Leading you into awards seaon as I always do! This thread will replace the old one and will provide an outlet for your prediction/prognostication urges until the major precursors noms & wins (Globes, critics groups, Critics Choice etc) start getting announced and the race REALLY begins to take shape. We've had a lot of contenders added to the race because of Toronto/Telluride/Venice, but we've also had quite a few weeded out. Here's some updated derbies - I haven't been as selective this time around because the race is so chaotic right now. Each race is full of every possible contender.

Please note that not all the films on the derby have distribution deals yet, so there's no guarantee that all of the films listed will be released in America this year.

Please ALSO note that not all of these films will be considered eligible under current Academy rules. Some of these films played/will play on VOD before, or at the same time as, they were released in theatres. Unless the Academy changes its eligibility requirements before voting time, these films will NOT be considered eligible. However, I have included them here for the sake of completeness (and, of course, if the Academy decides to make a last-minute rule change to accomodate this new trend).

First derby - Best Picture - after the jump.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Boomer,

BEST PICTURE

Frontrunners
"The Hurt Locker"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"Up in the Air"

Lead Ponies
"Bright Star"
"An Education"
"Invictus"
"Nine"
"A Serious Man"
"A Single Man"
"Up"

In the Running
"Amelia"
"Capitalism: A Love Story"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Julie & Julia"
"The Last Station"
"The Lovely Bones"
"Where the Wild Things Are"

Long Shots
"(500) Days of Summer"
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"Mother and Child"
"Sherlock Holmes"
"The Tree of Life"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

BEST DIRECTOR

Frontrunners
Kathryn Bigelow, for "The Hurt Locker"
Jason Reitman, for "Up in the Air"

Lead Ponies
Jane Campion, for "Bright Star"
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, for "A Serious Man"
Lee Daniels, for "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Clint Eastwood, in "Invictus"
Tom Ford, in "A Single Man"
Michael Haneke, for "The White Ribbon"
Peter Jackson, for "The Lovely Bones"
Spike Jonze, for "Where the Wild Things Are"
Rob Marshall, for "Nine"

In the Running
Jacques Audiard, for "A Prophet"
Neill Blomkamp, for "District 9"
James Cameron, for "Avatar"
Pete Docter, for "Up"
Michael Hoffman, for "The Hurt Locker"
Mira Nair, for "Amelia"
Lone Scherfig, for "An Education"
Quentin Tarantino, for "Inglourious Basterds"

Long Shots
Pedro Almodovar, for "Broken Embraces"
Drew Barrymore, for "Whip It!"
Xavier Dolan, for "I Killed My Mother"
Rodrigo Garcia, for "Mother and Child"
Jessica Hausner, for "Lourdes"
Werner Herzog, for "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans"
Lu Chuan, for "City of Life and Death"
Terrence Malick, for "The Tree of Life"
Samuel Maoz, for "Lebanon"
Guy Ritchie, for "Sherlock Holmes"
Marc Webb, for "(500) Days of Summer"
Nicolas Winding Refn, for "Bronson"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

BEST ACTOR

Frontrunners
George Clooney, in "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, in "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, in "Invictus"

Lead Ponies
Matt Damon, in "The Informant!"
Daniel Day-Lewis, in "Nine"
Viggo Mortensen, in "The Road"
Christopher Plummer, in "The Last Station"
Jeremy Renner, in "The Hurt Locker"
Sam Rockwell, in "Moon"
Michael Stuhlbarg, in "A Serious Man"

In the Running
Paul Bettany, in "Creation"
Michael Caine, in "Harry Brown"
Robert De Niro, in "Everybody's Fine"
Johnny Depp, in "Public Enemies"
Michael Douglas, in "Solitary Man"
Robert Downey, Jr., in "Sherlock Holmes"
Ben Foster, in "The Messenger"
Ricky Gervais, in "The Invention of Lying"
Jake Gyllenhaal, in "Brothers"
Hal Holbrook, in "That Evening Sun"
Aaron Johnson, in "Nowhere Boy"
Clive Owen, in "The Boys Are Back"
Brad Pitt, in "The Tree of Life"
Mark Wahlberg, in "The Lovely Bones"
Ben Whishaw, in "Bright Star"

