Oscar candidates lagging this year First half of 2008 comes up short on potential
By TIMOTHY M. GRAY
As of Monday, the year was at the halfway mark, so in theory, the 2008 awards race is half over.
Not a chance. The past six months have offered fewer potential contenders than any January-June period in memory.
At least on paper, this year looks like a return to the old days, when the majors dominated awards and most of the nominees bowed late in the year -- in contrast with recent history, when the Oscar charge was led by specialty divisions and fall launches.
In the last six months, there have been possible nominees in the below-the-line Oscar races ("Iron Man," "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," "Forbidden Kingdom," "The Incredible Hulk," "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian," "Wanted," "Han****," etc.), and there have been strong toons ("Horton Hears a Who," "Kung Fu Panda," "Wall-E") as well as too many docus to mention.
But as for potential action in the "money" categories, not so much. However, keep an eye on Overture's "The Visitor": Lead actor Richard Jenkins has rightly earned awards buzz, but the film has many other virtues (Thomas McCarthy's script and direction, the other performances, etc.). McCarthy, a talented actor in his own right, has crafted an actors' movie -- a character study with current-event concerns -- that will play well on DVD, so late-year mailings could pay off.
Otherwise, awards prognosticators have to look to the fests. Last year, Cannes boasted a lot of eventual Oscar pics, including "No Country for Old Men." This year's Cannes saw hot prospects in Universal's "Changeling"; the Weinstein Co.'s Woody Allen pic, to be distribbed by MGM, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" -- particularly for the respective perfs by Angelina Jolie and Penelope Cruz; and Sony Classics' "Waltz With Bashir," all of which will open this year.
The Berlin Film Festival embraced Mike Leigh's "Happy-Go-Lucky," with Sally Hawkins winning the actress prize, while Sundance was bullish on "Frozen River," with Melissa Leo. The pics will be released in the U.S. by Miramax and Sony Pictures Classics, respectively.
Of course, their fate depends on what else opens.
After the specialty divisions dominated the 80th Oscars, the major studios predicted they will return triumphantly this year (Variety, March 3-9), and there are plenty of biggies on the books that make the 2008 lineup sound like the most promising from the majors in several years.
But even at the halfway point, there are questions.
Will the early buzz sustain for Disney-Pixar's "Wall-E" and WB's "The Dark Knight" and Heath Ledger? What effect will the Clint Eastwood double whammy -- November's "Changeling" and the December bow of Warner Bros.-Village Roadshow's "Gran Torino," in which he stars as well as directs -- have on kudos? Similarly, Scott Rudin, who was in the winner's circle with "No Country," has two December openers -- but will he have a third with "The Reader," whose opening date is not yet set? Benicio Del Toro won Cannes' actor award for Steven Soderbergh's "Che," but will it find a U.S. distrib this year and, if so, in what form will the two-part film be released? And then there are ... other questions. In the last few years, the song category has been dominated by tunes that were production numbers (as opposed to those end-credit or background songs). So does this bode well for Disney's "High School Musical 3" and Focus' "Hamlet 2"? (If the song "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" can win, there may be hope for the latter pic's "Rock Me Sexy Jesus.") A few years ago, film-awards shows followed the lead of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences and moved their ceremonies a month earlier, but it's clear that the studios are not similarly shifting their release schedules to accommodate the moves. Bottom-line thinking comes first, and release dates are more focused on box office than on awards.
Still, this year will be an interesting one for the majors as they woo Oscar.
For decades, Oscar voters had a reputation for going with more mainstream films, preferring "Ordinary People" to "Raging Bull," to use an often-cited example. But in the last few years, Acad members have embraced darker, arthouse-style films like "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood." So it will be interesting to see how the majors' lineup meshes with this growing specialty sensibility among the voters.
Following are the month-by-month releases that sound like awards fodder. Of course there are always disappointments -- there's no point bringing up the many, many painful memories of films whose makers thought they had a shot -- and there are always surprises.
Last year, "Juno" wasn't on anyone's radar because it wasn't skedded for a 2007 release. And the Weinstein Co. has two that may be added to its 2008 slate: "Shanghai," directed by Mikael Hafstrom and starring John Cusack, and "The Reader," directed by Stephen Daldry, scripted by David Hare, produced by Rudin and starring Kate Winslet).
But here's a blueprint for the next six months.
July: It's an f/x extravaganza with New Line's "Journey to the Center of the Earth" (going out through WB); and Universal's "Hellboy II: The Golden Army."
August: DreamWorks' "Tropic Thunder"; U's "The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor."
September: Disney's Spike Lee movie "Miracle at St. Anna"; Focus' "Burn After Reading," the follow-up film from this year's triple Oscar winners, Joel and Ethan Coen, that stars George Clooney and Tilda Swinton; Miramax's Fernando Meirelles pic "Blindness"; "The Appaloosa," directed by and starring Ed Harris (New Line, via WB); Paramount Vantage's "The Duchess," with Keira Knightley.
