As it has gone the last few months (or if you've read the third Speculation Series topic), many believe this year's Actress race to already be slimmed down to Winslet vs. Streep. However, there are also those of us who are skeptical, (a) because we weren't sure about their performances yet, and (b) because last year, almost none of the speculated women were in the Final Five.
My question is, could a case arise in which voters simply can't decide, and settle with Jolie, another very plausible nominee. Or perhaps we're setting our eyes on these two women, and neglecting in Jolie what may turn out to be the actual best female performance of the year.
Could the Winslet/Streep faceoff lead to a Jolie victory? Is Jolie even a definite nominee choice? If so, could she win the Oscar deservedly?
Your thoughts...
P.S. Here is one of many Cannes reviews for Changeling, one that hails Eastwood, the script, and (most important to this discussion) Jolie's performance:
PICTURE: Revolutionary Road DIRECTOR: David Fincher, Curious Case of Benjamin Button ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road or Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Doubt or Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, Dark Knight or Robert Downey, Jr., The Soloist SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams, Doubt, or Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Burn After Reading or Milk ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Frost/Nixon, Doubt, or Benjamin Button ANIMATED FEATURE: Wall.E
Posts: 602 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson: Could the Winslet/Streep faceoff lead to a Jolie victory? Is Jolie even a definite nominee choice? If so, could she win the Oscar deservedly?
When I was trying to pick out my choices for The Film Experience's Best Actress contest, I did wonder if the Academy would perhaps ignore Eastwood again, since I figured that he can't keep getting nominations now everytime he makes a movie since they do eventually nominate other people, (I also had this thought about Sam Mendes and some other directors as well.) Luckily, I went against my doubts and picked Jolie for one of my choices if the early reviews are any indication.
Mainly, I thought that if The Curious Case of Benjamin Button does well enough or at least if Brad Pitt gives a good enough performance that they'll nominate the Brangelina together (just imagine how high the ratings would be then). Not that it would be solely because of the television ratings, but it surely would be something that stuck in some voters' minds. Of course, it could work the opposite way where maybe people resent the fortune that the Brangelina already has and don't vote for them because of that. However, since I think that may have been part of the reason Jolie was snubbed last year for A Mighty Heart that this year that she'll get in, and that may bring him in along with her if the movie meets financial expectations and doesn't turn out to be another The Fountain or anything.
So I think she has a good chance of getting in for at least a nomination, but I'm not too sure about a win. It's likely that the movie seems like it will be nominated for Best Picture which will help her chances on winning a second Oscar especially one almost ten years later, but Revolutionary Road and Doubt could also be Best Picture nominees which may cancel out Changeling being one for Jolie. Also, while Hilary Swank may have made a lot of crap in between wins, Jolie may have topped that because for awhile, at least imo, it seemed that she wasn't even really concerned about her career whereas with Swank at least on paper her choices seemed to make sense, the final product just didn't turn out that well. That may be a factor that hurts her depending on as well as whether people think she already has too much already, so the nomination is seen as enough of a reward than giving her a second win.
I don't know it just depends on how great her performance truly is. However right now, if it came down to her, Streep, and Winslet, I think she would lose because Streep and Winslet are seen as being more overdue, and I would imagine their movies would have more impact than Being Julia.
To tell you the truth, I just can't tell right now. I don't even have Jolie on my list for the top 5 for my best actress catagory... she is number 6, but that could change at any time. Jolie will have a huge chance at getting nominated, considering many reviews have been positive for her so far, so she definetly is a contender for the gold, but I'm not sure about winning just yet... In my mind right now, it is still a Streep vs. Winslet race. And if you're curious, this is my Best Actress line-up:
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky Meryl Streep, Doubt Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Next In Line: Angelina Jolie, Changeling
I like Anne Hathaway and this is gonna be her year. She is building major buzz right now that is gonna help her big time, and plus she has many other major movies out like Get Smart. Then there's Emily Blunt, who is a wonderful actress, and is the "period-piece nominee." *Think about it, there normally is a nominee like that... And then there's Sally Hawkins! She has got amazing reviews so far for Happy Go Lucky, and plus, it's a Mike Leigh film, and he tends to have good luck with his leading women when it comes to nominations. Plus, she is a fresh face, and lately, oscars like that (ex.: Ellen Page, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Imelda Staunton, Amy Adams,...). And also may I point out, we have Hathaway, Blunt, and Streep - notice anything? They all starred in The Devil Wears Prada! So yeah... But back to my predictions, we then have Streep and Winslet to finish it out... But then I do have Jolie in that 6th spot. For some reason, I have this feeling that becuase the oscars snubbed her for A Mighty Heart last year, she may either 1) have a hard time getting in again or 2) get in easily because the oscar voters feel bad about last year - that's why I'm on the rocks. For now, I'm gonna keep her in the 6th spot, and later on I will decide whether I will change her or not, but I gotta see first! But for now, those are my predictions.
