think Holloway may have a better shot than Andrews and maybe Weber. But, does he have a better shot than Dempsey, Hurt, Mahoney, Kartheiser, Goggins and Paul, not to mention Clemenson and Knight? He would have to score higher than 6 of these people to make the nominee list. He would have to score higher than 8 of them if you include Andrews and Weber.

Emerson, Slattery and Shatner look like they could repeat. Hurt and Mahoney are serious threats on a popular ballot. Clemenson has won for this character before, although in a different category. TR Knight's a previous nominee. Patrick Dempsey has to have at least a decent shot. Kartheiser, Goggins and Paul have some critical support.

I count 12 serious contenders there, including Holloway. After Shatner, Emerson and Slattery, I think the other 3 slots are up for grabs.

(And this is assuming people like Andrews and Jeremy Davies won't funnel too many votes away from Holloway. Which could happen.)

I don't know. It seems tight to me. I definitely think Holloway has a shot. Probably the best shot he has ever had...

This message has been edited. Last edited by: LadyHathor25,

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
^ Yes, that is true. But I think on a show as popular as LOST, a lot of the voters will know exactly what kind of material Josh Holloway had. They must pay some sort of attention, since that is the only way I can explain Terry O'Quinn not making the Top 10 last year.

Exactly.

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
thedemonhog, you said there are 8 contenders back from last year. I am counting 7. Am I missing someone?

I did not know that Bruce Dern had switched categories to guest, so I counted eight.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: thedemonhog,

With regards to a double nomination I think it is likely that there will be one in this category. As to which show I’m not quite sure, I think its a 3 way toss up between Boston Legal, Lost and Mad Men. All three of these shows were drama series nominees last year and have one very likely candidate (Shatner, Emerson and Slattery respectively) and a guy fighting out for one of those last slots. Clemenson from Boston Legal made the top 11 last year and is a previous winner for guest. Andrews from Lost made the top 11 last year despite no buzz and is a past nominee. Kartheiser from Mad Men play s a prominent character in last year’s best drama series champ.
Right now I’d rank the double nominiees as:
1. Boston Legal: Shatner/Clemenson
2.Lost: Emerson/Andrews
3. Mad Men: Slattery/Kartheiser
4.Lost: Emerson/Holloway
But really I’d say the first 3all have a pretty even likelihood. Then there is the also very possible scenario where Goggins from the Shield or Paul from Breaking Bad or Dempsey from Grey’s Anatomy sneak in and no show gets 2 nods.

This discussion is quite an important one as in this category as in the past 10 years 8 of the winners have been from a show with multiple nominees. The exceptions were Alda’s win in 2006 (when there were no doubles) and Shatner in 2005.

quote:

Originally posted by Dr.McPhearson:
People keep saying that. "Holloway is going to miss the mark THIS MUCH" or "he JUST missed his nomination." Why? Really, I think he's got a pretty darn good chance of making it in for one of the six nominations. If I didn't, I wouldn't be here talking him up. Right now, I'm predicting the following:

I for one don’t think he is going to just miss the mark by this much. I think he will probably comfortably miss the mark for a nomination. This is the third year in a row that there is a performance on this show people are just certain will come close to being noticed. 2 years ago I was criticized for even suggesting Elizabeth Mitchell was not a lock for the top 10. Last year no one seemed to agree with me that Andrews had a better shot at the top 10 than Henry Ian Cusick. But when the lists came out we saw Mitchell and Cusick miss out and last year Andrews get in. I can’t see how Holloway has more buzz than they did those years. He is more overdue than them but I still think he would have been struggling to make the top 10. I just can’t see him ahead of 6 of Shatner, Emerson, Slattery, Hurt, Mahoney, Clemenson, Andrews, Kartheiser, Dempsey, Paul and Goggins. Although he will probably beat a few of the people I just named and a nomination is not completely out of the question. I am not always right about these things, last year I put O’Quinn far ahead of Andrews in my prediction. I still can’tget my head around how O’Quinn got beaten by all of those 11 guys (just as much a mystery as anything on lost). Come nomination day I wouldn’t be surprised if I ended up eating humble pie.

Yeah, the numbers just don't look great to me for Holloway. I think it would be great for him if he could pull it out. I think he had a heck of a good season on LOST. Better than Mitchell's Season 3 and better than Cusick's Season 4. They each had one standout episode. But Holloway had a flat out great entire season.

But when you start listing contenders it gets really tight. As Noble and I have said, Holloway would have to beat 8 of the following just to crack the nominee list:

Naveen Andrews
Christian Clemenson
Michael Emerson
TR Knight
William Shatner
John Slattery
Jake Weber
William Hurt
John Mahoney
Patrick Dempsey
Walton Goggins
Aaron Paul
Vincent Kartheiser

Eek. I think he could maybe beat 3-5. But 8? Hmmm, it looks tough. (And this is assuming there aren't any curveballs in this category. I mean, Jake Weber made the list last year, so who really knows?)

How cool would it be, though? It would be so cool to see someone new break through from LOST. Holloway could be the 4th actor nominated from LOST. That would be great.

I really am hoping to see a surprise nominee in this category. Someone like Paul, Holloway, Goggins or Kartheiser, who wasn't on the Top 11 list last year.

in my humble opinion, josh holloway was the best actor on lost this season. naveen andrews, i cant remember anything about him, and never understood what the draw to him was, and michael emerson didnt stand out to me as much because he wasnt the "big evil guy" that he was in the past. assuming someone gets nominated from lost, it should be holloway

im saying all this with lost as hands down my favorite show on tv rite now

quote:

Originally posted by Ted Mosby...Architect:
in my humble opinion, josh holloway was the best actor on lost this season. naveen andrews, i cant remember anything about him, and never understood what the draw to him was, and michael emerson didnt stand out to me as much because he wasnt the "big evil guy" that he was in the past. assuming someone gets nominated from lost, it should be holloway

im saying all this with lost as hands down my favorite show on tv rite now

I agree with those views about Holloway, Emerson and Andrews. I would also put Jorge Garcia, Ken Leung and Henry Ian Cusick ahead of Andrews.

I understand that Holloway is in for some strong competition. But honestly, I still think he can pull it off. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part, but I think that Kartheiser is too subtle, and Andrews was too... bleh this season. There goes two from my list. William Hurt was hammy this season, so I'm crossing my fingers against that man. Among the remaining 10 men, vying for 6 spots, I can see the guy jumping in no doubt.

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:
I understand that Holloway is in for some strong competition. But honestly, I still think he can pull it off. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part, but I think that Kartheiser is too subtle, and Andrews was too... bleh this season. There goes two from my list. William Hurt was hammy this season, so I'm crossing my fingers against that man. Among the remaining 10 men, vying for 6 spots, I can see the guy jumping in no doubt.

There's nothing wrong with wishful thinking! Come on Josh!