The early reviews of "Milk" have been absolutely outstanding.
If Penn's competitors don't get rave reviews then Penn could very well sweep the critic's award and gain the momentum he needs to win another Oscar.
Now Mickey Rourke is also getting some rave reviews, but if he doesn't play nice this awards season he won't win the Oscar. Academy voters had no qualms about passing over Russell Crowe ("A Beautiful Mind"), Lauren Bacall and Eddie Murphy and Rourke will join that group if he doesn't show up and smile.
Frank Langella will also be a major player, but I feel like he won't win the Oscar unless he sweeps the precursors. Langella has never been nominated for an Oscar, despite a long, hefty career so he'll need a lot of momentum (e.g. precursor awards) to win the Oscar.
I think "Milk" is going to do good box-office (audiences eat up these good natured, good guy roles) and Penn's respected "cool" factor and his help during Hurricane Katrina will no doubt help his cause.
I know it's way too early to answer this question (especially since we haven't seen the reviews for Leonardo DiCaprio or Brad Pitt yet) but I figured we could speculate.
So do you guys think Penn could win his 2nd Oscar for "Milk?"
The reason why we really haven't brought up Sean winning so much is because we are really focusing on who will be nominated first. Not all the films have come out yet, and I think once we have seen all or most of the films and once we get a better picture of all the contenders, then you will start to hear major buzz for a Sean Penn win, or for a Frank Langella win, or even a Richard Jenkins win. But for now, it's only November, we have a little while to go! And Sean Penn has been mentioned in nearly everyone's predictions so far for a nomination, so things are looking good for him so far!
2009 Oscars FYC:
Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Lead Actress - Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road Supporting Actor - Peter O'Toole, Dean Spanley Supporting Actress - Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor
Posts: 2677 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006
But it cannot be denied that he just won recently and that prevented many more actors/actresses winning their next Oscars. It took almost two decades before DDL won his second.
But on the other hand, it took only 5 years for Hilary Swank to win her second one. If ever Sean won, it's been 5 years since he won too. Haha.
But the role itself is shouting so much for a win. He's a respected actor and I have no doubts that he's one of the frontrunners.
FYC:
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Posts: 9177 | Location: Manila | Registered: August 19, 2006
Originally posted by bocaboy7: The reason why we really haven't brought up Sean winning so much is because we are really focusing on who will be nominated first.
I'm not trying to be a douche, but that's not necessarily true. People have been talking about Meryl Streep winning her third for months now. And someone talks about Kate Winslet finally winning next year almost everyday. And reviews haven't come out for either of those performances yet.
Originally posted by bocaboy7: The reason why we really haven't brought up Sean winning so much is because we are really focusing on who will be nominated first.
I'm not trying to be a douche, but that's not necessarily true. People have been talking about Meryl Streep winning her third for months now. And someone talks about Kate Winslet finally winning next year almost everyday. And reviews haven't come out for either of those performances yet.
What I meant by that quote is that we playfully choose who we would want to win now, but by the time the films actually come out, we then will have a better idea of who is the clear frontrunner. Oh and by the way, you are not a "douche." You are completely right! But the point that I am trying to get to is that since it is November, most everyone will have a different "frontfunner." One might say Sean Penn and another might say Frank Langella, but maybe that one person has only seen Milk or they have only seen Frost/Nixon, or even the play. Right now, it is too early to tell who will win, but we like to have our ideas. I would love to see Kate Winslet win her first Oscar this year, whether it's for Revolutionary Road or The Reader, and I have predicted her to get a double nomination, but as much as I say "she's gonna win" or "I want her to win," once I see the film and everyone else has seen the film, I can then get a better idea of who is the frontrunner really. Sorry for going all "college professor" on you right now.
2009 Oscars FYC:
Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Lead Actress - Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road Supporting Actor - Peter O'Toole, Dean Spanley Supporting Actress - Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor
Posts: 2677 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006
Despite Hilary Swank's second Oscar win in a brief period of time in general I think it is becoming harder to repeat. Daniel Day Lewis won a second Oscar last year but it had been almost 20 years since his first and he had to sweep the major prizes to take it. Some are talking about Meryl Streep winning her third Oscar but that has been a 26 year gap and I actually am having doubts that she will take a third Oscar if she has strong competition from a non-winner like Kate Winslet or an actress more likely to win pre-cursors like Kristin Scott Thomas. As to Sean Penn's odds I think it is too soon after his last win and his general truculent attitude make it hard for me to see Oscar voters wanting to honor any time soon unless forced to- say he did sweep or near sweep the critics' award which I do not think will happen. I believe Mickey Rourke will win the majority of the critics awards and grand old man of the theatre and three time Tony winner Frank Langella will likely win with the National Board of Review. I see one of them the more likely best actor winner over a recent but not particularly well liked winnner. Even if "Milk" gets the best picture win I still think it will be without Penn and win something along the lines of... best picture, director, original screenplay and score.