2009 Oscars FYC:
Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Lead Actress - Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky Supporting Actor - Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Doubt Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor
Posts: 2262 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006
I think Angelina Jolie will be nominated but she won't win.
For Your Emmy Consideration: Kyra Sedgwick - Best Actress in a Drama Series "Damages" - Best Drama Series Zeljko Ivanek - Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series Glynn Turman - Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Posts: 14225 | Location: Natal, RN, Brazil | Registered: October 21, 2002
Originally posted by Egg Fu: I think that a split is more likely to result in a Hawkins win.
Even if she wins the majority of the critics' prizes nobody that unknown is going to win best actress especially in a line-up dominated by acclaimed movie stars. It just is not going to happen. She's much more obscure than Imelda Staunton or Brenda Blethyn were at the time of their best actress nominations and they couldn't pull off the win despite critics and Cannes kudos.
The fact that Jolie, Winslet and Streep are in likely best picture nominees is another aspect in their favor that I doubt will apply to Hawkins.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,
Posts: 13021 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Originally posted by Egg Fu: I think that a split is more likely to result in a Hawkins win.
Even if she wins the majority of the critics' prizes nobody that unknown is going to win best actress especially in a line-up dominated by acclaimed movie stars. It just is not going to happen. She's much more obscure than Imelda Staunton or Brenda Blethyn were at the time of their best actress nominations and they couldn't pull off the win despite critics and Cannes kudos.
The fact that Jolie, Winslet and Streep are in likely best picture nominees is another aspect in their favor that I doubt will apply to Hawkins.
And how do you factor Cotillard into this equation?
Originally posted by Egg Fu: I think that a split is more likely to result in a Hawkins win.
Even if she wins the majority of the critics' prizes nobody that unknown is going to win best actress especially in a line-up dominated by acclaimed movie stars. It just is not going to happen. She's much more obscure than Imelda Staunton or Brenda Blethyn were at the time of their best actress nominations and they couldn't pull off the win despite critics and Cannes kudos.
The fact that Jolie, Winslet and Streep are in likely best picture nominees is another aspect in their favor that I doubt will apply to Hawkins.
And how do you factor Cotillard into this equation?
Good point. She was undoubtedly obscure though had been in some Hollywood films. I would say that her performance in "La Vie En Rose" had bravura aspects (famous person, drug addiction, alcoholism, aging onscreen, etc) that Hawkins' role does not have. Her being a sexy young woman in person with a lot of star power did not hurt.
Posts: 13021 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Originally posted by Egg Fu: ...Hathaway, then? Lange? I could see Blanchett or Blunt as possible nominees but not winners.
Unless disappointing reviews hamper their chances I agree with the general consensus that it is Streep vs Winslet with Streep having the edge due to the Tony winning role. Should somebody be in third, a distant third, I say its Jolie who got acclaim at Cannes, the film will almost certainly be a best picture nominee and should be in play to win, and she is about as big and glamorous a movie star as we have right now. Being passed over last year could help her due to the sympathy factor.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,
Posts: 13021 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Changeling is going to be the film that is a strong piece of work but nothing that'll WIN best picture... think of it as a Gosford Park or a Seabiscuit, not a NCFOM.
Hawkins could always pull an Art Carney, but he had Globe support that I don't expect her to get even though she could very well get lots of critical support (I'm expecting LAFCA to take notice).
Originally posted by Egg Fu: Changeling is going to be the film that is a strong piece of work but nothing that'll WIN best picture... think of it as a Gosford Park or a Seabiscuit, not a NCFOM.