Long Shots
Nicolas Cage, in "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans"
Michael Caine, in "Is Anybody There?"
George Clooney, in "The Men Who Stare at Goats"
Willem Dafoe, in "Antichrist"
Hugh Dancy, in "Adam"
Xavier Dolan, in "I Killed My Mother"
Alden Ehrenreich, in "Tetro"
Colin Farrell, in "Ondine"
Colin Farrell, in "Triage"
Andy Garcia, in "City Island"
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, in "(500) Days of Summer"
Tom Hardy, in "Bronson"
Ethan Hawke, in "Brooklyn's Finest"
Ciaran Hinds, in "The Eclipse"
Sotigui Kouyate, in "London River"
John Malkovich, in "Disgrace"
Ewan McGregor, in "The Men Who Stare at Goats"
Edward Norton, in "Leaves of Grass"
Patton Oswalt, in "Big Fan"
Joaquin Phoenix, in "Two Lovers"
Pablo Pineda, in "Me, Too"
Tahar Rahim, in "A Prophet"
Seth Rogen, in "Observe and Report"
Adam Sandler, in "Funny People"
Michael Sheen, in "The Damned United"
Song Kang-ho, in "Thirst"
Red West, in "Goodbye Solo"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

BEST ACTRESS

Frontrunners
Carey Mulligan, in "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep, in "Julie & Julia"

Lead Ponies
Annette Bening, in "Mother and Child"
Abbie Cornish, in "Bright Star"
Helen Mirren, in "The Last Station"
Michelle Pfeiffer, in "Cheri"
Saoirse Ronan, in "The Lovely Bones"
Hilary Swank, in "Amelia"
Tilda Swinton, in "Julia"
Rachel Weisz, in "The Lovely Bones"

In the Running
Amy Adams, in "Sunshine Cleaning"
Shohreh Aghdashloo, in "The Stoning of Soraya M."
Brenda Blethyn, in "London River"
Penelope Cruz, in "Broken Embraces"
Charlotte Gainsbourg, in "Antichrist"
Katie Jarvis, in "Fish Tank"
Michelle Monaghan, in "Trucker"
Natalie Portman, in "Brothers"
Natalie Portman, in "Love & Other Impossible Pursuits"
Meryl Streep, in "It's Complicated"
Audrey Tautou, in "Coco Before Chanel"
Charlize Theron, in "The Burning Plain"
Emily Watson, in "Within the Whirlwind"
Evan Rachel Wood, in "Whatever Works"
Robin Wright Penn, in "The Private Lives of Pippa Lee"

Long Shots
Hiam Abbass, in "Lemon Tree"
Isabelle Adjani, in "Skirt Day"
Alicja Bachleda, in "Ondine"
Halle Berry, in "Frankie and Alice"
Emily Blunt, in "The Young Victoria"
Jennifer Connelly, in "Creation"
Zooey Deschanel, in "(500) Days of Summer"
Anne Dorval, in "I Killed My Mother"
Lola Duenas, in "Me, Too"
Vera Farmiga, in "Orphan"
Sasha Grey, in "The Girlfriend Experience"
Krystyna Janda, in "Sweet Rush"
Ashley Judd, in "Helen"
Liya Kebede, in "Desert Flower"
Catherine Keener, in "Please Give"
Kim Hye-ja, in "Mother"
Kim Ok-vin, in "Thirst"
Melissa Leo, in "Stephanie's Image"
Giovanna Mezzogiorno, in "Vincere"
Birgit Minichmayr, in "Everyone Else"
Helen Mirren, in "Love Ranch"
Julianne Moore, in "Chloe"
Yolande Moreau, in "Seraphine"
Sophie Okonedo, in "Skin"
Ellen Page, in "Whip It!"
Gwyneth Paltrow, in "Two Lovers"
Kseniya Rappoport, in "The Double Hour"
Maya Rudolph, in "Away We Go"
Catalina Saavedra, in "The Maid"
Susan Sarandon, in "The Greatest"
Tilda Swinton, in "I Am Love"
Sylvie Testud, in "Lourdes"
Rachel Weisz, in "Agora"
Rachel Weisz, in "The Brothers Bloom"
Renee Zellweger, in "My One and Only"
Renee Zellweger, in "My Own Love Song"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Frontrunners
Christoph Waltz, in "Inglourious Basterds"

