quote:

Originally posted by Aaron Abraham:
here are my predictions: *my winner
Best picture:
"Australia"
"Doubt"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"Revolutionary Road"*

Director:
Ron Howard-"Frost/Nixon"
Baz Luhrmann-"Australia"
Sam Mendes-"Revolutionary Road"*
John Patrick Shanley-"Doubt"
Gus Van Stant-"Milk"

Lead Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio-"Revolutionary Road"*
Hugh Jackman-"Australia"
Frank Langella-"Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn-"Milk"
Brad Pitt-"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button"

Lead Actress:
Emily Blunt-"The Young Victoria"
Nicole Kidman-"Australia"
Jessica Lange-"Grey Gardens"
Meryl Streep-"Doubt"*
Kate Winslet-"Revolutionary Road"

Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin-"Milk"*
Phillip S. Hoffmann-"Doubt"
Ben Kingsley-"Transsiberian"
Michael Shannon-"Revolutionary Road"
Michael Sheen-"Frost/Nixon"

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams-"Doubt"
Drew Barrymore-"Grey Gardens"
Kathy Bates-"Revolutionary Road"
Viola Davis-"Dobut"
Kate Winslet-"The Reader"*

Adapted Screenplay:
"Blindness"
"Doubt"
"Frost/Nixon"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"*

Original Screenplay:
"Australia"
"Milk"*
"Synecdoche,New York"
"The Vistor"
"The Young Victoria"

I think those are some pretty damn good early predictions!

My first ever prediction for next year:

Best Picture:
Australia
Doubt
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Synecdoche, New York

Best Director:
Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Clint Eastwood, The Changeling
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road"

Best Actor:
Benicio del Toro, The Argentine/Guerilla
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Synecdoche, New York"
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk

Best Actress:
Emily Blunt, "The Young Victoria"
Anne Hathaway, "Dancing with Shiva"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy Go Lucky"
Nicole Kidman, "Australia"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"

Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist
Phillip S. Hoffman, Doubt
Ben Kingsley, Transsiberian
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Drew Barrymore, Greys Gardens
Viola Davis, Doubt
Samantha Morton, Syncedoche, New York
Kate Winslet, The Reader

It would be fun to see if Blunt, Hathaway, Kidman, Moore, and Streep will end up as the Best Actress contenders because that's the three lead stars of Devil Wears Prada plus the three women of The Hours.

quote:

Originally posted by iskolar:
It would be fun to see if Blunt, Hathaway, Kidman, Moore, and Streep will end up as the Best Actress contenders because that's the three lead stars of Devil Wears Prada plus the three women of The Hours.

Ha ha ha. True! But yeah, where's Kate Winslet?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: bocaboy7,

quote:

Originally posted by bocaboy7:

quote:

Originally posted by iskolar:
It would be fun to see if Blunt, Hathaway, Kidman, Moore, and Streep will end up as the Best Actress contenders because that's the three lead stars of Devil Wears Prada plus the three women of The Hours.

Ha ha ha. True! But yeah, where's Kate Winslet?

I think she'll get her nom at Supporting Actress with The Reader. Though I have put Revolutionary Road in my preds for BP and Mendes for BD, I'm still not having high expectations with it because it's so over hyped right now that it might be too soon for them to peak.

I won't be shocked if it will be a Jarhead or a Memoirs of a Geisha, and if Kate will be nominated for that, I'm not sure about Leo because in the past Kate is the only one who keeps on racking up noms while her costars are always left out in the cold (leo, Patrick Wilson, Jim Carey)

Leo's role is far superior to Kate's, in my opinion. She basically gets the shrieky wife role that eventually we're forced to feel sympathetic for (even though she completely does not deserve it). At least the Frank Wheeler character has reasons for his marital treason.

I have my eye on Miranda Richardson in 'The Young Victoria' for Best Supporting Actress. I'm expecting some yummy monster-mom theatrics from one of the best (and most undervalued) contemporary actresses.

Dr. McPhearson, 'Towelhead' is as far away from 'Juno' as you can get. Have you read the book? Good stuff, save for a disappointing ending.

These are who I interpret to be at the top of their respective races. There are roughly 16-18 names in each list.

