This wasn't crossposted as usually happens, so for those who haven't heard, copying Dude's post:

BEST PICTURE
1. Waltz with Bashir, directed by Ari Folman (26)
2. Happy-Go-Lucky (20)
3. WALL-E (20)

BEST NON-FICTION FILM
1. Man on Wire, directed by James Marsh (55)
2. Trouble the Water (34)
3. Encounters at the End of the World (26)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky (36)
2. Gus Van Sant, Milk & Paranoid Park (20)
3. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (16)

BEST ACTOR
1. Sean Penn, Milk (87)
2. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (40)
3. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino (38)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (65)
2. Melissa Leo, Frozen River (33)
3. Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy (31)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky (41)
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (35)
3. Josh Brolin, Milk (29)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Hanna Schygulla, The Edge of Heaven (29)
2. Viola Davis, Doubt (29, on fewer ballots)
3. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona (24)

BEST SCREENPLAY
1. Happy-Go-Lucky, by Mike Leigh (29)
2. A Christmas Tale (24)
3. Synecdoche, New York (17)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Slumdog Millionaire, Anthony Dod Mantle (29)
2. The Flight of the Red Balloon (22)
3. The Dark Knight (18)
4. Still Life

BEST EXPERIMENTAL FILM
1. Razzle Dazzle, directed by Ken Jacobs

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

Wow, thinking outside the box! I'm very excited to see "Waltz with Bashir." And only this week I saw "The Edge of Heaven" and concur that Hanna Schygulla is the best supporting actress of the year -- too bad she doesn't have a prayer of being nominated for the Oscar.

All the love for "Happy-Go-Lucky" seems excessive, though. The awards for Hawkins and Marsan are well deserved, but I wouldn't reward Leigh for direction or screenplay. Oh well. Can't win 'em all.

Blah. I HATED Happy Go Lucky and I hate the critics for so undeservingly showering awards on it and its star.

My sense is that Bashir ended up being the consensus anything-but-Happy Go Lucky best film choice. That often happens with this group (the initial leader with the most support ends up losing to a less polarizing alternative).

I am starting to wonder if Happy-Go-Lucky will slide into some major noms: Picture, Director, Screenplay. Vera Drake did better than expected in noms, and there seems to be even more support for Happy-Go-Lucky.

^^^
God I hope not!

I like how people get irritated with Happy-Go-Lucky's wins! Well deserved all around! Although Wall-E winning would have been ideal. This is still my favorite critic's group.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: NovicMode,

quote:

Originally posted by MysteriousRent:
I am starting to wonder if Happy-Go-Lucky will slide into some major noms: Picture, Director, Screenplay. Vera Drake did better than expected in noms, and there seems to be even more support for Happy-Go-Lucky.

I'm trying not to get my hopes up. The more I look back on HGL, the more I appreciate it. I'd LOVE to see a few nominations for it at Oscar.
I've certainly noted, that the jovial and kind Poppy was more annoying for a few people than the blistering rage inside of Eddie Marsan's Scott....
Still keeping my fingers crossed.

Love the recognition for "Happy-Go-Lucky." It was this close to winning their best picture award. Surprised that they liked it more than "WALL-E" since they were going that route. Sally Hawkins swept NYFCC, LAFCA, & NSFC! Awesome. That should ensure her Oscar nomination, and will be some consolation when one of the heavyweights wins there instead. And Eddie Marsan over Heath Ledger. Wow. That's unexpected. But yay for Sally Hawkins and Mike Leigh.

This is why I love the NSFC. They have their own mind and don't just rubberstamp frontrunners.

Sadly, a lot of their winners won't be Oscar-nominated.

I have a question, though.

Has there ever been a performer who won LAFC, NYFCC and NSFC and didn't get an Oscar nomination?

I just can't imagine Sally Hawkins not getting that Oscar nomination. She won't win, but she'll get nominated. Also, I'm wondering if Melissa Leo will get in, too? Hawkins and Leo will likely get more #1s on Oscar ballots than Angelina Jolie, Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep and even Anne Hathaway. People are passionate about these two performances.

Anyway, what's up with the screenplay award here? The win for HGL is expected, but look at the runner-ups. Those are strange choices indeed.

