Each of these films was met w/fanfare and critical acclaim. Both raised the standards in their respective genres and both are being talk about the coveted Oscar prize. Both have a chance at getting more than 2 noms, but the question is which movie should make it into the final five. Considering that the four films that are likely to make it into the top five Ben Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, & Slumdog, the last spot seems up in the air. If you consider Doubt to be more of an actor’s type of movie and Rev Road the launching pad to get Kate her first win, what else is left? Personally I would want WALL-E & TDK to make it in and since the Oscars is not known for having more than 5 noms up for BP, I would want for TDK to end up getting the final spot while WALL-E take the Animated Feature prize.

Since I can’t do my polls like I could in the Daytime thread, for this discussion first write down the film that you think will make it in (or say neither) and then discuss.

People really, really need to stop assuming the Button and F/N are sure things. I can easily see either or both not being nominated. Chances are at least one, and probably a bit more than 50/50, that both will make it. But this silly assumption that we know the four nominees when one (Frost/Nixon) is performing weakly in theatres amd BB is getting less than expected critical acclaim and might not do so well commercially really needs to be challenged.

WALL-E and DK are hurt by the preferential voting system. I am nearly convinced that if all members listed 5 best picture choices, both films would make it easily. But both films are hurt by not being as likely #1 choices as some other films (Button more than F/N). If they get listed as 4s and 5s, neither film will make it in.

WALL-E I suspect gets more #1s, DK overall more mentions.

Like just everyone else here, I can't really get my arms around this. That several films are falling as BP possibilities - Rev Rd, Reader, Gran Torino, and my feeling that Doubt won't get much support beyond actors, and then not so much as #1, then the smaller field really, really helps both films.

If I were to guess, I'd slightly favor DK over WALL-E if only one gets it, but it remains a very, very close call.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

As there is an animated category, or ghetto if you prefer, where "Wall-E" can be nominated I think it would be a tougher climb to get it into the best picture race than "The Dark Knight". Also, the fact that "The Dark Knight" made so much money and would probably being eyeballs to the Oscars makes me think it has another big edge. I personally would prefer "WALL-E" to be a best picture Oscar nominee as I think it is the more unique film and the greater artistic achievement.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

I don't think either will make it in, but The Dark Knight would be ahead of Wall-E.

I do, however, expect TDK to have at least four or five nominations total. I believe that Christopher Nolan is a dark horse in the Director category and is slightly more likely than the film itself getting in.

I don't get the point of Academy members listing 5 choices if they basically only count #1's. So, let's say that 4 films hog all the #1 votes but one. A 5th film receives a single solitary #1 votes, but doesn't get on ANYONE else's top 5. Does that film get in over a film that averages a bunch of 2's?

quote:

People really, really need to stop assuming the Button and F/N are sure things. I can easily see either or both not being nominated. Chances are at least one, and probably a bit more than 50/50, that both will make it. But this silly assumption that we know the four nominees when one (Frost/Nixon) is performing weakly in theatres amd BB is getting less than expected critical acclaim and might not do so well commercially really needs to be challenged.

Mmmm.. so riddle me this Mr. Insider (and I say that w/all do respect), given all of the major awards noms that both films have recieved you really can't see any of them being up in the final 5?

Major awards so far = NYFC, LAFC, SAG nominations. That's what I am going by.

Frost/Nixon showed up only in SAG, and then with the expected Langella nomination, and ensemble

Nothing from NY/LA

Benj Button - hasn't opened, consensus reviews disappointed, performed far less well at NY/LA than expected (since it was thought to be a likely critics' favorite); did OK at SAG, but unexpectly no Blachett, who gives the best performance in the film


SAG ensemble is a quality nomination, but actors in the Academy have the same 1-5 choice that other brnaches do, so they can only give out so many 1s and 2s.

And I say that that one of them will be nominated is quite likely, and that both will be is a bit over 50%.

I've also seen both films, seen how Ron Howard's films other than Beautiful Mind have historically met resistance at the Oscars, is not doing well theatrically. I'm not sure it will be many members 1st or 2nd choice. Button I like quite a but, but the main response I hear from contacts is disappointment and being underwhelmed. That factors into my thoughts.

Just warning people - hang loose, be prepared to reassess. There is a long way to go.

(And for those who ask why do the GGs not influence me - well, tell me, do you think Milk is not going to be a best picture nominee?)

ITA that the GG has lost it's relevance.

Another question since you seen Ben Button, was Brad Pitt good and if you seen The Visitor does Richard Jenkins has a chance of getting in over Pitt?

"Milk" and "Slumdog" are the only BP sure things. So many films this season has disappopinted, which could lead to both "The Dark Knight" and "WALL-E" being nominated. I don't quite see that happening though. "The Dark knight" gets in there while "WALL-E" will have to make due with a screenplay nod.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Major awards so far = NYFC, LAFC, SAG nominations. That's what I am going by.

Frost/Nixon showed up only in SAG, and then with the expected Langella nomination, and ensemble

Nothing from NY/LA

Benj Button - hasn't opened, consensus reviews disappointed, performed far less well at NY/LA than expected (since it was thought to be a likely critics' favorite); did OK at SAG, but unexpectly no Blachett, who gives the best performance in the film


SAG ensemble is a quality nomination, but actors in the Academy have the same 1-5 choice that other brnaches do, so they can only give out so many 1s and 2s.

And I say that that one of them will be nominated is quite likely, and that both will be is a bit over 50%.

