Since UpPop is interested in what people think about this, I was directing him/her to the place where a lot of thoughts have been expressed on the topic. Just trying to be helpful.
Originally posted by babypook: What do you mean by timid?
It doesn't seem that there's any real favorite at the moment or that any big names will make the cut. There's Bigelow and Campion who would come on as a two time nominee. Most of the other people i would take seriously are relatively unknown. Sherfing, Ford, Blomkamp, Reitman.
I think Rob Marshall gets shut out if Nine smells anything like Chicago. There's the Cohen Brothers lingering, and Nolan who is owed could make it in.
The field is open. It seems like the conditions are good for it to happen.
But does anyone even think of the Director's category in this way? Directors tend to be tailcoated along with the Best Picture nominees. Whatever films emerge as favorites, those will be the directors that emerge as favorites.
- The Hurt Locker could sweep the critics' groups best picture award - But its very low gross is a strong barrier to its winning best picture - Some of the possible best picture winners either are directed by previous Oscar winners or people who could win this year in other categories (as producer, writer) - There could be 3-5 best picture nominees directed by women - Obviously, there would be a lot of attention paid to the possibility of a woman winning director for the first time - The best way to honor Hurt Locker could be to have Bigelow win - 2 or 3 of the directing nominees could be women
At this point, I don't see any other woman as a likely director winner, so the likely one is Bigelow. The consensus in the prognostication thread is that she could be the leading candidate to win as of now (though of course it is still very early).
Originally posted by stevie: And why would Rob Marshall be shut out if Nine smells anything like a film that won six Academy Awards? That makes no sense.
Plus, it's spelled Coen. And how is Nolan going to make it in when he didn't make a movie this year? Did I miss a major schedule overhaul?
Thank you.
Unless Marshall does something entirely new and different this time, I hope he doesn't get another Oscar for embalming the musical.
Originally posted by stevie: But does anyone even think of the Director's category in this way? Directors tend to be tailcoated along with the Best Picture nominees. Whatever films emerge as favorites, those will be the directors that emerge as favorites.
Plus, it's only September.
Yes, I don't think a woman is winning this year. I could be wrong since there's more pictures nominated, there might be more of a split, but I think this will be another year where they align. Even if they don't align, I think that Lee Daniels will be the first African-American winner, and that we'll have to wait a little longer to see a woman winning.
It's very hard to tell this early in the season though what they might go crazy for and if that will be directed by a woman. Right now I think Daniels, Clint Eastwood of course, Rob Marshall perhaps (although Nine might seem too similar to Chicago), and Jason Reitman have the best chances of actually winning based on the hype about their movies, and the pros that they have going for them.
I would love to see Kathryn Bigelow win, and I think she has the best chance as of now out of the female directors this year with a chance, but I think The Hurt Locker is too small and that the nomination for her and hopefully for Best Picture will be seen as reward enough for that film. Although Bright Star seems to be garnering positive reviews, I think Jane Campion has been absent for too long to win at this stage, and I'm not sure that they'll love it as much as The Piano. For her to win, I think she should have been nominated for her next movie after The Piano or at least had several well received movies after that, and then done Bright Star because she's lost the "due" factor or most of it at least. In fact, I think Bigelow actually has more of it now even though she's never been nominated, but now people are starting to take all of her work more seriously even Point Break which was a great action film even if the plot seems silly.
quote:
And how is Nolan going to make it in when he didn't make a movie this year? Did I miss a major schedule overhaul?
lol, yes, I know that they made a lot of changes because crowd pleasers The Dark Knight and WALL-E didn't get in, but I don't think they're going to go as far as awarding Christopher Nolan the Best Director prize this year. If Inception gets good notices though, and he gets nominated for it, then he may have a good chance of winning just based on the "due" factor that might exist.
I don't even see Lee Daniels as a likely nominee at this point to be honest, much less a winner. Just speculation, of course, but Precious' positive reviews mainly focus on the acting (which of course is tied in with the direction), but not a lot of other directorial brilliance.
