Originally posted by MicheBel: I'm just calling the shots as I see them. And furthermore, you can call me out on any number of wrong calls in this forum over the years. The one thing I am CONSISTENTLY right about, year after year after year (only missing The Sopranos, cause I was stubborn...shrugs) is Best Drama.
And I'm right this year, too. You'll see.
See, we're all just calling shots, so there's no point in lecturing others that "Person A" or "Show A" is the frontrunner than "Person B" or "Show B"
And for the record, I think you will be most remembered for the Desperate Housewives predictions during Season 2.
quote:
Originally posted by Brilliance inmorbid: We get it. 24 is better than Mad Men and will win the Emmy. Now, please, no more Bible-long posts.
Sorry I just have to let that out.
I hope The Office wins as Best Comedy Series for this year's Emmy Awards.
Posts: 13057 | Location: Manila | Registered: August 19, 2006
Originally posted by bondzzz: About all the Bryan Cranston talk, I won't say he's a lock. Emmy voters are certainly not avid followers of shows. And even though he won last year, the show is not a standout on people's mind unlike Mad Men or Lost. Laurie is an example of whom I think is popular and definitely ranked high on ballot but never ranked high during panel viewing. And with so many people vying for the ever competitive Leading Actor Drama category, he could easily slipped as I think he cannot possibly be ranked higher than 4th among the rest when there's Laurie, Hamm, Hall, Byrne, Spader, Sutherland, Leary, Chiklis, Baker, Petersen, Fishburne to even people like Olmos, Rhys-Meyers, LaPaglia, Paxton & Fox who are going to fight for that top 6 spots.
Fox? Gimme a break. Josh Holloway was the true lead actor of this season. Fox doesn't even deserve to be mentioned with all these other names.
Originally posted by Brilliance inmorbid: Of course tapes have a huge part to do with the win. I'm not disputing that. But with the exception of SFU (which was proven not to be an "Emmy type" show) every front-runner in drama series has walked away with the gold. I never saw "Sopranos" winning for its third or fourth season, btw.
That's just simplistic crap. Sorry.
Right up until nearly the end, there were cries on here about "a sci-fi show with polar bears can't win." Then Lost won.
Few people thought 24 was gonna pull it off.
Yes, Sopranos was a front-runner and won.
Mad Men last year had issues with being on AMC, and though lots of people (myself included) thought it was great, I still wouldn't call it a front-runner last year.
And, as Noble so astutely pointed out, the last several years that West Wing won, people in here were highly skeptical about it winning again.
So, I don't think you can make a broad generalization about "every year the front-runner takes the gold." It's just not borne out by facts. In fact, really, I would say it's only been truly borne out by the Sopranos win in recent years.
And Atypical, I'm sorry if you perceived me as "speaking for you". I was talking about my perceptions of the moods in here. I would never presume to speak for you.
Personally I think the Emmy Drama category is going to be dominated by cable shows and "24" will be lucky to even be nominated with little chance of actually winning.
Posts: 27189 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Originally posted by iskolar: See, we're all just calling shots, so there's no point in lecturing others that "Person A" or "Show A" is the frontrunner than "Person B" or "Show B"
Um, I'm not "lecturing" people. I am stating my opinion, which people can take or leave. I am stating why I believe that, and presenting facts why I believe that, based on the shows this season. Or is that not what we do in here anymore?
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Originally posted by iskolar: And for the record, I think you will be most remembered for the Desperate Housewives predictions during Season 2.
Really? So I won't be remembered most for all the years the West Wing won, and I picked it? Or when Lost won out of nowhere, and I'd been trumpeting it all along? Or when 24 won, and I was trumpeting that? Or Mad Men? The only one I've missed was The Sopranos (which, admittedly, was a stupid miss).
And hopefully, I'll also be remembered for predicting 24 this year, when everyone else is on the Mad Men bandwagon again.
Originally posted by pacinofan: Personally I think the Emmy Drama category is going to be dominated by cable shows and "24" will be lucky to even be nominated with little chance of actually winning.
Really? Think The Tudors is gonna pull out a suprise nom, do ya? Interesting theory.
Originally posted by pacinofan: Personally I think the Emmy Drama category is going to be dominated by cable shows and "24" will be lucky to even be nominated with little chance of actually winning.
Really? Think The Tudors is gonna pull out a suprise nom, do ya? Interesting theory.
"Mad Men" is going to be nominated whether it wins or not. "Dexter", "Breaking Bad", "Damages", "Big Love" and "In Treatment" are in contention for nominations. If all those shows were nominated that would be six slots. I do not seriously think that would happen but I could see four slots being taken by cable shows. Four out of six seems dominant to me.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,
Posts: 27189 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Wow. And you were someone that I really respected in here. Thanks a lot.
Oh no, I hope you didn't misconstrue what I meant--I'm not trying to insult you--it's just calling Californication a lock for Comedy Series is kinda crazy.
But you also said Desperate Housewives was going to be shut-out for its second season, and that was CRAZY back then, and look at who came out on top...
Originally posted by Brilliance inmorbid: Of course tapes have a huge part to do with the win. I'm not disputing that. But with the exception of SFU (which was proven not to be an "Emmy type" show) every front-runner in drama series has walked away with the gold. I never saw "Sopranos" winning for its third or fourth season, btw.
You had said that every year this decade the "presumed frountrunner" had won and I was just pointing out that was not the case. I myself thought West Wing would win drama series for it's 4th season (although I have to admit, since Sopranos nearly swept that night I thought that it might win right before the envelope opened), however that does not change the fact that nearly everyone was predicting Sopranos (or maby Six Feet Under as well). West Wing was not seen as the frount-runner that year.