I've also seen both films, seen how Ron Howard's films other than Beautiful Mind have historically met resistance at the Oscars, is not doing well theatrically. I'm not sure it will be many members 1st or 2nd choice. Button I like quite a but, but the main response I hear from contacts is disappointment and being underwhelmed. That factors into my thoughts.

Just warning people - hang loose, be prepared to reassess. There is a long way to go.

(And for those who ask why do the GGs not influence me - well, tell me, do you think Milk is not going to be a best picture nominee?)

Sean, as you know I love reading your posts.. I am wondering if you have posted your own personal top ten films this year?

I have not seen Gran Torino yet, so I don't rule out Eastwood getting in either. Pitt seemed at best OK in the role.

Penn, Rourke, Langella are solid. From there, Jenkins, Eastwood, DiCaprio, Pitt all have equal shots for the last two.

I won't be ready to do a ten best list till sometime midyear. Way too many films (mainly foreign) for me to see. As of now, the best film I've seen is Still Life.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

I dont think The Dark Knight or Wall E will get in for BP. Wall E is already a lock for Best Animated Feature, so unless people really really really really love it, then that's the only way I can see it making into BP.

It would be easier for TDK to get in as compared to Wall E. However, I see it more as a recognition for Nolan in Directing which is more probable than TDK making it to BP.

Either RR or Doubt or even The Reader can make it to the fifth spot.

THE WAY I SEE IT:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk

3. Benjamin Button
4. Frost/Nixon

5. Revolutionary Road
6. Doubt
7. TDK

8. The Reader
9. The Wrestler

10. Wall E

I think "The Dark Knight" has a better chance to be nominated for Best Picture than "Wall-E".

quote:

Originally posted by Kams:
I think "The Dark Knight" has a better chance to be nominated for Best Picture than "Wall-E".

I agree. Wall-E already has best animated feature all sewn up.

I think both have a small chance of making it in. Curious Case's tomatometer keeps plunging, and Frost/Nixon is not going to sustain much buzz for a whole 'nother month. The threats to this happening include RR taking off after its release and Doubt getting any support from the DGA and PGA (its reviews are now identical with Curious Case, so there is a LOT that can happen within the next month)

quote:

Originally posted by MissyGal:

quote:

Originally posted by Kams:
I think "The Dark Knight" has a better chance to be nominated for Best Picture than "Wall-E".

I agree. Wall-E already has best animated feature all sewn up.

And that's all the more reason why it should be considered for Best Picture instead of Best Animated. Give the other animation films a chance this year. Wall-E, in regards to an animated film, is in a class by itself and should be rewarded with a nomination as a Best Picture. Don't segregate it into its genre category - this film is beyond animation. Just like how The Dark Knight is beyond just being an action movie with a superhero.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: GoBlue!,

quote:

Originally posted by hanzz:
I don't get the point of Academy members listing 5 choices if they basically only count #1's.

G'Day,
there are pros and cons of using this voting method. Here are the pros:

1. It means that voters don't have to think politically when casting their ballots. If people feel that their favourite 2 films, Dark Knight and WALL-E, are fighting for that final spot, they may not put WALL-E on their ballot because they want to assure TDK gets voted in. However in this system their vote for WALL-E will only count either after TDK is alredy a nominiee or after it is impossible for TDK to get nominated.

2. Voters can actually vote for their favourite films. they don't need to worry about throwing away their vote by ranking Frozen River no. 1 on their ballot. As long as their 5th and/or 4th choice is a big contender then their ballot will end up being counted.

3. Films with apssionate support end up trumping those that are just generally well liked. With 1 and 2 votes being so important it means that films that inspire passion are going to have an edge other than the films that everyone feels they have to put on their ballot. This is the reason that one of the best films of the decade, Letters From Iwo Jima, was able to get nominated ahead of the medicore but percieved frounrunner, Dreamgirls, 2 years ago.

So I think its a good system where voters can be more honest, everyone's ballot is going to count for a film and films that are loved get nominated.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Noble,

quote:

Originally posted by hanzz:
I don't get the point of Academy members listing 5 choices if they basically only count #1's. So, let's say that 4 films hog all the #1 votes but one. A 5th film receives a single solitary #1 votes, but doesn't get on ANYONE else's top 5. Does that film get in over a film that averages a bunch of 2's?

Were I running the show I would have this system:

#1 spot = 5 points
#2 spot = 4 points
#3 spot = 3 points
#4 spot = 2 points
#5 spot = 1 point

But unfortunately, it seems that only the #1 and 2 spots are taken into account at all.

I think Dark Knight could get in for Picture, though rewatching it, I see it more as the Best Director nod without a BP nod to back it up with. Plus, WALL*E was more inspirational, and is the only film I see with a chance to knock Milk out of the Original Screenplay top spot.

They don't just count #1s. They stack up (literally) the ballots by #1s initially. Anyone/any film that has 1/6 + 1 #1s in a nominee.
Then they take the stack with the least #1s, and work upward, putting their #2s into the #1 stacks, again when something has 1/6 + 1, it's in.
If still not enough, again, back to the end, #3s get put into the stacks.
There probably are some times when 4s and even 5s get included.

This is how some great nominees get in every year - those having passionate support, but maybe not (initially) broad support.

However, I am reasonably sure if they allowed every member 5 choices, and then tallied those up, both WALL-E and DK would be in. But I am not sure either will have enough 1 or 2 support to make it.

So do Academy members tend to vote for the film they think was best or for their truly favorite film? Because those two notions are not necessarily the same thing could potentially lead to an array of different nominees.