If there are any categories that I can usually predict 100% (other than supporting actor), they are the Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay lists. I've always found it tragic how little credit the writers are given in Hollywood, to immensely contrast against Broadway (where the writer is king, and everything else comes second). However, the fact that AMPAS has continuously honed their screenplay nominations to fit both critic and audience expectations (the inclusion of "Borat" is a nice example of this) while also refusing to combine the two categories is enough to put naysayers at ease.

Below is a list of all the contenders and near-locks for each category. Feel free to post your own predictions, explaining the "why" behind your prognostications if you feel inclined.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

FRONTRUNNERS

CONTENDERS
"(500) Days of Summer" ... Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
"A Prophet" ... Thomas Bidegain & Jacques Audiard
"A Serious Man" ... Joel & Ethan Coen
"Avatar" ... James Cameron
"Away We Go" ... Dave Eggers & Vendela Vida
"Bright Star" ... Jane Campion
"Broken Embraces" ... Pedro Almodovar
"District 9" ... Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell
"Fish Tank" ... Andrea Arnold
"Funny People" ... Judd Apatow
"The Hurt Locker" ... Mark Boal
"Inglourious Basterds" ... Quentin Tarantino
"In the Loop" ... Armstrong, Blackwell, Iannucci & Roche
"The Invention of Lying" ... Ricky Gervais & Matthew Robinson
"The Messenger" ... Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
"Sherlock Holmes" ... [insert alot of people]
"Sunshine Cleaning" ... Megan Holley
"Up" ... Pete Docter & Bob Peterson
"Whatever Works" ... Woody Allen
"The White Ribbon" ... Michael Haneke

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

FRONTRUNNERS

CONTENDERS
"Amelia" ... Ronald Bass & Anna Hamilton Phelan
"An Education" ... Nick Hornby
"A Single Man" ... Tom Ford & David Scearce
"Crazy Heart" ... Scott Cooper
"Damned United" ... Peter Morgan
"The Informant!" ... Scott Z. Burns
"Invictus" ... Anthony Peckham
"Julie & Julia" ... Nora Ephron
"The Last Station" ... Michael Hoffman
"The Lovely Bones" ... Fran Walsh, Phillippa Boyens & Peter Jackson
"The Men Who Stare At Goats" ... Peter Straughan
"Nine" ... Michael Tolkin & Anthony Minghella
"Precious" ... Geoffrey Fletcher
"The Road" ... Joe Penhall
"Up in the Air" ... Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
"Where the Wild Things Are" ... Spike Jonze & Dave Eggers

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. McPhearson,

Awards & Nominations Thus Far:

13th Annual Hollywood Film Awards: Breakthrough Screenwriters
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber for "(500) Days of Summer"

13th Annual Hollywood Film Awards: Best Screenwriter
Nora Ephron for "Julie & Julia"

Venice Film Festival: Gucci Prize
Mark Boal for "Hurt Locker"

Silver Berlin Bear: Best Screenplay
"The Messenger," by Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman

British Independent Film Awards: Best Screenplay Nominees
"An Education," Nick Hornby
"Fish Tank," Andrea Arnold
"In The Loop," Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
"Moon," Nathan Parker
"Nowhere Boy," Matt Greenhalgh

Macquaire AFI Award: Best Original Screeplay Nominees
"Cedar Boys," Serhat Caradee
"Mary and Max," Adam Elliot
"My Year Without Sex," Sarah Watt
"Samson & Delilah," Warwick Thornton

Macquarie AFI Award: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees
"Balibo," Robert Connolly, David Williamson
"Beautiful Kate," Rachel Ward
"Blessed," Andrew Bovell, Melissa Reeves, Patricia Cornelius, Christos Tsiolkas
"Mao’s Last Dancer," Jan Sardi

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. McPhearson,

MY SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS

Original Screenplay

"(500) Days of Summer"
"A Serious Man"
"Bright Star"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Up"

Adapted Screenplay

"An Education"
"Lovely Bones"
"Nine"
"Precious"
"Up in the Air"

The one screenplay I feel slightly odd not including is "Invictus." The film could develop into a Best Picture frontrunner, and if that were the case, the screenplay is almost certain to follow. However, the one screenplay that pushed it out for me ("Nine") was co-written by Michael Tolkin and (wait for it) Anthony Minghella. It's for that reason that I put it into the slot some reserved for "Invictus." As the race develops, we may see one of them step over the other.

