Audrey Tautou's chances are gone now that her film is hated.
It seems like contenders are all falling by the wayside now.
Here are the 8 or 9 ladies I think are still in it, unless there film opens and reviews are awful:
Meryl Streep "Julie Julia"-If she goes Lead, she should since there really are no contenders in this category left and she's getting dazzling reviews.
Charlotte Gainsbourg "AntiChrist"-I was going to drop her, but even though her film got some really bad reviews they all praised this womans performance and she won the Cannes Best Actress award, also could the Academy feel bad about how she got treated by Lars Von Trier and make it up to her with a nomination???
Saoirse Ronan "The Lovely Bones"-People are raving about the book and the trailer to the film. If she nails this performance then she could become a real big contender. We know the Academy likes her since she was nominated before.
Abbie Cornish "Bright Star"-She's in Jane Campions comeback film that is getting great reviews. Also, most critics are raving about one scene in the film that Abbie shines in.
Hilary Swank "Amelia"-Amelia is a legendary woman, and this is Hilary Swank we're talking about. I have a bad feeling that due to lack of competition the academy may "accidentally" reward Hilary for a third time.
Gabourey Sidibe "Precious"-Mo'nique is getting stellar reviews, but so is Gabourey who plays the title character. She gives a great film debut performance and due to lack of competition this could be her way into the category.
Carey Mulligan "An Education"-Everyone is raving about this film and the trailer, although myself personally don't get it, it looks like something that's been done 30x's over and better, but to each his own. Carey again could sneak in.
Shoreh Aghdashloo "The Stoning of Soraya M."-This role has been a pet project of Shoreh's for a while now and it paid of with glowing reviews of her performance. The early release could hurt, but don't forget that she is an Academy member already and was nominated before and people may want to make right what they did wrong. Remember in that poll some magazine did of Academy members about which acting out comes they would change, most said they wouldn't change any except reward Shoreh, well now they can.
Finally.....
If it finds a distributor and is released in time.....
Emily Watson "Within the Whirlwind"-Looks like a knock out drag down performance.
These are the women I think are left to choose from and if I were to guess right now, I'd say Watson's film doesn't find an American distributor in time, so out of the 8 women left here would be my list of nominees:
1. Meryl Streep "Julie and Julia" 2. Hilary Swank "Amelia" 3. Shoreh Aghdashloo "The Stoning of Soraya M." 4. Charlotte Gainsbourg "Anti Christ" 5. Gabourey Sidibe "Precious"
No, contenders could suddenly pop up anytime. But these ae the main ones at the moment,I agree. Charlotte Gainsboug is also ineligible because Antichrist will be released on VOD on the same day as the theatical release.
The film "The Stoning of Soroya M." opened to weak reviews and little business so I would say Shoreh Aghdashloo is out of the running. Even more so than Michelle Pfeiffer.
Charlotte Gainsbourg will not be eligible for "AntiChrist" because the film will be available to order ON DEMAND on cable the same day it opens in the U.S. That means according to Academy rules it is a TV film. Even if Gainsbourg sweeps the U.S. critics awards she will still be ineligible for Oscars.
Posts: 27160 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
IFC still could decide - based on the reaction in Toronto and New York - to delay the VOD if they think they have a shot at the nomination. Not sure it is 100% certain they are planning their normal VOD, though it is likely.
But unless she makes a strong critics' group showing, acting branch members are very unlikely to want to nominate her, and even then, might not.
Originally posted by seanflynn: IFC still could decide - based on the reaction in Toronto and New York - to delay the VOD if they think they have a shot at the nomination. Not sure it is 100% certain they are planning their normal VOD, though it is likely.
But unless she makes a strong critics' group showing, acting branch members are very unlikely to want to nominate her, and even then, might not.
Based on the reaction from Cannes a lot of Oscar voters will probably not make it through "Anti Christ" if its distributors send out screeners. Some may be tossing their copies out windows as they do not want it in the house.