October: Lionsgate's Oliver Stone bio-politico-comedy-drama "W." starring Josh Brolin; WB's Ridley Scott film "Body of Lies," written by William Monahan ("The Departed") and starring Russell Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio; Fox Searchlight's "The Secret Life of Bees" (Dakota Fanning, Queen Latifah); Universal-Spyglass' Greg Kinnear film "Flash of Genius," with Marc Abraham making his directing debut; and Sony Pictures Classics' "I've Loved You So Long," with Kristin Scott Thomas, and Jonathan Demme's "Rachel Getting Married," with Anne Hathaway.
November: Paramount-DreamWorks' "The Soloist" (Joe Wright directing Jamie Foxx and Robert Downey Jr.); Focus' "Milk" (Gus Van Sant, Sean Penn); Fox's "Australia," from Baz Luhrmann and starring Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman; MGM-Sony's "Quantum of Solace," with Daniel Craig returning as 007; WB's "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"; and the Weinstein Co./Dimension's "The Road," an adaptation of the book by Cormac McCarthy (who penned the novel "No Country") that's going out via MGM and stars Charlize Theron and Viggo Mortensen.
December: Miramax's "Doubt" (starring Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman and produced by Rudin); Paramount's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett under helmer David Fincher (Warner Bros. has the pic overseas); Paramount Vantage-DreamWorks' "Revolutionary Road" (Sam Mendes, DiCaprio, Winslet and Rudin again); Par Vantage's "Defiance" (Ed Zwick, with Craig); Disney's Adam Shankman-helmed "Bedtime Stories" with Adam Sandler; Lionsgate's Frank Miller-directed "The Spirit"; Sony's "Seven Pounds," reuniting Will Smith with Gabriele Muccino (who directed "The Pursuit of Happyness"); Universal-Imagine-Working Title's Ron Howard-helmed "Frost/Nixon."
Originally posted by PaddyFilm: Oscar candidates lagging this year First half of 2008 comes up short on potential
By TIMOTHY M. GRAY
As of Monday, the year was at the halfway mark, so in theory, the 2008 awards race is half over.
Not a chance. The past six months have offered fewer potential contenders than any January-June period in memory.
At least on paper, this year looks like a return to the old days, when the majors dominated awards and most of the nominees bowed late in the year -- in contrast with recent history, when the Oscar charge was led by specialty divisions and fall launches.
In the last six months, there have been possible nominees in the below-the-line Oscar races ("Iron Man," "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," "Forbidden Kingdom," "The Incredible Hulk," "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian," "Wanted," "Han****," etc.), and there have been strong toons ("Horton Hears a Who," "Kung Fu Panda," "Wall-E") as well as too many docus to mention.
But as for potential action in the "money" categories, not so much. However, keep an eye on Overture's "The Visitor": Lead actor Richard Jenkins has rightly earned awards buzz, but the film has many other virtues (Thomas McCarthy's script and direction, the other performances, etc.). McCarthy, a talented actor in his own right, has crafted an actors' movie -- a character study with current-event concerns -- that will play well on DVD, so late-year mailings could pay off.
Otherwise, awards prognosticators have to look to the fests. Last year, Cannes boasted a lot of eventual Oscar pics, including "No Country for Old Men." This year's Cannes saw hot prospects in Universal's "Changeling"; the Weinstein Co.'s Woody Allen pic, to be distribbed by MGM, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" -- particularly for the respective perfs by Angelina Jolie and Penelope Cruz; and Sony Classics' "Waltz With Bashir," all of which will open this year.
The Berlin Film Festival embraced Mike Leigh's "Happy-Go-Lucky," with Sally Hawkins winning the actress prize, while Sundance was bullish on "Frozen River," with Melissa Leo. The pics will be released in the U.S. by Miramax and Sony Pictures Classics, respectively.
Of course, their fate depends on what else opens.
After the specialty divisions dominated the 80th Oscars, the major studios predicted they will return triumphantly this year (Variety, March 3-9), and there are plenty of biggies on the books that make the 2008 lineup sound like the most promising from the majors in several years.
If it weren't for the Richard Jenkins part, I thought maybe we had found who Sean Flynn really is.
Who knows, maybe my thread (including other posters' mentioning of Richard Jenkins) was what prompted it.
More likely, this was just ahead of published conventional wisdom. But what I wrote was pretty obvious, so I'm hardly surprised it's been mainstreamed.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,
This happens every year. Somebody points out there aren't that many Oscar candidates released within the first six months of the year. As much as I would like to be a change, studios will always release their Oscar-caliber films towads the end of the year.
Next year's Emmys, I want to see "The Shield" nominated!
Posts: 1870 | Location: Long Island | Registered: January 30, 2003
Sorry, but it does not happen to this extent every year. 2008 has seen by far the smallest number of conceivable candidates in the top 8 categories in the history of the Oscars.