The other four Adapted nominees I'm predicting should be considered fairly safe right now.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. McPhearson,

MY SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS

Original Screenplay:

"Bright Star"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglorious Basterds"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"

Adapted Screenplay:

"An Education"
"Invictus"
"Lovely Bones"
"Precious"
"Up in the Air"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

As smart and funny as the script to "In the Loop" is I do not think it is eligible for Oscars as it played on VOD at the same time it opened in NYC and LA.

The following excerpt is from Peter Knegt's (indieWire) coverage of the 13th Annual Hollywood Film Festival Awards:

"[...]while (500) Days of Summer screenwriters Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber will also be recognized with the Hollywood Breakthrough Screenwriter Award."

Most of the time, we here at the Envelope don't look at the AHFF awards as precursors for the Oscars. In fact, many Derbyists believe that the aforementioned award organization doesn't even exist save for the purpose of enhancing particular Oscar bids.

However, one should not scoff at the AHFF's screenplay awards too much, particularly since the recipients of the Breakthrough Screenwriter Award has, in the last two years, gone to Dustin Lance Black and Diablo Cody who, should I remind you, both went on to win the Oscar in their respective years. The year Cody won, Christopher Hampton was also recognized for adapting "Atonement," a screenplay which was nominated by the Academy as well.

So scoff all you want, naysayers, but this award could be telling, particularly in a year where, thus far, adaptations have outweighed original screenplays 4-to-1.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. McPhearson,

My predictions,

Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
The Messenger
Up

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
Nine
Precious
Up in the Air

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:
As smart and funny as the script to "In the Loop" is I do not think it is eligible for Oscars as it played on VOD at the same time it opened in NYC and LA.

If that turns out to be true, it will be a tragedy, since its fast-paced dialogue is a wonderful return to the rapid-fire comedy that I've loved ever since seeing "His Girl Friday" a few years back.

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:
The following excerpt is from Peter Knegt's (indieWire) coverage of the 13th Annual Hollywood Film Festival Awards:

"[...]while (500) Days of Summer screenwriters Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber will also be recognized with the Hollywood Breakthrough Screenwriter Award."

Most of the time, we here at the Envelope don't look at the AHFF awards as precursors for the Oscars. In fact, many Derbyists believe that the aforementioned award organization doesn't even exist save for the purpose of enhancing particular Oscar bids.

However, one should not scoff at the AHFF's screenplay awards too much, particularly since the recipients of the Breakthrough Screenwriter Award has, in the last two years, gone to Dustin Lance Black and Diablo Cody who, should I remind you, both went on to win the Oscar in their respective years. The year Cody won, Christopher Hampton was also recognized for adapting "Atonement," a screenplay which was nominated by the Academy as well.

So scoff all you want, naysayers, but this award could be telling, particularly in a year where, thus far, adaptations have outweighed original screenplays 4-to-1.

As much as I enjoyed "(500) Days of Summer", good chance it will be on my top ten list, I do not think it will be nominated for anything but its screenplay, and that is no certainty. As as such it will likely be beaten by a best picture nominee.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:
As much as I enjoyed "(500) Days of Summer", good chance it will be on my top ten list, I do not think it will be nominated for anything but its screenplay, and that is no certaintly. As as such it will likely be beaten by a best picture nominee.

Everything you've just said, I agree with. I was simply emphasizing the importance of taking the AHFF Screenwriter award into prediction consideration, seeing as how it has forecasted Oscar winners in recent past.

I actually don't think that "(500) Days" has much of a chance in Best Picture anymore, nor do I think it will win Original Screenplay (I'm rooting for "Up" and expecting "Bright Star" despite 'meh' feelings towards the film).

Just making a point, was all.

I'm not as convinced as some that Bright Star will get that screenplay nomination. I'm leaving it out of my predictions, for the time being.