Posts: 27160 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
Originally posted by seanflynn: IFC still could decide - based on the reaction in Toronto and New York - to delay the VOD if they think they have a shot at the nomination. Not sure it is 100% certain they are planning their normal VOD, though it is likely.
But unless she makes a strong critics' group showing, acting branch members are very unlikely to want to nominate her, and even then, might not.
Based on the reaction from Cannes a lot of Oscar voters will probably not make it through "Anti Christ" if its distributors send out screeners. Some may be tossing their copies out windows as they do not want it in the house.
HAHAHAHA!!! I can totally picture people just tossing their screeners out the window, then getting in their cars and running it over. Then backing over it again... HAHAHA!
FYC, Oscars 2010-
Best Picture- Star Trek Best Picture- Up Best Supporting Actor- Zachary Quinto in 'Star Trek' Best Supporting Actor- Michael Gambon in 'Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince' Best Actress- Tilda Swinton in 'Julia' Best Supporting Actress- Elle Fanning in 'Phoebe in Wonderland' Best Actor- Robert Downey Jr. in 'The Soloist' Best Supporting Actor- Jamie Foxx in 'The Soloist'
Posts: 271 | Location: STOCKTON, CA | Registered: August 12, 2009
I think Natalie Portman could be a contender for Brothers, Audrey Tatou for Coco Before Chanel, and Emily Blunt for Young Victoria .At this point my list is:
1.Carey Mulligan-She seems to be getting good reviews by people I trust and the films seem like it will be nominated for best picture. 2.Meryl Streep-The entire movie should have been about Julia Child. 3.Hilary Swank-She's in a biopic. 4.Abbey Cornish-see Carey Mulligan. 5.Gabriele Sibide-I think she can overcome the fact that everyone is focused on Mo'Nique
I'm going to keep Shoreh on the list because she is an Academy Member and critics may have thought the film was so-so, but they really loved Shoreh's performance. And the Academy really likes this lady, so much so that they voted in a poll that they should have given her supporting actress instead of Renee.
Wow, this totally sucks out loud. I can't remember when lead actress seemed this weak, are we back to the mid-70's again??? Now, I'm starting to get a feeling that a bunch of foreign film performers may shock and get some nominations just like in the 70's.
My advice to film studios: If you have a real great female lead performance then release it this year because with only 7 candidates, your odds of getting a nomination are pretty good right now.
Originally posted by Vi: I think Natalie Portman could be a contender for Brothers, Audrey Tatou for Coco Before Chanel, and Emily Blunt for Young Victoria .At this point my list is:
1.Carey Mulligan-She seems to be getting good reviews by people I trust and the films seem like it will be nominated for best picture. 2.Meryl Streep-The entire movie should have been about Julia Child. 3.Hilary Swank-She's in a biopic. 4.Abbey Cornish-see Carey Mulligan. 5.Gabriele Sibide-I think she can overcome the fact that everyone is focused on Mo'Nique
I've been thinking the same thing after seeing the trailer for 'Brothers', but to me Tobey Maguire looked particularly strong, and he could steal all the thunder from that movie if he receives critical praise upon it's release. I've always hoped Portman would find another great role. She's a fine actress, and I think Blanchett robbed her of her Oscar for 'The Aviator', because Natalie was aces in 'Closer', nailing every nuance.
FYC, Oscars 2010-
Best Picture- Star Trek Best Picture- Up Best Supporting Actor- Zachary Quinto in 'Star Trek' Best Supporting Actor- Michael Gambon in 'Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince' Best Actress- Tilda Swinton in 'Julia' Best Supporting Actress- Elle Fanning in 'Phoebe in Wonderland' Best Actor- Robert Downey Jr. in 'The Soloist' Best Supporting Actor- Jamie Foxx in 'The Soloist'
Posts: 271 | Location: STOCKTON, CA | Registered: August 12, 2009
Also, Pfeiffer's performance and film were both criticized by critics. That's why I put Pfeiffer as DOA on the list. Shoreh's film, although didn't get awful reviews got so-so reviews, critics still praised her performance.