Lead Ponies
Matt Damon, in "Invictus"
Samuel L. Jackson, in "Mother and Child"
Anthony Mackie, in "The Hurt Locker"
Tobey Maguire, in "Brothers"
James McAvoy, in "The Last Station"
Alfred Molina, in "An Education"
Paul Schneider, in "Bright Star"
Stanley Tucci, in "The Lovely Bones"

In the Running
Jeff Bridges, in "The Men Who Stare at Goats"
Robert Duvall, in "The Road"
Richard Gere, in "Amelia"
Woody Harrelson, in "The Messenger"
Richard Kind, in "A Serious Man"
Christian McKay, in "Me and Orson Welles"
Sean Penn, in "The Tree of Life"
Christopher Plummer, in "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"
Peter Sarsgaard, in "An Education"
Liev Schreiber, in "Taking Woodstock"

Long Shots
Niels Arestrup, in "A Prophet"
Eric Bana, in "Funny People"
Daniel Bruhl, in "Inglourious Basterds"
Peter Capaldi, in "In the Loop"
Michael Fassbender, in "Fish Tank"
Christian Friedel, in "The White Ribbon"
Vincent Gallo, in "Tetro"
James Gandolfini, in "In the Loop"
Richard Gere, in "Brooklyn's Finest"
Ciaran Hinds, in "Life During Wartime"
Burghart Klaussner, in "The White Ribbon"
Jude Law, in "Sherlock Holmes"
Ewan McGregor, in "Amelia"
Ray McKinnon, in "That Evening Sun"
Fred Melamed, in "A Serious Man"
Seth Rogen, in "Funny People"
Filippo Timi, in "Vincere"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Frontrunners
Mo'Nique, in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Julianne Moore, in "A Single Man"

Lead Ponies
Marion Cotillard, in "Nine"
Marion Cotillard, in "Public Enemies"
Penelope Cruz, in "Nine"
Judi Dench, in "Nine"
Vera Farmiga, in "Up in the Air"
Anna Kendrick, in "Up in the Air"
Melanie Laurent, in "Inglourious Basterds"
Rose McIver, in "The Lovely Bones"
Rosamund Pike, in "An Education"
Susan Sarandon, in "The Lovely Bones"
Naomi Watts, in "Mother and Child"

In the Running
Kathy Bates, in "Cheri"
Jessica Chastain, in "The Tree of Life"
Patricia Clarkson, in "Whatever Works"
Lisa Kudrow, in "Love & Other Impossible Pursuits"
Sari Lennick, in "A Serious Man"
Sophia Loren, in "Nine"
Jane Lynch, in "Julie & Julia"
Kristin Scott Thomas, in "Nowhere Boy"
Amanda Seyfried, in "Chloe"
Charlize Theron, in "The Road"
Emma Thompson, in "An Education"
Kerry Washington, in "Mother and Child"
Sigourney Weaver, in "Avatar"
Betty White, in "The Proposal"

Long Shots
Kim Basinger, in "The Burning Plain"
Mariah Carey, in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Carolyn Dando, in "The Lovely Bones"
Anne-Marie Duff, in "Is Anybody There?"
Roxane Duran, in "The White Ribbon"
Isabelle Fuhrman, in "Orphan"
Jessica Haines, in "Disgrace"
Shirley Henderson, in "Life During Wartime"
Allison Janney, in "Life During Wartime"
Mimi Kennedy, in "In the Loop"
Diane Kruger, in "Inglourious Basterds"
Jennifer Lawrence, in "The Burning Plain"
Melissa Leo, in "Everybody's Fine"
Susanne Lothar, in "The White Ribbon"
Melanie Lynskey, in "The Informant!"
Leslie Mann, in "Funny People"
Mozhan Marno, in "The Stoning of Soraya M."
Samantha Morton, in "The Messenger"
Carey Mulligan, in "The Greatest"
Frances O'Connor, in "Blessed"
Blanca Portillo, in "Broken Embraces"
Carrie Preston, in "That Evening Sun"
Fiona Shaw, in "The Tree of Life"
Vinessa Shaw, in "Two Lovers"
Maribel Verdu, in "Tetro"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Frontrunners
"An Education"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"Up in the Air"