The strong reviews suggest otherwise.. though there are some dissenters. It will be in play to win best picture from the major critics' prizes (it wouldn't even surprise me if it wins the majority of them) and I see it as the biggest competition to "Revolutionary Road" in winning best picture at the Oscars. Clint Eastwood already having two best pictures is the main issue I see hurting it. Well, that and it seems too dark and serious to do great things at the box-office.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,
Posts: 13021 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Originally posted by Egg Fu: Hawkins could always pull an Art Carney, but he had Globe support that I don't expect her to get even though she could very well get lots of critical support (I'm expecting LAFCA to take notice).
I have in other threads predicted she will win the majority of the critic' prizes. Despite that I still do not see her having much chance of winning the Oscar.
Posts: 13021 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Originally posted by Egg Fu: ...Hathaway, then? Lange? I could see Blanchett or Blunt as possible nominees but not winners.
I think Lange will go supporting, but even if she goes lead instead, I can't see her winning three Oscars before Streep wins three especially since she won a leading one already for a not so good movie. Speaking of Lange though, I never even had Drew Barrymore in mind for a leading nomination, but after seeing some Oscar prognosticators predict her already, I'm bracing myself for it. I really couldn't imagine it unless it was a Lifetime Achievement Award or perhaps a supporting turn in something, but with the right role, anyone who is successful as she has been, has had the comeback story that she's had, comes from the family that she does, and is as liked as she is could get in and even win if she pulls off one of those beautiful girl transforms into ugly person that voters love. Plus, she's in a biopic. I really can't see it happening, but I guess it's no more unlikely than thinking about Halle Berry and Charlize Theron ever winning or being nominated for an Oscar before I saw the former in The Dorothy Dandridge Story and saw the latter in The Yards. I just really have to brace myself for it. I mean she seems like a really nice person, but she's going to have to overcome a lot of baggage for me to believe that she could be nominated let alone win over the likes of Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet.
Other than that, if Cheri does managed to get released this year, which I doubt, and fares well with critics, I could see Michelle Pfeiffer finally winning if Streep and Winslet somehow split the vote. There's also Diane Lane as a possibility, but my personal feeling is that Nights in Rodanthe won't do that well. Also, Nicole Kidman if Australia is nominated for Best Picture, and it sweeps. Although, she may not even be included in that sweep since perhaps having a happy personal life might hurt her this time.
Other than that, I see a lot of potential nominees out there (Sally Hawkins, Emily Blunt, Keira Knightley, Anne Hathaway, Sophie Okonedo, Natalie Portman) but if it does come down between Streep and Winslet, I don't see a newcomer or young person winning since I don't think the roles would be as juicy as Streep's, there's no due factor at all which means I think the nomination will be seen as the reward for them, and their films probably won't be nominated for Best Picture like Winslet's and perhaps even Streep's will be.
quote:
And how do you factor Cotillard into this equation?
I would also add that none of the other four Best Actress nominees last year were movie stars other than Cate Blanchett, but even then she wasn't going to win for a sequel especially one that didn't manage to even equal the first movie. Page was too young. Christie already won, and the shadow of Iris may have hurt her. Linney was lucky that she got nominated; although, I think that if she had got more attention earlier on, she would have made it a potential three to four way race (depending on whether or not Ellen Page was really a factor). Of course, Blanchett had won a few years ago, and The Golden Age didn't do well enough to make her a legitimate contender.
I think it's much different this year if Streep, Winslet, and Hawkins are all nominated because Streep and Winslet are certainly more overdue which will help them. More importantly, as pacinofan mentioned, Hawkins doesn't have the kind of role that voters usually reward, and Doubt and Revolutionary Road have the potential to pick up multiple nominations including Best Picture. I do see Happy Go Lucky getting a Best Original Screenplay nomination, but I don't see a Best Director nomination this time unless the other Oscar bait falters.
(This last bit reminds me someone should start a speculation series on the Clint Eastwood and Spike Lee feud right now and how that might come into play during the Oscar race. I would, but my topics never do that well. It might be nice to get away from the Best Actress race for now since I fear that the Streep vs. Winslet factions are going to be even nastier than some of other Oscar races. I could be wrong, but they both have a great number of devoted fans, for good reason of course, and it could get ugly. I love both, but right now, I guess I'm in the Winslet faction since I would like to be one of the few here that I've seen so far that want a Titanic reunion to happen at the Oscars.)
