So I thought to start this thread to discuss the Best Director race.

I was wondering if The Academy will honor the first woman director this year. Kathryn Bigelow, director of Hurt Locker, won some real high praise with her work. Is the Academy ready to honor her? Or will it prove to continue to be the good ole boy's network?

But admittedly, there are some great potential male directors that they could honor as well. But this year, I think is the strongest year for a woman to actually win the Best Director.

The only category with a clear frontrunner.

Between the acclaim for the film, the chance for a woman to win for the first time, the number of other competitors who either have won Oscars or could this year in other categories, its possible sweep of critics' awards, this is, at this point, Kathryn Bigelow's to lose. If anyone beats her, my guess it is from a film that has not been openly screened yet (which means not Lee Daniels, or the Coens, or Jason Reitman for example). And most of those films are again either from previous winners (Eastwood, Cameron, Jackson) and/or their directors are their films' producers and/or directos.

The stars are alligned for her, big time. Not that this guarantees that she will win. But no one in any category is as well positioned as she is as of now.

I'd say Streep is a close second.

It also makes sense that the year AMPAS first honours a woman director boasts a Best Actress winner who's directed by a woman as well. THen again, Mulligan and Cornish fit the bill as well. Well, Bright Star made 6 dollars and twenty cents and An Education will not match J&J's takings. Also, Streep has another film coming out.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Streep Fan,

Mo'Nique and Streep are both nominal favorites, but to me neither is remotely as well positioned as Bigelow is.

Streep could have strong competition from Mulligan, if not others; the supporting actress race is still pretty unformed.

This is the director's thread, right?

I can see Bigelow winning her way through the Critics awards, and then losing at the Oscars, to someone like Jason Reitman.

I want to see what happens with the DGA. If she wins that one, I'll feel better about her chances.

AND if Bigelow wins, we'll have our first (ex) husband and wife Oscar winners.

Granted, it's not much of a first, since she would also be the first woman...

Have any of the past directing Oscar winners ever been rumored about romantically? Say, Minnelli and Cukor?

The DGA will have importance.

But Reitman will have a chance for two other Oscars as producer and screenwriter. I don't see him winning director unless the film wins best picture, and screenplay likely would be part of the package.

And somehow the idea of his winning three Oscars and the first woman with a real chance of winning doesn't really would seem just wrong I suspect. (A similar situation occurred two years ago, but without the huge gender breakthrough issue, when the Coens won all three, when it could have been split up with PTA winning director.)

The DGA issue is complicated by their members (most of whom are in TV and have nothing to do with movies, but still vote) do NOT get screeners, so if Hurt Locker remains mostly unseen but Up in the Air is everywhere and a huge hit (or some other frontrunner similarly) Bigelow's chances should still go down.

They do go, outside the box when it comes to screenplays. And I realize the DGA's are complicated. If they give that award to someone else, let's say, Clint Eastwood, then I'm worried for her.

My guess is that there is going to be a quiet campaign led by people like Eastwood, Cameron (her ex-husband and still friend) and others for her to win - not just because she is a woman and the film is great, but also because she is well known and respected by a lot of veteran filmmakers.

A few chattering critics about a film very few have actually seen yet do not a Best Director nod make.

I haven't forgiven Reitman for the anti-abortion propaganda piece "Juno." Who knows how reactionary "Up in the Air" will be.

It's Bigelow's to win, and yes, she's a far better director than Reitman.

I think right now she's the front runner. But that can change on a dime. I'd hate to annoint her this early and then see her lose.
I think another telling factor will be the Eddys. They dont always line up, but more often than not they do.

Who the editor is can matter with the ACE - one of them is pretty novice, the other came from Sam Raimi's team - he has edited his last 6 films, including the Spider-Man films.

I don't think Kathryn Bigelow is the frontrunner for winning Best Director this year. I really don't think there are any frontrunners this year in any of the categories. I absolutely loved The Hurt Locker and thought Bigelow's direction was brilliant, however, this is a small film. It got a decent reception at the Box Office, but nothing spectacular. Critics will back her up, but you usually need more than that. Unless The Hurt Locker gets a strong campaign, I doubt it will make much of an impact at the Oscars as far as wins go.

I too think someone like Jason Reitman could take home the win. Former Oscar nominee who has made nothing but consistently great films (Thank You For Smoking, Juno, and now Up in The Air). Also, if veterans James Cameron, Peter Jackson, or Clint Eastwood pull off their films brilliantly, I'm sure Oscar wouldn't mind rewarding them again.

I do think she is a safe bet for a nomination at this point, but a win??? I think its WAY too early to tell, especially considering that most of us here haven't seen any of the other potential nominees' works yet, given that they haven't been released.

I also find kathyrn Bigleow the front runner at this point..and agree that if a woman was to win best director...this would be the year with so many feature films directed by women..and oscar nominations in the acting categories will reflect the number of films directed by women.
as of now..i see it this way...

1. kathryn bigelow- the hurt locker
2. rob marshall- nine
3. clint eastwood- invictus
4. lee daniels- precious
5. lone sherftig- an education

I think that its too soon for reitman to be on the list so soon with juno just 2 yrs ago..peter jackson will come close...jane campion will get a screenplay nomination...so might nora ephron for julie and julia..

It's a zeitgeist thing.

Having a chance to be the first woman to win is huge. The idea of by far the most acclaimed US film of the year not winning best picture is totally plausible; but winning at least director for the first time for a woman sounds overwhelmingly plausible.

I hardly have the final say on this, but I am totally comfortable in saying she (not the film for best picture) is the clear frontrunner. My guess is that unless Hurt Locker also wins best picture, there will be a split in this category this time.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

Katheryn Bigelow is the current frontrunner for this. The momentum is hers right now.

However, it is possible that she can easily lose that momentum. Isn't this the time when we were predicting Anne Hathaway would be nominated for Best Actress?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: iskolar,

quote:

Originally posted by iskolar:
Katheryn Bigelow is the current frontrunner for this. The momentum is hers right now.

However, it is possible that she can easily lose that momentum. Isn't this the time when we were predicting Anne Hathaway would win Best Actress?

Unless you are employing the royal "We," We never predicted any such thing.

quote:

Originally posted by iskolar:
Katheryn Bigelow is the current frontrunner for this. The momentum is hers right now.

However, it is possible that she can easily lose that momentum. Isn't this the time when we were predicting Anne Hathaway would win Best Actress?

I cannot think of anyone who was predicting Anne Hathaway to win best actress. Most were predicting she would be nominated and were righty-right but especially after her love-it-or-hate-it film came out it was clear she probably could not win.

I agree.

While I adored Anne Hathaway in this film and cried through the second half, the friend I saw it with hated it.

Opinions were very divided on this film, and, knowing that, I never harbored a moment of thinking she would prevail as Best Actress.

Yes, I think pushing more for a nomination. Let me edit my post. But what I was saying, during this time of the year, there were already those who have big momentum who can easily lose it and end up not winning the Oscar come OScar time.