Mad Men and Lost had their setbacks to winning but were still the presumed frountrunners in their years. However Mad Men didn't really become the strong frountrunner until it was nominated. And Lost didn't become the frountrunner until the tapes were out and Lost chose really well and 24 and West Wing made mistakes - up until then it was a really divided race.
24 was definatly not the frount-runner that year. Predictions were spread pretty evenly between 3 shows and I wouldn't really call any the frountrunner. However I think Grey's Anatomy was being predicted by the most, perhaps followed by West Wing.
I didn't follow the Emmys on the web for the first 2 years of the decade so arn't sure who the presumed frountrunner was, but assuming it was The West Wing (which wouldn't surprise me) the presumed frountrunner has won this deacde only 2/3's of the time. That more than half which means it is worth taking stock of who is the presumed frountrunner but it by no means gives you the win.
Congratulations West Wing, Emmys most honored drama. 27 Emmys including 4 best drama series "What's Next?"
Posts: 2455 | Location: Sydney, Australia | Registered: September 07, 2005
I think a lot of people are choosing a lot more shows/actors as locks than I would. I am truly unsure of what will happen when we move back to a popular vote.
As far as series are concerned, I am only comfortable with the following:
Drama Series: Mad Men
Comedy Series: 30 Rock The Office
I am not even sure I can list the acting categories. These seem really up in the air to me now. I think Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey are locks. I think Steve Carrell, also. That is about all I have in Lead Comedy. Supporting Comedy I can't even think of anyone.
For Drama.... I'll say Jon Hamm, but I am maybe only 95% on him, not 100%. I like to see so many people picking Bryan Cranston. Some other people may not want to admit it, but I am positive he only got nominated because of the panel system last year. I think there is no way he would have ended up in the top 5 of that popular ballot. That category is just too crowded with bigger names. I think his tape was so sensational that it propelled him into the top 6 and ended up handing him the win. This is, of course, my opinion. But, I feel pretty strongly about it. That said, I am hoping Cranston's higher profile this year after the win, plus the outstanding work he did this year will lead to another nomination. But, on a popular ballot I am not calling him a lock yet.
Drama Lead Actress... maybe only Glenn Close.
Drama Supporting Actor: Emerson. I'll put Shatner and Hurt in with 85-95% chance.
Supporting Actress: Shrug.
I am pretty conservative when it comes to calling something a "Lock". I feel like I can only do that if I think there is no way that show/person won't be nominated. I just don't think I can say that about a lot of shows/actors this year.
I think a lot of people are choosing a lot more shows/actors as locks than I would. I am truly unsure of what will happen when we move back to a popular vote.
As far as series are concerned, I am only comfortable with the following:
Drama Series: Mad Men
Comedy Series: 30 Rock The Office
I am not even sure I can list the acting categories. These seem really up in the air to me now. I think Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey are locks. I think Steve Carrell, also. That is about all I have in Lead Comedy. Supporting Comedy I can't even think of anyone.
For Drama.... I'll say Jon Hamm, but I am maybe only 95% on him, not 100%. I like to see so many people picking Bryan Cranston. Some other people may not want to admit it, but I am positive he only got nominated because of the panel system last year. I think there is no way he would have ended up in the top 5 of that popular ballot. That category is just too crowded with bigger names. I think his tape was so sensational that it propelled him into the top 6 and ended up handing him the win. This is, of course, my opinion. But, I feel pretty strongly about it. That said, I am hoping Cranston's higher profile this year after the win, plus the outstanding work he did this year will lead to another nomination. But, on a popular ballot I am not calling him a lock yet.
Drama Lead Actress... maybe only Glenn Close.
Drama Supporting Actor: Emerson. I'll put Shatner and Hurt in with 85-95% chance.
Supporting Actress: Shrug.
I am pretty conservative when it comes to calling something a "Lock". I feel like I can only do that if I think there is no way that show/person won't be nominated. I just don't think I can say that about a lot of shows/actors this year.
i would agree with everything here. mad men is the only lock drama, thats it. the office/steve carell and 30 rock fey/baldwin, locks. thats it. i would also say emerson, nph, and piven are also locks for nominations. even though people are questioning bryan cranstons nom from last year, i would call him a lock. maybe glenn close. i really cant think of any other "locks"
I think that this year just might bring some surprises and that a "lock" might not necessarily be a "lock" this year. The fields are more wide open and it will be interesting to see who ends up making the nominations list. I am not ready yet to offer my own assumed locks but the postings here are quite lively and offer differences of opinions.
Since I don't watch Entourage and I am not a Jeremy Piven fan, I hope that the Academy will consider other comedies and actors/supporting actors, to include other actors on Entourage for their consideration.
I am suruprised to see some of you predicting so many names for locks.
My only definitive locks (major awards) 3 weeks from now would be:
30 Rock The Office Tina Fey Alec Baldwin
Mad Men Glen Close Sally Field
Anything other than that above in my opinion is a crapshoot and no guarantee. And I do not even believe big names like Piven, NP Harris, or Emerson are locks this year. With the "new" popular vote I think anything goes, especially in the supporting categories.
Originally posted by espnfan: I am suruprised to see some of you predicting so many names for locks.
My only definitive locks (major awards) 3 weeks from now would be:
30 Rock The Office Tina Fey Alec Baldwin
Mad Men Glen Close Sally Field
Anything other than that above in my opinion is a crapshoot and no guarantee. And I do not even believe big names like Piven, NP Harris, or Emerson are locks this year. With the "new" popular vote I think anything goes, especially in the supporting categories.
I agree with you. Although I would add Kyra Sedgwick as a lock. She will get in.
We get it. 24 is better than Mad Men and will win the Emmy. Now, please, no more Bible-long posts. 