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
I'm not as convinced as some that Bright Star will get that screenplay nomination. I'm leaving it out of my predictions, for the time being.

Right now, I think its got a good chance. But a snub by the Globes and the WGA will probably knock it out of the race.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. McPhearson,

Adapted Screenplay
Nick Hornby, An Education
Anthony Peckham, Invictus
Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, The Lovely Bones
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Original Screenplay
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Up

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Kams,

I see that everyone seems to be in consensus save for one slot per category. Those not predicting "(500) Days of Summer" are pushing "Inglourious Basterds" (except for Daryl Zero, who has "The Messenger). And anyone who doesn't have "Nine" on their list instead have "Invictus" (except for Daryl Zero again, who includes both and leaves "Lovely Bones" dry).

Could the two screenplay races already be reduced to twelve or thirteen contenders combined?

quote:

Originally posted by Kams:
Damien Paul, Push – Based on the Novel by Sapphire

Kams, while you got the title wrong (no matter how you might dislike the change, the film is "Precious" now, not "Push"), you did bring up a good point with the writer. Do we know for a certainty that IMDb is correct in saying that Geoffrey Fletcher wrote the script, or that the reviews that say Damien Paul wrote it are correct instead?

quote:

Could the two screenplay races already be reduced to twelve or thirteen contenders combined?

Of course not.

It's still early.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:

quote:

Originally posted by Kams:
Damien Paul, Push – Based on the Novel by Sapphire

Kams, while you got the title wrong (no matter how you might dislike the change, the film is "Precious" now, not "Push"), you did bring up a good point with the writer. Do we know for a certainty that IMDb is correct in saying that Geoffrey Fletcher wrote the script, or that the reviews that say Damien Paul wrote it are correct instead?

They're the same person. Geoffrey Fletcher is his real name and it's on the current prints because of WGA rules. He hasn't been credited as Damien Paul since Sundance.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jilpen,

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:

quote:

Could the two screenplay races already be reduced to twelve or thirteen contenders combined?

Of course not.

It's still early.

Damn it, Sean, is there a thread you haven't said that on? I was merely showing amazement at how much consensus there seems to be, it was not a statement of fact. Good golly, sir. If you're going take part in a thread like this, you might as well couple your fuddy-duddying with a list of predictions. (I hope you read that statement as though someone who has a good attitude was saying it, because I did not type it in my "angry voice." Just so you know.)

Please contribute to the thread with more than "there are no locks in October." Thank you in advance.

And thanks for that, Jilpen. I was wondering why there was so little to be found on 'Damien Paul.' Now I know its because he is an alias. It's like trying to find special interest stories written by Borat.

Dr M

Speaking only for myself and my preferences, and not trying to say this can't be a fun exercise, I don't bother with formal lists, even for myself unpublished, until late December. I think it's premature until then.

I've seen too many "consensuses" in mid-October look really silly a couple months later.

Years ago, I used to do this (pre-net, for myself). Learned my lesson, don't anymore.

(As you saw, on the best picture thread I listed only possible contenders that have already opened. Getting the film into the marketplace is for me the single most important step in the process).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Dr M

Speaking only for myself and my preferences, and not trying to say this can't be a fun exercise, I don't bother with formal lists, even for myself unpublished, until late December. I think it's premature until then.

I've seen too many "consensuses" in mid-October look really silly a couple months later.

Years ago, I used to do this (pre-net, for myself). Learned my lesson, don't anymore.

(As you saw, on the best picture thread I listed only possible contenders that have already opened. Getting the film into the marketplace is for me the single most important step in the process).

Well there you go then.

I understand completely why I rarely see predictions from you now. And it actually makes sense. Some people prefer to hold off until all the contenders have actually been seen; on the other hand, with me for example, gandering for or against the yet-unseen motion pictures is half the fun.

It seems that you and I, Mr. Flynn, prefer to play different instruments in this little orchestra. (I swear I've heard that in a movie before) But for the record, if you see me ask a question like that, please understand its with the intention to spark conversation and not as a naive statement of unwavering fact.

Oh, and what do you mean "pre-net?" The Internet has always existed.

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