Actuals are in for Bruno: $8,318,385, a decline of 72.8%. They indeed held onto 4th this weekend:

5 The Proposal $8,289,707
6 The Hangover $8,177,272

So Bruno is tied for the 29th worst drop from an opening weekend ever with 1996's Big Bully. Not the kind of top 30 list a movie or anyone who partook in its creation wants to be a part of.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: PaulHan,

Wow, The Proposal and The Hangover continue to hold on very well.

Most important number of the weekend was 500 Days of Summer's gross - $834,000 in 27 theatres, good enough for 12th place, but more importantly a PSA of $31,000, excellent for a film that is playing wider than just a core NY/LA platform initially.

Fox Searchlight seems back to its winning ways; this looks like it will be the success Away We Go hoped to be among younger upscale audiences.

Hurt Locker lumbers along, still only at $2.1 million despite expanding within the largest markets and having opened in all the top cities. Short of end of the year critics' groups awards, this is going to stuggle at the Oscars (it doesn't seem like the kind of film - i.e., good on its own merits - that the GGs or BCs care much about unless shamed into nominating it; SAG chances seem nil).

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Most important number of the weekend was 500 Days of Summer's gross - $834,000 in 27 theatres, good enough for 12th place, but more importantly a PSA of $31,000, excellent for a film that is playing wider than just a core NY/LA platform initially.

Fox Searchlight seems back to its winning ways; this looks like it will be the success Away We Go hoped to be among younger upscale audiences.

Hurt Locker lumbers along, still only at $2.1 million despite expanding within the largest markets and having opened in all the top cities. Short of end of the year critics' groups awards, this is going to stuggle at the Oscars (it doesn't seem like the kind of film - i.e., good on its own merits - that the GGs or BCs care much about unless shamed into nominating it; SAG chances seem nil).

Do you think "The Hurt Locker" would be re-released should it win the majority of critics awards? How soon do you think it will be out on DVD? Do you expect it to go ON DEMAND soon?

I would imagine it will go out on DVD on a normal schedule, perhaps geared to year-end awards in December.

It no longer makes sense to re-release films, particularly weak performing (compared to potential) ones during the height of the Oscar-bait movies competing for attention. The audiences who might care already have been told (essentially) that it's the film of the year, and for the most part, don't care.

As for On-Demand, I have no idea what the plans are.

Brueno fell to 7th place yesterday (Weds 7/22), behind Harry Potter, Ice Age, Transformers, Proposal, Hangover and Public Enemies.

If you plan to see it in a first run major megaplex, you probably should make plans to go this weekend - this could be its last week.

Early Friday estimates (as always these will be revised, possibly changing the order) shows a major upset -

G-Force was best yesterday (over $10 million)
Ugly Truth 2nd (around $10)
Harry Potter 3rd (under $10_
Orphan around $5

Potter was assumed to be the easy #1 for the weekend; instead it will struggle, with all the films heading for $30 million, +/- $5.

It means a much bigger than expected fall for HP.

The early guessing is that G-Force will end up #1.

I can't decide if I want to see Orphan or (500) Days of Summer...

500 Days of Summer is easily the best grossing new specialized release so far this year - it averaged almost $6000/screen yesterday on 89 screens, should come in around $20,000/screen for the weekend.

It is playing at uniformly great grossing theatres - these are very good numbers, but that needs to be factored in.

However, with apparently great WOM and strong marketing, this looks to be a long term hit as it goes into wider release. It's a bit too early to guess ultimate gross, but is should easily do over $25 million, and could end up much, much higher.

Could this propel it into Oscar contention? My guess is it is too young for the room, but it needs to be considered when evaluating its chances at this point.

(By way of comparison, Hurt Locker last weekend at about the same number of theatres, many of them the same ones, did $2200/screen, or a bit more than a third as well).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

Wow, I'm shocked at "The Ugly Truth"'s numbers. Despite the terrible reviews, it's gonna open $25+ million. Heigl is 3 for 3. There's no denying she has major box office clout.

The terrible reviews - the worst I've seen in a long time for a film with hopes of having some mixed-to-good ones (a godawful 27 on Metacritic) - probably cost it millions of dollars. I suspect this might have been a $40 million + weekend (and an easy #1) without them.