Posts: 16831 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
I'm feeling a second win for Penn. From the trailer, his performance looks so fresh and so different from "Mystic River" this guy could have won back-to-back the way Tom Hanks did.
Posts: 333 | Location: Texas | Registered: September 02, 2005
Originally posted by Kams: I agree with iskolar. I think Sean Penn is the frontrunner right now for the Best Actor Oscar.
I feel like he is too. Well, I actually have two frontrunners right now, because as Dr. McPhearson and bocaboy have already stated, it's sort of too early to really speculate on the win because there's no Helen Mirren type of performance out there that feels like lock yet at least in this particular category imo. I think the other frontrunner has to be Clint Eastwood, and I've believed that as soon as I heard that Gran Torino was poised to be released late in the year like Million Dollar Baby and that he felt that it was a better performance than his performance in that movie. Sure he could just be saying that because he wants to win, but I'm sure the Academy will be happy to oblige him.
I would have Mickey Rourke as a frontrunner, but I think he's doomed to just picking up most of the critics awards as pacinofan already mentioned even if The Wrestler feels like a once in a lifetime role for him. While his comeback is certainly impressive, I just don't think he's well liked or appreciated enough to win a Best Actor Oscar. Now if he were competing in supporting, I would probably say sure, but I think his bad behavior in the past is going to hurt him. Penn was a badboy too, but marriage and kids seemed to mellow him out to finally be accepted by the Academy, and he didn't even win on his first try even if many feel he deserved too. So I think the nomination will have to be reward enough for Rourke.
I also feel that the nomination will be a way of patting either Frank Langella and/or Richard Jenkins on the back too because unfortunately for both of them, if the Academy is going to award a veteran actor that's been around a long time whose never won if Eastwood is nominated, they're going to award him.
Finally, I guess that might leave a spot for a young person and/or newcomer to the category which will probably be either Leonardo DiCaprio or Brad Pitt, but unless either of their movies is the frontrunner for Best Picture, I don't think that it's their year either.
Sorry for all that rambling because as for the race between Penn and Eastwood, I think it might be really close. Eastwood is more liked, but they respect both of them very much too. Also, Milk seems more baity at least from what I've seen and heard of it, compared to Gran Torino right now. Plus, I'm more sure about Milk being a Best Picture nominee, not winner though yet, than I am of Gran Torino because it could falter like Changeling did. I think what sends Eastwood over the top though is that he's never won that award before, and I could see Penn campaigning for Eastwood like Jack Nicholson did for Adrien Brody since Penn is friends with Eastwood, and appears not to care so much about winning acting awards at least publically.(Privately I think he does otherwise he wouldn't have acted like a douche towards Nicholas Cage after Cage won, and because of his speech after he won where he said, "there's no best in acting" but seemed pretty damn happy accepting his award instead of pulling a George C. Scott.)
Originally posted by bocaboy7: The reason why we really haven't brought up Sean winning so much is because we are really focusing on who will be nominated first.
I'm not trying to be a douche, but that's not necessarily true. People have been talking about Meryl Streep winning her third for months now. And someone talks about Kate Winslet finally winning next year almost everyday. And reviews haven't come out for either of those performances yet.
What I meant by that quote is that we playfully choose who we would want to win now, but by the time the films actually come out, we then will have a better idea of who is the clear frontrunner. Oh and by the way, you are not a "douche." You are completely right! But the point that I am trying to get to is that since it is November, most everyone will have a different "frontfunner." One might say Sean Penn and another might say Frank Langella, but maybe that one person has only seen Milk or they have only seen Frost/Nixon, or even the play. Right now, it is too early to tell who will win, but we like to have our ideas. I would love to see Kate Winslet win her first Oscar this year, whether it's for Revolutionary Road or The Reader, and I have predicted her to get a double nomination, but as much as I say "she's gonna win" or "I want her to win," once I see the film and everyone else has seen the film, I can then get a better idea of who is the frontrunner really. Sorry for going all "college professor" on you right now.