Lead Ponies
"Amelia"
"The Informant!"
"Invictus"
"The Lovely Bones"
"Nine"
"A Serious Man"
"A Single Man"
"Where the Wild Things Are"

In the Running
"Cheri"
"Julie & Julia"
"The Last Station"
"Love & Other Impossible Pursuits"
"The Men Who Stare At Goats"
"The Road"
"Taking Woodstock"
"Whip It!"

Long Shots
"Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans"
"The Damned United"
"Disgrace"
"Julia"
"The Private Lives of Pippa Lee"
"Sweet Rush"
"That Evening Sun"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Frontrunners
"Bright Star"
"The Hurt Locker"

Lead Ponies
"(500) Days of Summer"
"Broken Embraces"
"District 9"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"The Invention of Lying"
"A Prophet"
"The Tree of Life"
"Up"
"The White Ribbon"
"Mother and Child"

In the Running
"Avatar"
"City of Life and Death"
"Everybody's Fine"
"Fish Tank"
"Funny People"
"I Killed My Mother"
"In the Loop"
"Lebanon"
"Life During Wartime"
"London River"
"The Messenger"
"Whatever Works"
"The Young Victoria"

Long Shots
"Accident"
"Antichrist"
"Big Fan"
"Blessed"
"Bronson"
"The Burning Plain"
"City Island"
"The Double Hour"
"Everyone Else"
"Frankie and Alice"
"The Greatest"
"Lourdes"
"Mother"
"My One and Only"
"Observe and Report"
"The Refuge"
"Sherlock Holmes"
"Solitary Man"
"Tetro"
"Two Lovers"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

Sticky please, Boomer! You can un-sticky and lock the old thread~

My predictions for the beginning of October:

Best Picture:
"Bright Star"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"The Lovely Bones"
"Nine"
*** "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"A Serious Man"
"A Single Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

Best Director:
*** Kathryn Bigelow, for "The Hurt Locker"
Jane Campion, for "Bright Star"
Lee Daniels, for "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Michael Haneke, for "The White Ribbon"
Jason Reitman, for "Up in the Air"

Best Actor:
George Clooney, in "Up in the Air"
Matt Damon, in "The Informant!"
*** Colin Firth, in "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, in "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, in "The Hurt Locker"

Best Actress:
Abbie Cornish, in "Bright Star"
*** Carey Mulligan, in "An Education"
Saoirse Ronan, in "The Lovely Bones"
Gabourey Sidibe, in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep, in "Julie & Julia"

Best Supporting Actor:
Anthony Mackie, in "The Hurt Locker"
*** Alfred Molina, in "An Education"
Paul Schneider, in "Bright Star"
Stanley Tucci, in "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, in "Inglourious Basterds"

Best Supporting Actress:
Vera Farmiga, in "Up in the Air"
Anna Kendrick, in "Up in the Air"
Melanie Laurent, in "Inglourious Basterds"
*** Mo'Nique, in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Julianne Moore, in "A Single Man"

Best Adapted Screenplay:
"An Education"
"The Lovely Bones"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"A Single Man"
*** "Up in the Air"

Best Original Screenplay:
"Bright Star"
*** "The Hurt Locker"
"A Prophet"
"Up"
"The White Ribbon"

Best Foreign-Language Film:
"I Can't Live Without You" - Taiwan
*** "Letters to Father Jacob" - Finland
"A Prophet" - France
"The Secret in Their Eyes" - Argentina
"The White Ribbon" - Germany

Best Animated Feature Film:
"Ponyo"
"The Princess and the Frog"
*** "Up"

Best Documentary Feature - TBD
Best Documentary Short - TBD
Best Live-Action Short - TBD
Best Animated Short - TBD

Best Art Direction:
"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"
*** "Nine"
"A Serious Man"
"A Single Man"