Friday figures:

1) G-Force - 11,525
2) Ugly Truth - 10,800
3) Harry Potter - 9,300
4) Orphan - 4,935
5) Ice Age - 2,585
6) Trans - 2,440
7) Proposal - 2,135
8) Hangover - 1,980
9) Public Enemies - 1,237
10) Brueno - 919

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
The terrible reviews - the worst I've seen in a long time for a film with hopes of having some mixed-to-good ones (a godawful 27 on Metacritic) - probably cost it millions of dollars. I suspect this might have been a $40 million + weekend (and an easy #1) without them.

I highly doubt that.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Potter was assumed to be the easy #1 for the weekend

It wasn't assumed that by anyone who saw and heard how kids reacted to the G-Force trailer when it played in front of Up and Ice Age 3.

The so-called professionals have "nailed" another one. That's quite the track record they have had this year.

G-Force performed within the range of expectations, although at the high end.

The surprise was HP's fall-off. It was expected to outgross G-Force. It fell at a greater level than expected, so did not end up
#1. It doesn't seem to have either the WOM or repeat business that had been anticipated.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:

The surprise was HP's fall-off. It was expected to outgross G-Force. It fell at a greater level than expected, so did not end up
#1. It doesn't seem to have either the WOM or repeat business that had been anticipated.

Really? All the others Potter films (outside the first one) grossed between $250-290 million. This one is already at $220...why were people thinking it was going to do better than the other ones?

Because it opened bigger - generally if a film is supposed to be of a certain level of quality and not disappoint people, the fall-off is expected to be similar to the previous one. This one was much bigger.

It also apparently is getting less repeat business than expected.

And of course G-Force likely took away some of its potential audience this weekend.

(All this is doing is reinforcing the notion that 3-D rules - maybe the last HP film will be in 3-D - certainly if the series were starting now they'd be giving serious thought to it).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

Estimates for one's perusal, then:

1 G-Force $32,152,000
2 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $30,000,000 ($221,834,000 - 61% decline from last weekend)
3 The Ugly Truth $27,000,000 (15% on Rotten Tomatoes)
4 Orphan $12,770,000
5 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $8,200,000 ($171,291,000)
6 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $8,000,000 ($379,090,000)
7 The Hangover $6,465,000 ($247,077,000)
8 The Proposal $6,423,000 ($140,086,000)
9 Public Enemies $4,170,000 ($88,096,000)
10 Bruno $2,719,000 ($56,516,000)
11 (500) Days of Summer $1,630,000 ($3,004,000)
12 Up $1,609,000 ($283,612,000)
13 The Hurt Locker $1,457,000 ($4,034,000)
14 My Sister's Keeper $1,285,000 ($45,026,000)
15 I Love You Beth Cooper $735,000 ($13,393,000)
16 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian $635,000 ($173,003,000)
17 Star Trek $425,000 ($254,006,000)
18 Moon $406,000 ($3,385,000)
19 Whatever Works $316,000 ($4,136,000)
20 Away We Go $284,000 ($8,867,000)

Some odds and ends with the weekend results:

Hangover and Proposal are amazing - films can have legs during the summer. Whatever the quality of these films, its nice to see lower budget non sequels getting attention.

Public Enemies is going to nudge ever so close to $100 million, either getting close or going just over.

Brueno will not get much beyond $65 million. Baron Cohen is talented enough to regroup, but his career is going to have to veer into another direction.

500 Days of Summer is strong, and looks likely to be the first wide expansion of a specialized film since Oscar season. Where it ends up is still too early to tell (will it break through to the over-30 core specialized fans? don't know - there in lies the answer), but don't be shocked if it gets over $50 million.

Hurt Locker reacted to Summit's marketing to at least not lose money compared to this week's expenditures, and had a decent Saturday to Friday bump. The question now is whether it is finally getting enougn WOM to overcome the resistance the film has encountered so far. (But to keep things in context - 500 Days' PSA this weekend is 3 times what Hurt Locker's was last weekend in about the same number of theatres). I'd love for it to go beyond what looked like its ceiling - $10 million - but at this point there is little indication Summit will be doing much beyond trading dollars to get there.

Seanflynn, when do you expect 500 Days of Summer to go wide? I would really like to see it, but it's not playing anywhere near me yet.