Best Actor:
Daniel Craig, in "Defiance"
Benicio Del Toro, in "Che"
Leonardo DiCaprio, in "Body of Lies"
Leonardo DiCaprio, in "Revolutionary Road"
Clint Eastwood, in "Gran Torino"
Ralph Fiennes, in "The Reader"
Jamie Foxx, in "The Soloist"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, in "Doubt"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, in "Synecdoche, New York"
Hugh Jackman, in "Australia"
Richard Jenkins, in "The Visitor"
Tommy Lee Jones, in "In the Electric Mist"
Frank Langella, in "Frost/Nixon"
Derek Luke, in "Miracle at St. Anna"
Cillian Murphy, in "Hippie Hippie Shake"
Sean Penn, in "Milk"
Brad Pitt, in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Emily Blunt, in "The Young Victoria"
Anne Hathaway, in "Dancing with Shiva"
Sally Hawkins, in "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Vera Farmiga, in "Nothing But the Truth"
Angelina Jolie, in "Changeling"
Nicole Kidman, in "Australia"
Keira Knightley, in "The Duchess"
Keira Knightley, in "The Edge of Love"
Diane Lane, in "Nights in Rodanthe"
Jessica Lange, in "Grey Gardens"
Laura Linney, in "The Other Man"
Sienna Miller, in "The Edge of Love"
Michelle Monaghan, in "Trucker"
Sophie Okonedo, in "Skin"
Gwyneth Paltrow, in "Two Lovers"
Meryl Streep, in "Doubt"
Kerry Washington, in "Lakeview Terrace"
Kate Winslet, in "Revolutionary Road"

Best Supporting Actor:
Demian Bichir, in "Che"
Josh Brolin, in "Milk"
Russell Crowe, in "Body of Lies"
Robert Downey, Jr., in "The Soloist"
James Gandolfini, in "Miracle at St. Anna"
John Goodman, in "In the Electric Mist"
Emile Hirsch, in "Milk"
Richard Jenkins, in "Burn After Reading"
Heath Ledger, in "The Dark Knight"
John Malkovich, in "Changeling"
Matthew Rhys, in "The Edge of Love"
Peter Sarsgaard, in "In the Electric Mist"
Maximilian Schell, in "The Brothers Bloom"
Liev Schreiber, in "Defiance"
Michael Shannon, in "Revolutionary Road"
Michael Sheen, in "Frost/Nixon"
David Wenham, in "Australia"

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, in "Doubt"
Drew Barrymore, in "Grey Gardens"
Kathy Bates, in "Revolutionary Road"
Annette Bening, in "The Women"
Penélope Cruz, in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, in "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson, in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Catherine Keener, in "The Soloist"
Rinko Kikuchi, in "The Brothers Bloom"
Samantha Morton, in "Synecdoche, New York"
Miranda Richardson, in "The Young Victoria"
Amy Ryan, in "Changeling"
Vinessa Shaw, in "Two Lovers"
Tilda Swinton, in "Burn After Reading"
Emma Thompson, in "Brideshead Revisited"
Debra Winger, in "Dancing with Shiva"
Kate Winslet, in "The Reader"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: SkankyHo,

You're missing Julianne Moore in Best Actress

quote:

Originally posted by Egg Fu:
I have my eye on Miranda Richardson in 'The Young Victoria' for Best Supporting Actress. I'm expecting some yummy monster-mom theatrics from one of the best (and most undervalued) contemporary actresses.

I'm still very weary of how Revolutionary Road is going to translate to the screen. It's a great book. Amazing book. But I'm just not sure if it's gonna translate to a GREAT movie. Mendes has covered this territory with American Beauty, and Winslet covered similiar territory with Little Children.
The movie could end up being very bleak, depressing, one-note film. It's gonna have solid acting for sure, but I'm just not sure if it's gonna be the winning film for Kate and Leo. It could go either way.

quote:

Originally posted by Egg Fu:
Leo's role is far superior to Kate's, in my opinion.

Isn't Jim Carey's role in Eternal Sunshine far more superior to Kate's also? Or at least in my opinion.

quote:

Originally posted by GH:
You're missing Julianne Moore in Best Actress

Nicole Kidman too. She's always in the running, but we know she won't make it to the final list.

Anyways, I'm skeptical to Keira Knightley. After Atonement, here she goes again in another period piece. I have a feeling that The Dutchess will tank, and that it will be compared to her performances in P&P or Atoenemnt, thus eliminating her chances.

And Cate too. I guess she will rest this year for a nomination (though her movie is definitely in the running)

quote:

Originally posted by iskolar:

quote:

Originally posted by GH:
You're missing Julianne Moore in Best Actress

Nicole Kidman too. She's always in the running, but we know she won't make it to the final list.