Best Cinematography:
"Amelia"
"Bright Star"
*** "A Single Man"
"The Tree of Life"
"The White Ribbon"

Best Costume Design:
"Bright Star"
"Cheri"
*** "Inglourious Basterds"
"Nine"
"Public Enemies"

Best Film Editing:
"District 9"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Nine"
*** "The Hurt Locker"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Best Makeup:
*** "District 9"
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"
"Star Trek"

Best Original Score:
"Amelia"
"Coco Before Chanel"
"The Lovely Bones"
"The Road"
*** "Up"

Best Original Song:
*** "Nine"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"The Princess and the Frog"
"Up in the Air"
"Where the Wild Things Are"

Best Sound Editing:
*** "Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"The Lovely Bones"
"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"
"Up"

Best Sound Mixing:
"Avatar"
*** "The Hurt Locker"
"Nine"
"Sherlock Holmes"
"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"

Best Visual Effects:
*** "Avatar"
"District 9"
"Where the Wild Things Are"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

How do you feel pux about Amelia making the top ten, esp without Hilary Swank for best actress? If she starts to gain substantial traction who would you drop from your list?

Love that you have two women for best director.

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
Love that you have two women for best director.

Lotsa good that'll do... the Oscar will go to what ever male-directred movie gets anointed this year's frontrunner (like Slumdog Millionaire last year).

Sorry if I YAWN.

Well maybe,.....for now. These things take time.
But, has there ever been two women nominated for best director before, and in the same year?

And there could be even more.

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
Well maybe,.....for now. These things take time.
But, has there ever been two women nominated for best director before, and in the same year?

And there could be even more.

Not disputing "these things take time," but it's still a man's world, at least in the film industry where these woman-directed features hardly made a blip on the radar, excuse me while I scratch myself and belch.

Why the assumption that Morgan Freeman is lead in Invictus?

Isn't the story more about the rugby team, its coach and players, with Mandela being more in the back ground?

I could see Damon lead for this (Informant seems a real long shot), and Freeman supporting (as well of course as a producer/best picture nominee).

In the unlikely event Hanecke is a best director nominee, then White Ribbon probably makes it as a best picture nominee (it might have a better chance there than FL film).

I also expect Capitalism to get a bunch of #1s, and be competitive for a BP nomination.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

quote:

Originally posted by Pucifer:

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
Well maybe,.....for now. These things take time.
But, has there ever been two women nominated for best director before, and in the same year?

And there could be even more.

Not disputing "these things take time," but it's still a man's world, at least in the film industry where these woman-directed features hardly made a blip on the radar, excuse me while I scratch myself and belch.

I still feel that Bigelow, could win.

And Seanflynn, if Morgan Freeman is nominated at all, I think it'll be as lead, for several reasons, not the least of which, is his stature as an actor. He may not need a lot of screen time.

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:

quote:

Originally posted by Pucifer:

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
Well maybe,.....for now. These things take time.
But, has there ever been two women nominated for best director before, and in the same year?

And there could be even more.

Not disputing "these things take time," but it's still a man's world, at least in the film industry where these woman-directed features hardly made a blip on the radar, excuse me while I scratch myself and belch.

I still feel that Bigelow, could win.

Well, I hope you're right. Still, it took Scorsese what, over 25 years to win? It's not always about the quality of the work, is it?

Kathryn Bigelow has been working as a director for over thirty years puce. Her work is 'edgey' and has fallen under the radar true.

quote:

And Seanflynn, if Morgan Freeman is nominated at all, I think it'll be as lead, for several reasons, not the least of which, is his stature as an actor. He may not need a lot of screen time.

But if Damon is clearly the lead, and with studios loathe to have two same gender actors competiting for the same film/category, they wouldn't push Damon for supporting. And it is in their marketing interests to push Damon as the lead as well for multiple reasons.

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
Kathryn Bigelow has been working as a director for over thirty years puce. Her work is 'edgey' and has fallen under the radar true.

She will likely do best at the critics' awards but if she does not repeat at the Oscars I believe it will mainly be due to her film being little seen rather than her being a woman. I currently predict she will win best director and some other film will win best picture, I say "Up in the Air", due to her film's lack of popularity but that factor could prove even more problematic than that.