It was already posted on their site.

preds by Dave Karger:

PICTURE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

DIRECTING:
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

ACTOR:
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

ACTRESS:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Kinght
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Happy Go Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall E

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Thoughts?

About as safe and unoriginal as one could get.

And the five same picture as directors? It happens, but not very often.

They likely are close, but they definately are in the no guts/no glory category.

I'm hopeful that the Academy gives us some surprises, but it looks about right.

I'm actually looking for the Laura Linney type of prediction they made last year, but there's none.

I still dont think that both Brangelina would get noms. One will just sit down and support the other.

And is it really turning to be a Titanic Part 2 with Kate getting nommed with Leo getting snubbed.

Well Isk, most feel that Winslet will undoubtedly be a double-nominee this year. Surely she'll get a nomination in one of those categories,right?
But, does anyone feel that Miss Winslet could miss out in both categories? Because, part of me does.
Also, outside of Heath, I dont like that BSA category. And I'd switch Hensen for Tilda Swinton and replace Winslet with either Rosemarie DeWitt, even though I couldnt stand her character, or somebody completely unexpected but worthy, like Hiam Abbass.

These are pretty safe predictions. However, in the Best Actress predictions, I would replace Jolie with Cate Blanchett and in the Supporting Actress, I would replace Tomei with Amy Adams.

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
But, does anyone feel that Miss Winslet could miss out in both categories? Because, part of me does.

well pook, I actually think she's almost assured atleast one nod. I'm still uncertain if she'll get both. But I had her double nominee in my predictions.

Will it be for the unbearable scream-fest Revolutionary Road, or pancake-face fraud-fest The Reader? Or both??

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
Will it be for the unbearable scream-fest Revolutionary Road, or pancake-face fraud-fest The Reader? Or both??

Last year, Krager and I predicted the exact same roster for Actress, and this year is no different. But with Pitt over DiCaprio, and Frost/Nixon over Revolutionary Road, he and I differ almost anywhere else.

But yeah. No real shocker predictions. I was kind of hoping he would grow a pair and predict Wall*E for Picture or something. Didn't happen though.

Oh, it would be so awesome for WALL-E to get in. I mean, aside from the fact that it is a great film. It would just lend a fabulous shock factor to the nominations for me. And it would be the good kind of shock. LOL.

These EW predictions are surprisingly boring. They were playing the percentages this year? Ah well. I agree that most of these predictions look solid. Of course, who wouldn't agree?

It's interesting how these predictions are derided as safe, unoriginal and boring even though they will probably be largely validated come nomination day. Would it be preferable for these pundits to be unsafe, original, interesting but also wrong? Does being bold trump being correct nowadays?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: LonePirate,

quote:

Originally posted by LonePirate:
It's interesting how these predictions are derided as safe, unoriginal and boring even though they will probably be largely validated come nomination day. Would it be preferable for these pundits to be unsafe, original, interesting but also wrong? Does being bold trump being correct nowadays?

I agree. Predictions should be graded on their accuracy not on how interesting or entertaining they may be.

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:

quote:

Originally posted by LonePirate:
It's interesting how these predictions are derided as safe, unoriginal and boring even though they will probably be largely validated come nomination day. Would it be preferable for these pundits to be unsafe, original, interesting but also wrong? Does being bold trump being correct nowadays?

I agree. Predictions should be graded on their accuracy not on how interesting or entertaining they may be.

Exactly...if he wasn't accurate (or "safe"), people on this forum would be complaining that he doesn't know what he's talking about, has no business making predictions, etc. Professional critics/entertainment writers really can't win on these boards.

This is the one year not to be safe. Every main catagory has at least two slot with at least two contenders battling it out. There are bound to be some shake-ups.

Well after seeing the BORING Revolutionary Road, I can say I really don't want Winslet winning for this performance. It's over the top, controlled and whiney. And the story is something we've all seen before. Unhappy housewife in the 50s. Wow. I'll have to see The Reader to see if I'd rather have her win for that.

I think they are over predicting The Dark Knight but Karger is very good and I guess its not out of the realm of possibility. I think TDK may be nominated based on the tech people but I will wait to read their reasoning.

He used to be risky with director choices but he was always wrong. Zhang Yimou House of Flying Daggers, David Cronenberg A History of VIolence, so now he is less adventurous.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BTN,

quote:

interesting but also wrong? Does being bold trump being correct nowadays?

Well, I read Entertainment Weekly for the entertainmnent factor not the psychic abilities of their journalists. So it would be more fun for me of they had a list were they were predicting Anna Faris for The House Bunny and then reading their justification for that.

But the really, really sad thing about these predictions is that I think that even the Academy will be more adventurous than that. There's a not single nomination in these prediction that is unexpected. Yet comes Oscar nomination time there's bound to be at least one or two surprises in their line-up, some indie no one can remember being really buzz-worthy before.

The EW predictions would have been much more on, in spirit at least, if for example they shook up the Best Actress category and replaced Angelina Jolie or Kate Winslet with Michelle Williams for Wendy & Lucy.

But this looks like they ran the Golden Globes noms through a computer, filtered them with the SAGs and got these results. Just uninspired.

I think they went as safe as they could've gone, but then again it's not the idea to be risky, but to be correct...so if this is the most likely lineup then they should print it...

I think In Bruges should be considered for it's screenplay, maybe it'll pop up and considering the lack of favoritism for most movies, this one that seems to be coming out of nowhere and being talked by everybody, it should be considered.

Other than that it looks ok, except for the Picture, Director match, I don't know who to take out though because I do believe those are the five directors that will be nominated with Ron Howard being the shakiest. I think those are the five pictures that will and should be nominated...other than that WallE and Revolutionary Road look less likely than Dark Knight, even if it's a superhero movie. So the director might be the place to look for an alternative taking out Howard who was left out with Apollo 13 a much more loved movie...

I'd love for the Academy to give the Eastwood nod to DiCaprio or Jenkins.

quote:

Originally posted by Benito Delicias:
I think In Bruges should be considered for it's screenplay, maybe it'll pop up and considering the lack of favoritism for most movies, this one that seems to be coming out of nowhere and being talked by everybody, it should be considered.

Thank you. I'm tired of people predicting Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I agree with Milk, Wall*E, Rachel, and Happy Go Lucky, but I would rather see that seemingly-obligatory Woody Allen slot go to In Bruges, or even The Visitor (which was utterly boring, but has the actor-turned-director/writer factor attached to it).

Not to mention Vicky is just plain dull.

Very safe predictions!!