I am trying to remember. Was anyone talking up Cottilard and Christie at this time last year, even though their movies had come out? What about Polley for a screenplay nod. Certainly no one considered Crash much of a threat or a player at this time in 2005. It didn't (inexplicably) catch fire until much later in the year. Is there a chance of something off the radar this year popping up as relevant later in the year?
There was nonstop Christie/Cotillard chat from before either film came out in the first half of last year. Also talk of Polley, as well as the other two cast members.
From the first half of last year, there was talk about Breach (Chris Cooper, screenplay), Zodiac (several performances, picture, director, screenplay), The Namesake (actress, screenplay), The Hoax (Richard Gere), Waitress (Kerri Russell, Andy Griffith, screenplay), Once (picture, screenplay), Bug (Allison Judd), Knocked Up (screenplay), A Mighty Heart (Angelina Jolie), Ratatoille (picture, screenplay), Rescue Dawn (Christian Bale), apart from Away from Her and Ma vie en rose.
All of the above had been released in theatres as of July 4, 2007.
This year? Richard Jenkins and Wall-E.
Huge difference.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,
Hey, and don't forget "Hairspray" remember that one guy was totally predicting Michelle Pfeiffer would get an Oscar nod for that film. He kept going on and on saying she would be nominated for that film or "Stardust" and she wasn't.
Originally posted by moviebuff144: Hey, and don't forget "Hairspray" remember that one guy was totally predicting Michelle Pfeiffer would get an Oscar nod for that film. He kept going on and on saying she would be nominated for that film or "Stardust" and she wasn't.
Ew, he was a creeper. He was like "MICHELLE PFEIFFER WILL BE NOMINATED AND YOU WILL LIKE IT SUCKERS!"
But I agree, I think some studios should release some Oscar-worthy movies in the first half of the year. If they were really good, the buzz would keep going all year long.
EMMY FYCS:
Drama Series- Damages Drama Actor- Hugh Laurie Drama Actress- Glenn Close Drama Supporting Actor- Michael Emerson Drama Supporting Actress- Chandra Wilson
Comedy Series- 30 Rock Comedy Actor- Alec Baldwin Comedy Actress- Tina Fey Comedy Supporting Actor- Neil Patrick Harris Comedy Supporting Actress- Kristen Chenoweth
The problem is not when the studios release their potential nominees, it's that there are few potential nominees, period.
The first half of the year has often seen plausible candidates from smaller, independent films. Those just aren't around this year. That end of the business is in severe recession.
We'll see a fair number of contenders this year, but the overall view looking down the line is that fewer and fewer are going to be made. The studios don't really care.
Originally posted by seanflynn: There was nonstop Christie/Cotillard chat from before either film came out in the first half of last year. Also talk of Polley, as well as the other two cast members.
From the first half of last year, there was talk about Breach (Chris Cooper, screenplay), Zodiac (several performances, picture, director, screenplay), The Namesake (actress, screenplay), The Hoax (Richard Gere), Waitress (Kerri Russell, Andy Griffith, screenplay), Once (picture, screenplay), Bug (Allison Judd), Knocked Up (screenplay), A Mighty Heart (Angelina Jolie), Ratatoille (picture, screenplay), Rescue Dawn (Christian Bale), apart from Away from Her and Ma vie en rose.
All of the above had been released in theatres as of July 4, 2007.
This year? Richard Jenkins and Wall-E.
Huge difference.
There have been some great small films here released in NYC all foreign. In fact, the French film industry has been releasing some really great films lately.
Grocer's Son is amazing if you have not gone seen it- you must! The Visitor Reprise
I also liked French film Priceless a great funny film
Posts: 1324 | Location: Providence RI USA | Registered: November 29, 2001
This has actually been a fine year for foreign language films. Unfortunately, nearly all of them have dropped off very quickly and received limited distribution.
Not that they had any chance, quite of few of them are Oscar ineligible - many are distributed by IFC First Take, whose films are shown at the same time on cable pay per view, meaning that they cannot be submitted.
Within two-three years, nearly all foreign language films will be shown this way (or immediate DVD release), with for-the-reviews NY & LA openings, but otherwise existing in a world apart from Oscars.
I'm wondering whether the possibility of an actor's strike is affecting the release date of some films. (just wondering, as an outsider). It seems to me, that a business might hold back some of its product if there looks to be a gap period when nothing is being produced.
There seems to be many movies that barely get shown at all, with the wide release pattern sucking up available venues. Since the usual habit seems to be to give audiences second-tier material in the summer, then flood with quality in Christmas, maybe the producers are holding back some quality product for next year.
That's kind of the impression I got (which could be totally wrong) when I heard that Michelle Pfieffer's "Cheri" would come out in 2009 instead. I thought, well, there might not be much competition then, if a lot of other projects are in stasis.
