"Notorious was nice, but it’s not in the color purple range" "Angels and Demons may get nominated for cinematography the imagery was profound" "District Nine will definitely win for best foreign film it made money and everyone loved it" ~ 8movies
Posts: 2714 | Location: nz | Registered: January 12, 2009
Renee Zellweger won back to back SAG awards (albeit one was for supporting).
But if any (film) actress can win back to back lead SAG awards I'm sure Streep could do it. Judging by the reaction this year, those SAG voters clearly love them some Streep.
Part of what has not been discussed is what happened with 'The Color Purple.'
In a lot of ways, we have the same situation.
Veteran actress vs. fresh newbie? Check.
Heavily predominant African-American film in the running? Check.
A film that is widely celebrated garnering a lot of nods against a swath of films that are more digestible to white audiences? Check.
I realize it has been over 20 years, and I realize the Spielberg factor is all part of what was, but let's not discount the 'Color Purple' factor in all this...
Looking back at the SAG awards in BA, they seem most likely to deviate from the Oscars when they reward someone who is an very respected veteran who has not had the opportunity to win a SAG, usually because of their short history. Jodie Foster, Julie Christie, and Annette Benning, for example. Streep's win last year seems to fall somewhere in that category too - but at this point, there doesn't seem to be a veteran who would step in to award.
If Meryl Streep is pitted against four newbies (or filler nominees), then she'll win the SAG if Hollywood decides it's time for her to win another Oscar.
Some people thought Renee Zellweger would lose the SAG (for "Cold Mountain") because she had won two SAGs the previous year for "Chicago." We all saw how that turned out.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: DoubleD,
They always go for bigger names nowadays, especially with the movies stars. I called Anne Hathaway getting the NBR correctly last year and I am 80% certain Streep will get it this year.
Mulligan and Sidibe or another actress will win the rest. I'm thinking NSFC and LA will honor Mulligan and NY will honor Sidibe (though Mulligan has a good chance of snagging this one as well, I think its the type of performance they go for). One of the two will also win the Drama globe.
Streep will ride the wave for the rest of the awards season to Oscar. She has never been in a better position to win. Her only drawbacks are that her film (and its title) is shared with Amy Adams and that it may be too light for some to be rewarded with an Oscar. Other than these, which I think she'll overcome, she'll have no problem taking Oscar number 3. (And I'm not only starting to warm up to the idea that she'll win for this film).
Posts: 4485 | Location: New Zealand | Registered: April 10, 2007
It is well within the realm of possibility that SAG may feel like giving Streep a second lead award. If this is truly Streep's year to win her long-awaited 3rd, we'll see the first sign of that at the SAGs. I doubt Streep will win any major critics awards... The critics tend to skew edgier than her performance in Julie & Julia. Yes, her work received a warm reception, but I think the major critics groups will want to recognize hipper, riskier fare. Mulligan could well be the belle of the critics' ball, but sit and watch as the industry rallies around its veteran and ultimately hands her the most prized statue. The parallel I can draw is with Cruz this past year. Cruz's fiery performance dominated critics precursors, but she lost the BFCA/GG/SAG to Winslet, and would have lost the Oscar if Winslet had remained supporting. The critics usually don't care if someone is overdue (though that may have played a part in Mirren's dominance in 2006), but if the big story of the season turns out to be Streep needing her 3rd Oscar, then expect a late surge after a slow start.
Jodie Foster (Nell) Susan Sarandon (Dead Man Walking) Frances McDormand (Fargo) Helen Hunt (As Good As It Gets) Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in Love) Annette Bening (American Beauty) Julia Roberts (Erin Brokovich) Halle Berry (Monster's Ball) Renee Zellweger (Chicago) Charlize Theron (Monster) Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) Helen Mirren (The Queen) Julie Christie (Away From Her) Meryl Streep (Doubt)
This is Streep's year. She's going to win the Oscar anyway, but, if her competition is as littered with "unknown" names (to the masses that is) as this website has indicated, that will only increase her chances of winning. I'm sorry but that girl from "An Education" I don't care how many critics prizes she is supposedly going to win, just will not win against Streep. It's been too long since Streep last won and she's way over due.
Posts: 75 | Location: Off Star Island | Registered: July 16, 2009
Originally posted by Duncan Kane: It is well within the realm of possibility that SAG may feel like giving Streep a second lead award. If this is truly Streep's year to win her long-awaited 3rd, we'll see the first sign of that at the SAGs. I doubt Streep will win any major critics awards... The critics tend to skew edgier than her performance in Julie & Julia. Yes, her work received a warm reception, but I think the major critics groups will want to recognize hipper, riskier fare. Mulligan could well be the belle of the critics' ball, but sit and watch as the industry rallies around its veteran and ultimately hands her the most prized statue. The parallel I can draw is with Cruz this past year. Cruz's fiery performance dominated critics precursors, but she lost the BFCA/GG/SAG to Winslet, and would have lost the Oscar if Winslet had remained supporting. The critics usually don't care if someone is overdue (though that may have played a part in Mirren's dominance in 2006), but if the big story of the season turns out to be Streep needing her 3rd Oscar, then expect a late surge after a slow start.
I think most of what you say is true. There's also the possibility that SAG and OSCAR could split. But I'd be hard pressed to try and guess who would win the SAG, should Streep go on to win the Oscar. It could even be the other way around.
Posts: 13901 | Location: canada | Registered: December 22, 2005
I think most of what you say is true. There's also the possibility that SAG and OSCAR could split. But I'd be hard pressed to try and guess who would win the SAG, should Streep go on to win the Oscar. It could even be the other way around.
Precious sounds like an actor's showcase. In that case, I could see SAG eating it up, giving it awards for Monique and ensemble AND Sidibe winning over Streep as part of an actorly wave.
But, even that seems unlikely, given that a relative newcomer has yet to win the award. If Hillary Swank couldn't win in 1999, its hard to image Sidibe, Mulligan and the like winning this year.
I think most of what you say is true. There's also the possibility that SAG and OSCAR could split. But I'd be hard pressed to try and guess who would win the SAG, should Streep go on to win the Oscar. It could even be the other way around.
Precious sounds like an actor's showcase. In that case, I could see SAG eating it up, giving it awards for Monique and ensemble AND Sidibe winning over Streep as part of an actorly wave.
But, even that seems unlikely, given that a relative newcomer has yet to win the award. If Hillary Swank couldn't win in 1999, its hard to image Sidibe, Mulligan and the like winning this year.
An ensemble win for Precious would make Mariah Carey and Paula Patton Oscar winners; two actors who were Razzie worthy in the only other films I've seen them in. What a turn that would be!
After thinking about it, a SAG and an Oscar seems the most plausible.
But it's not as if I'm discounting her competitors either.
Posts: 13901 | Location: canada | Registered: December 22, 2005