With Drew Barrymore (though I think she'll go supporting), AMPAS loves it when big stars with so far unseen talent give halfway-decent performances - remember Kim Basinger's win? She was crud, but apparently the performance was enough.
Originally posted by Egg Fu: ...Hathaway, then? Lange? I could see Blanchett or Blunt as possible nominees but not winners.
I think Lange will go supporting, but even if she goes lead instead, I can't see her winning three Oscars before Streep wins three especially since she won a leading one already for a not so good movie. Speaking of Lange though, I never even had Drew Barrymore in mind for a leading nomination, but after seeing some Oscar prognosticators predict her already, I'm bracing myself for it. I really couldn't imagine it unless it was a Lifetime Achievement Award or perhaps a supporting turn in something, but with the right role, anyone who is successful as she has been, has had the comeback story that she's had, comes from the family that she does, and is as liked as she is could get in and even win if she pulls off one of those beautiful girl transforms into ugly person that voters love. Plus, she's in a biopic. I really can't see it happening, but I guess it's no more unlikely than thinking about Halle Berry and Charlize Theron ever winning or being nominated for an Oscar before I saw the former in The Dorothy Dandridge Story and saw the latter in The Yards. I just really have to brace myself for it. I mean she seems like a really nice person, but she's going to have to overcome a lot of baggage for me to believe that she could be nominated let alone win over the likes of Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet.
Other than that, if Cheri does managed to get released this year, which I doubt, and fares well with critics, I could see Michelle Pfeiffer finally winning if Streep and Winslet somehow split the vote. There's also Diane Lane as a possibility, but my personal feeling is that Nights in Rodanthe won't do that well. Also, Nicole Kidman if Australia is nominated for Best Picture, and it sweeps. Although, she may not even be included in that sweep since perhaps having a happy personal life might hurt her this time.
Other than that, I see a lot of potential nominees out there (Sally Hawkins, Emily Blunt, Keira Knightley, Anne Hathaway, Sophie Okonedo, Natalie Portman) but if it does come down between Streep and Winslet, I don't see a newcomer or young person winning since I don't think the roles would be as juicy as Streep's, there's no due factor at all which means I think the nomination will be seen as the reward for them, and their films probably won't be nominated for Best Picture like Winslet's and perhaps even Streep's will be.
quote:
And how do you factor Cotillard into this equation?
I would also add that none of the other four Best Actress nominees last year were movie stars other than Cate Blanchett, but even then she wasn't going to win for a sequel especially one that didn't manage to even equal the first movie. Page was too young. Christie already won, and the shadow of Iris may have hurt her. Linney was lucky that she got nominated; although, I think that if she had got more attention earlier on, she would have made it a potential three to four way race (depending on whether or not Ellen Page was really a factor). Of course, Blanchett had won a few years ago, and The Golden Age didn't do well enough to make her a legitimate contender.
I think it's much different this year if Streep, Winslet, and Hawkins are all nominated because Streep and Winslet are certainly more overdue which will help them. More importantly, as pacinofan mentioned, Hawkins doesn't have the kind of role that voters usually reward, and Doubt and Revolutionary Road have the potential to pick up multiple nominations including Best Picture. I do see Happy Go Lucky getting a Best Original Screenplay nomination, but I don't see a Best Director nomination this time unless the other Oscar bait falters.
(This last bit reminds me someone should start a speculation series on the Clint Eastwood and Spike Lee feud right now and how that might come into play during the Oscar race. I would, but my topics never do that well. It might be nice to get away from the Best Actress race for now since I fear that the Streep vs. Winslet factions are going to be even nastier than some of other Oscar races. I could be wrong, but they both have a great number of devoted fans, for good reason of course, and it could get ugly. I love both, but right now, I guess I'm in the Winslet faction since I would like to be one of the few here that I've seen so far that want a Titanic reunion to happen at the Oscars.)
1. Cheri is gonna be released in 2009, so it will not be elligible this year.
2. Eastwood may get a nomination for Changeling, but I don't suspect Lee to get a nomination for Miracle At St. Anna. Quite frankly, the trailer sucked! The only nomination I can see St. Anna getting is for sound editing...
2009 Oscars FYC:
Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Lead Actress - Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky Supporting Actor - Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Doubt Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor
Posts: 2262 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006