1.Carey Mulligan-She seems to be getting good reviews by people I trust
Too bad these people never posted their opinions on the internet. Otherwise, you'd be providing links to these numerous reviews you pretend you saw so that the rest of us could read them. Oh well.
Originally posted by sweetboroguy: I'm going to keep Shoreh on the list because she is an Academy Member and critics may have thought the film was so-so, but they really loved Shoreh's performance. And the Academy really likes this lady, so much so that they voted in a poll that they should have given her supporting actress instead of Renee.
Wow, this totally sucks out loud. I can't remember when lead actress seemed this weak, are we back to the mid-70's again??? Now, I'm starting to get a feeling that a bunch of foreign film performers may shock and get some nominations just like in the 70's.
My advice to film studios: If you have a real great female lead performance then release it this year because with only 7 candidates, your odds of getting a nomination are pretty good right now.
It does seem like a very short list, but aren't the best actress contenders always smaller than best actor. It always seems that way to me.
Originally posted by sweetboroguy: Also, Pfeiffer's performance and film were both criticized by critics. That's why I put Pfeiffer as DOA on the list. Shoreh's film, although didn't get awful reviews got so-so reviews, critics still praised her performance.
Pfeiffer got a lot of terrific reviews despite the mixed reviews for her film.
Also "Cheri" and "Stoning" get basically the same score on Rottentomatoes (54% for "Cheri" and 55% for "Stoning"). I would like to compare them on Metacritic but "Stoning" does not appear there. Maybe not enough major critics saw the film. Regardless "Stoning" was a box-office dud in thr same way as "Cheri".
Posts: 27160 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
1.Carey Mulligan-She seems to be getting good reviews by people I trust
Too bad these people never posted their opinions on the internet. Otherwise, you'd be providing links to these numerous reviews you pretend you saw so that the rest of us could read them. Oh well.
We've had this discussion before and some of the commentators were able to find reviews. The film is currently playing at the MIFF and I've read reviews from internet critic I trust.
1.Carey Mulligan-She seems to be getting good reviews by people I trust
Too bad these people never posted their opinions on the internet. Otherwise, you'd be providing links to these numerous reviews you pretend you saw so that the rest of us could read them. Oh well.
We've had this discussion before and some of the commentators were able to find reviews. The film is currently playing at the MIFF and I've read reviews from internet critic I trust.
They found a few good reviews, but you're the one who keeps saying she's the frontrunner and the one to beat based on the reception she received at Sundance. But you're not backing it up with any evidence.
If she really was the breakout star from Sundance, we'd have heard about it. Much like we heard about "Precious" being the breakout film from the festival.
There is obviously a misuse of the word critic. Somebody being at Sundance and then writing in a website that someone is a contender is not a critic unless he or she has written an actual review.
I haven't found many of the reviews I'd read. I know Andrew O'Hehir had a great review of the film. Rodrigo Perez who writes for theplaylist has a review on his site.It is an excellent film blog. I followed sundance closely and as much as I heard about Mo'Nique and Precious I heard about Carey Mulligan and An Education. Jeffrey Wells has said he has no doubt that Mulligan and Film will be nominated and that Mulligan can win. These are people I trust and you don't have to take there reviews seriously. Before and after I joined this site most people on this forum had Carey Mulligan on there list, this comes from the fact that she was so well recieved at Sundance. It seem as though when I said she had a good shot at winning this was being questioned. We don't have long to see what everyone thinks of the film but from the things I've read it seem like she has a good shot.
Jeffrey Wells has a well-deserved reputation for hyping things he sees early and declaring his appreciation in terms of Oscar chances. I don't follow the Salon critics - they are terribly uneven and variable, although better than Wells. Perez I've never heard of.
Again, you'd be far better citing Kenny Turan, as I did for you. His opinion has actual influence.
C'mon, she has no chance of being nominated for this. The movie really bombed at the box office and I seriously doubt enough academy members will have seen it to get her nominated.
You're right about Pfeiffer. Her film was a complete snoozefest. She ain't getting in either.