Originally posted by DoubleD: Did Penn talk sh*t about Nic Cage after Nic won his Oscar?
Yes. Nine years ago, he said something like how he wasn't an actor and more like a performer. It was during Cage's blockbuster days like "The Rock" and "Con-Air." But Cage seemed to take it in stride.
Next year's Emmys, I want to see "The Shield" nominated!
Posts: 2058 | Location: Long Island | Registered: January 30, 2003
Right now, I actually have Sean Penn as "Most Likely to Be Nominated." Not only that, but in my discussion titled NOMINEE NUMERICS, he is the most buzzed about on blogs, even beyond Eastwood, Rourke, and Langella. I also see several factors helping him: (1) He plays against type. (2) Judging by the trailer, he will be balanced between comedy and drama. (3) Plays a real person. (4) Plays a deceased person. (5) Coupled with Oscar-nominated director Van Sant. (6) His material is being predicted as the best original screenplay of the year.
I mean, this role seems as opposite of his winning turn in Mystic River as one could possibly found. At the beginning of the year, I was weary of this film and blew off the very notion of it. But now, it is easily one of my must-see movies of the year.
As for who I think his competition is, here's a list:
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler. No doubt that he has one of the two (with Downey Jr.) standout comeback stories of the year. Some are calling this perfect casting, and his plastic surgery fetish sculpted his face into one that certainly DOES look like that of a weathered, beat-to-pulp ring wrestler. I've seen this film; Rourke and director Darren Aronofsky apparently fixed the film's dialogue to fit Mickey's language, and it's apparent that he is definitely at home in this role. And the film's final shot, as he makes the Ram Jam while surrounded by his "family," is perfectly placed in the sense of what the film's all about. What could kill his winning chances? Ego and bad behavior. He should learn a thing or two from Crowe.
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon. He plays a past president at the post of the nation's biggest Oval Office deceit at the time. His quips and quirks won him a Tony for this role; let's hope that his film translation is just as enthralling.
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino. This guy has won enough Oscars to please even the Weinsteins. But he hasn't won Best Actor; maybe playing a racist at the pinnacle of his senior life could complete his collection (because four Oscars just isn't enough ).
***The Others Later***
My Oscar Predictions:
PICTURE: Milk or Dark Knight DIRECTOR: David Fincher, Curious Case of Benjamin Button ACTOR: Sean Penn, Milk or Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Doubt or Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, Dark Knight or Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader, or Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Milk ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Slumdog Millionaire ANIMATED FEATURE: Wall.E BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman, "Down to Earth" BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Thomas Newman, Wall.E
Posts: 955 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
Originally posted by Kams: I agree with iskolar. I think Sean Penn is the frontrunner right now for the Best Actor Oscar.
I feel like he is too. Well, I actually have two frontrunners right now, because as Dr. McPhearson and bocaboy have already stated, it's sort of too early to really speculate on the win because there's no Helen Mirren type of performance out there that feels like lock yet at least in this particular category imo. I think the other frontrunner has to be Clint Eastwood, and I've believed that as soon as I heard that Gran Torino was poised to be released late in the year like Million Dollar Baby and that he felt that it was a better performance than his performance in that movie. Sure he could just be saying that because he wants to win, but I'm sure the Academy will be happy to oblige him.
I would have Mickey Rourke as a frontrunner, but I think he's doomed to just picking up most of the critics awards as pacinofan already mentioned even if The Wrestler feels like a once in a lifetime role for him. While his comeback is certainly impressive, I just don't think he's well liked or appreciated enough to win a Best Actor Oscar. Now if he were competing in supporting, I would probably say sure, but I think his bad behavior in the past is going to hurt him. Penn was a badboy too, but marriage and kids seemed to mellow him out to finally be accepted by the Academy, and he didn't even win on his first try even if many feel he deserved too. So I think the nomination will have to be reward enough for Rourke.
I also feel that the nomination will be a way of patting either Frank Langella and/or Richard Jenkins on the back too because unfortunately for both of them, if the Academy is going to award a veteran actor that's been around a long time whose never won if Eastwood is nominated, they're going to award him.
Finally, I guess that might leave a spot for a young person and/or newcomer to the category which will probably be either Leonardo DiCaprio or Brad Pitt, but unless either of their movies is the frontrunner for Best Picture, I don't think that it's their year either.