Wall-E tying HGL for Best Picture might be a good sign for it getting a nomination. They probably wont both make it, and I think Wall-E is the more likely, despite the animation hindrance.

quote:

Originally posted by DoubleD:
I just can't imagine Sally Hawkins not getting that Oscar nomination. She won't win, but she'll get nominated. Also, I'm wondering if Melissa Leo will get in, too? Hawkins and Leo will likely get more #1s on Oscar ballots than Angelina Jolie, Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep and even Anne Hathaway. People are passionate about these two performances.

I guess you really can't imagine because that is not likely to happen. The SAG might have missed out on Hawkins but that had happened to Kiera Knightley, Laura Linney, Nicole Kidman, Samantha Morton etc. Many people have been snubbed by SAG but still managed to get an Oscar nom. With all the wins Hawkins was able to manage, I think it's already safe to assume that she will end up with a spot on the top five.

The way I see it, Hathaway, Hawkins, Streep, and Winsle [for which movie is unsure yet] will fill the four slots. It's a toss up between Jolie and Leo [who is surprising me with thementions] on who'll complete the list.

Bill Murray won best supporting actor from all three groups and did not get an Oscar nomination, so there is at least one example.

(Keep in mind LA has only been around since 1975, NS since 1966).

I still say I will be shocked if Blanchett is not a best actress nominee. I think she is the second most likely after Streep.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

the critical love that sally hawkins has seen....pretty much cements her best actress nomination...pushing out leo and jolie

the 5 actresses will be

streep
winslet
hathaway
hawkins
and either blanchett or kristin scott thomas

the happy go lucky love will most likely add an original screenplay nom for mike leigh...but i think it ends there.

5 original screenplays

milk
rachel getting married
happy go lucky
the visitor
wall- E

quote:

Originally posted by oscarnutlen:
the critical love that sally hawkins has seen....pretty much cements her best actress nomination...pushing out leo and jolie

the 5 actresses will be

streep
winslet
hathaway
hawkins
and either blanchett or kristin scott thomas

the happy go lucky love will most likely add an original screenplay nom for mike leigh...but i think it ends there.

5 original screenplays

milk
rachel getting married
happy go lucky
the visitor
wall- E

I still don't see Hawkins as a lock, even with her wins during the Critics Awards, she missed out on the SAG which is huge. I am not so set on Blanchett getting in either.

quote:

Originally posted by Awardshq:
I still don't see Hawkins as a lock, even with her wins during the Critics Awards, she missed out on the SAG which is huge. I am not so set on Blanchett getting in either.

But hasn't this been happened already that though despite the huge amount of SAG voters, there wasn't a year that they got the 20 acting nominees perfect?

So as much as it might come off as shocking, missing a SAG and getting an Oscar nom still happens.

I dont think she's a lock either. I rarely use that word but in the situation, I guess Streep is the only "lock" we can say. Hathaway is a near second.

Currently, I have "Happy-Go-Lucky" in my predictions to do exactly what "Vera Drake" did: Director, Screenplay, and Actress nods. Seeing Marsan recognized was a pleasure -- he's the best thing about the film -- but I think it's too little too late to start his momentum in a category that already seems to have five candidates more or less locked in (Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel).

I'd say the film itself has about zero chance of securing a Best Picture bid. Too small, too lightweight in tone and subject. That fifth slot is pretty wide open, but I think it's likelier to go to one of the following three films: "The Dark Knight," "Doubt," or "WALL-E." Even "Revolutionary Road" is closer than "Happy"; "Revolutionary" is highly divisive, but those who love it are likelier to rank it #1 on their ballots than the fans of "Happy-Go-Lucky."

The SAG nominations are made by a smaller 2000 person commitee, who got screeners of HGL.

SAG usually misses nominees so I'm still hopeful that Hawkins can snag a spot!

Some nice things here, I particularly like seeing "A Christmas Tale" almost winning Screenplay.

Sally Hawkins may get into Best Actress, but I think the reason she missed the SAG nod, and is not a lock for an Oscar nod even with all these critics mentions, is that a large number of people probably didn't (or won't) make it to the end of their HGL screener. The pace is just so excruciating. This film simply doesn't have the mainstream appeal of "Vera Drake" or "Secrets and Lies". Reverence for Mike Leigh will only get it so far - and that will definitely not be the same trifecta Vera Drake pulled off, imo.