The thing Bigelow has going for her is that it is quite possible that among the NYFC, LAFC and NSFC she could win best picture and/or best director from all three groups, which in normal circumstances would give her and the film a big leg up. That doesn't mean normally that this guarantees her a win - but throw in the fact that she would be the first female winner, and she to me easily becomes a leading, and possibly the leading one, to win best director.
The Hurt Locker has been better reviewed than Traffic, The Pianist and Brokeback Mountain, all of which won best director with best picture because they were too small, too outside the mainstream, too un-best picture like. The Pianist had grossed only $20 million when Polanski won (and much of its gross had come from its nominations; Hurt Locker of course will be on DVD long before they are announced).
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Originally posted by babypook: What do you mean by timid?
It doesn't seem that there's any real favorite at the moment or that any big names will make the cut. There's Bigelow and Campion who would come on as a two time nominee. Most of the other people i would take seriously are relatively unknown. Sherfing, Ford, Blomkamp, Reitman.
I think Rob Marshall gets shut out if Nine smells anything like Chicago. There's the Cohen Brothers lingering, and Nolan who is owed could make it in.
The field is open. It seems like the conditions are good for it to happen.
Attention to women directors is embarassingly disproportional, but things are definitely looking up. In the past few years, some of the best screenplays were writen by women, including Nancy Oliver, Tamara Jenkins, and both Sarah Polley and Courtney Hunt, who also directed. There was Valerie Ferris, who co-directed Little Miss Sunshine. These latter films were well received, and yet there were no nominations for these women in direction; although as a worthless aside, imo, only LMS was nominated for Best Picture.
I wouldnt call the field 'timid', but things are finally coming together for women directors. There's Kathryn Bigelow and Jane Campion as a solid one-two punch with their films being well received, as many posters have cited.
But, there is also Nora Ephron, who I still dont believe can be counted out for J&J; and she may be a long shot at this point, but Mira Nair's "Amelia" could surprise. Then there is Anne Fontaine's "Coco Before Chanel", Andrea Arnold's "Fish Tank", and another strong possibility, Lone Scherfig, with her film "An Education".
Most of these women do face some barriers because of the nature and origins of their films, plus the clear fact that they are WOMEN, but even if none of them win, this is a really great sign for the future. And Sofia Coppola hasnt been active for a while, but her film "Somewhere" could be a contender next year.
My guess is, that a woman wont win this year, but there could be multiple nominations for BD for them . Perhaps even, three! Ok I'm getting carried away, but it is hopeful. And, I believe that if Jane Campion does score a nomination for "Bright Star", she will be the only woman to ever receive two nominations as a director. Fingers crossed for the fairer, smarter gender. (kidding, kinda)
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As much as I would love to see a female director FINALLY win a Best Director Oscar, I highly doubt it will happen this year. It's a damn shame that still, in 2009, there has not been a female director to win. Don't get me started on people of color, sans Ang Lee in 2006.
My reasoning is that if two women get in, which is in my opinion likely, they won't pass up the chance to give it to a woman. The gear up to the ceremony will be entirely about how two women are nominated etc. and they have never won the award.
If I had to pick between Campion and Bigelow I would say Bigelow. I have my doubts that they would give it to a foreigner.
And apologies I did not realize Sherfig was a woman. I just assumed, which is indicative of the problem
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That The Hurt Locker is the best reviewed film of the year, period, with better reviews than The Bright Star, even better than Schindler's List, is a factor in her favor.
Then of course Campion has already won an Oscar (screenplay, The Piano).
Summit will be running ads non-stop - "The best reviewed film of the year." Winner - Best Picture/Best Director - with more groups than any other film.
Again, we need to see how the race takes shape.
But like in many years giving the best reviewed film/critics group winner the screenplay award particularly when the director wrote it (Pulp Fiction, The Piano, Sideways, LA Confidential), in this case, director will be the go-to award, with the director being the woman a strong plus.
Not saying for sure this will happen - but this is the zeitgeist working it her favor if it does.ccc
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