Sorry for all that rambling because as for the race between Penn and Eastwood, I think it might be really close. Eastwood is more liked, but they respect both of them very much too. Also, Milk seems more baity at least from what I've seen and heard of it, compared to Gran Torino right now. Plus, I'm more sure about Milk being a Best Picture nominee, not winner though yet, than I am of Gran Torino because it could falter like Changeling did. I think what sends Eastwood over the top though is that he's never won that award before, and I could see Penn campaigning for Eastwood like Jack Nicholson did for Adrien Brody since Penn is friends with Eastwood, and appears not to care so much about winning acting awards at least publically.(Privately I think he does otherwise he wouldn't have acted like a douche towards Nicholas Cage after Cage won, and because of his speech after he won where he said, "there's no best in acting" but seemed pretty damn happy accepting his award instead of pulling a George C. Scott.)
Wouldnt it be novel if the best performance actually won....it happens sometimes. It's deflating to think that this is all, just, coincidence.
Posts: 7526 | Location: canada | Registered: December 22, 2005
Originally posted by babypook: Wouldnt it be novel if the best performance actually won..
Oh, Babypook. You and your silly daydreams.
My Oscar Predictions:
PICTURE: Milk or Dark Knight DIRECTOR: David Fincher, Curious Case of Benjamin Button ACTOR: Sean Penn, Milk or Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Doubt or Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, Dark Knight or Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader, or Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Milk ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Slumdog Millionaire ANIMATED FEATURE: Wall.E BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman, "Down to Earth" BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Thomas Newman, Wall.E
Posts: 955 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
Originally posted by A. DeWitt: I am beginning to wonder if Focus Features' marketing plan is sound.
Right NOW, after the big gay bashing known as Prop 8, would be the best time to release the film.
We all could use the inspiration and the historical perspective.
As I said before, this and Doubt are the two I anticipate most.
Yes, I agree withjettasian, the film really should have been released prior to Election Day because I believe that it may have helped defeat Prop 8, and it definitely would have been something to market the movie around. To me it would have seemed like a frontrunner for Best Picture had they marketed it as not just a great film, but as maybe the most important film of the year considering the consequences at stake on November 4th not just in California, but also in Arkansas, Florida, and elsewhere. I don't know why they waited so long to hold back the movie because so far all the early buzz about the film is great.
Originally posted by A. DeWitt: I am beginning to wonder if Focus Features' marketing plan is sound.
Right NOW, after the big gay bashing known as Prop 8, would be the best time to release the film.
We all could use the inspiration and the historical perspective.
As I said before, this and Doubt are the two I anticipate most.
Yes, I agree withjettasian, the film really should have been released prior to Election Day because I believe that it may have helped defeat Prop 8
You think this film would actually turn people the other way? It's a nice thought, but hate mongers will always be hate mongers, and a movie won't change that.
Posts: 2469 | Location: Earth | Registered: April 11, 2005
Originally posted by A. DeWitt: I am beginning to wonder if Focus Features' marketing plan is sound.
Right NOW, after the big gay bashing known as Prop 8, would be the best time to release the film.
We all could use the inspiration and the historical perspective.
As I said before, this and Doubt are the two I anticipate most.
Yes, I agree withjettasian, the film really should have been released prior to Election Day because I believe that it may have helped defeat Prop 8
You think this film would actually turn people the other way? It's a nice thought, but hate mongers will always be hate mongers, and a movie won't change that.
I agree, but still think this film, which Focus Features wants to market to both straight and gay audiences, should have been released earlier so that gay people could draw inspiration from its depiction of how hard Milk and his allies fought and how much they sacrificed, a struggle for equal rights that unfortunately still must be fought today, otherwise without positive role models, we risk becoming victims of demoralization or our own complacency.
You are completely right! But the point that I am trying to get to is that since it is November, most everyone will have a different "frontfunner." One might say Sean Penn and another might say Frank Langella, but maybe that one person has only seen Milk or they have only seen Frost/Nixon, or even the play. Right now, it is too early to tell who will win, but we like to have our ideas. I would love to see Kate Winslet win her first Oscar this year, whether it's for Revolutionary Road or The Reader, and I have predicted her to get a double nomination, but as much as I say "she's gonna win" or "I want her to win," once I see the film and everyone else has seen the film, I can then get a better idea of who is the frontrunner really. Sorry for going all "college professor" on you right now. 
).