Anyways, I'm skeptical to Keira Knightley. After Atonement, here she goes again in another period piece. I have a feeling that The Dutchess will tank, and that it will be compared to her performances in P&P or Atoenemnt, thus eliminating her chances.

And Cate too. I guess she will rest this year for a nomination (though her movie is definitely in the running)

-For some reason, I don't see Australia doing as well this year - it just doesn't seem interesting to me, so I am suspecting that this one will be that movie that gets some buzz, but then turns out to be a dud.

-About Keira Knightly, I think she will get more buzz with The Edge Of Love than The Dutchess - which doesn't intrest me at all. I think the voters will see The Dutchess[i] as another [i]boring period piece that stars an overrated actress...

-I think Cate will sit out as well... She had her good run in the past couple of years - its time to take a breather.

*And Egg Fu, what is Miranda Richardson's role about, becuase the only nomination that I can possibly see coming from that movie is from Emily Blunt, and thats it. When it comes to period pieces, I tend to realize that it is normally that lead role that gets recognized (ex. - a movie like Elizabeth).

quote:

Originally posted by bocaboy7:
*And Egg Fu, what is Miranda Richardson's role about, becuase the only nomination that I can possibly see coming from that movie is from Emily Blunt, and thats it. When it comes to period pieces, I tend to realize that it is normally that lead role that gets recognized (ex. - a movie like Elizabeth).

I actually fear for Australia because it might go to Cold Mountain route and just leave us with nothing but pure buzz. Though, I'm feeling that it will be Revolutionary Road.

yeah, good call on lead getting nominated as proven recently with Cate Blanchett, Keira Knightley, and Judi Dench.

However, Helen Mirren got nommed for The Madness of King George as supporting to co-nominee Nigel Hawthorne.

bocaboy - Miranda Richardson plays Queen Victoria's mother, the Duchess of Kent, who is determined to make sure that her daughter does *not* reach the throne. She'll probably steal the movie.

GH - I ommitted Julianne Moore because I'm pretty sure that her Oscar hopes are bust after the overwhelmingly lukewarm reception to Blindness from Cannes. It's what happened to Kirsten Dunst in Marie-Antoinette two years ago - she was pretty good (not Oscar worthy but I could have seen her being nominated had the film not opened there) but the initial reception killed it.

Did I miss Nicole Kidman in 'Australia'? I didn't mean to. I'll edit.

GH, I agree with you about 'Revolutionary Road'. Except for the fact that while you loved the book, I despised the maudlin selfishness of its theme and the arrogant grandiosity of the style.

I don't buy the chances for 'Australia' or either of Keira's films, either. I don't think 'Gran Torino' will be the knockout many people are expecting, either - same with 'Frost/Nixon'. Remember, the latter is a RON. HOWARD. FILM. The Academy OD'd on Howard back in 2001 and I'm sure they're still having unpleasant acid flashbacks.

Well, Cate Blanchett and Keira Knightley's films hardly had showy supporting roles in them (except for the latter's co-star Tom Hollander who, inexplicably, received no buzz for his hilarious performance) that would have attracted a lot of attention... Sutherland and Pike in P&P were hardly grandstanding.

Mrs. Henderson Presents almost could have had a nomination for Bob Hoskins, if I remember correctly (which, of course, I probably don't). In my opinion, Kelly Reilly and Will Young (he can act!) deserved the buzz much more.

quote:

Originally posted by Egg Fu:
Mrs. Henderson Presents almost could have had a nomination for Bob Hoskins, if I remember correctly (which, of course, I probably don't). In my opinion, Kelly Reilly and Will Young (he can act!) deserved the buzz much more.

The Judi Dench movie I'm referring to was Mrs. brown, though it's quite far from being a period movie, it deals about royalty, another subject where in the leads are almost the oens who can manage to get away with noms.

'The Young Victoria' is really more of a bildungsroman than your typical 'royalty' piece, at least, as far as I can tell.

Best Picture:
"Australia"
*"Changeling"
"Doubt"
"Milk"
"Revolutionary Road"

Best Director:
*Clint Eastwood- "Changeling"
Baz Luhrman- "Australia"
Sam Mendes- "Revolutionary Road"
Steven Soderbergh- "Guerrilla"
Gus Van Sant- "Milk"

Best Actor:
Benicio Del Toro- "Guerrilla"
Leonardo DiCaprio- "Revolutionary Road"
Philip Seymour Hoffman- "Doubt"
*Frank Langella- "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn- "Milk"

Best Actress:
Emily Blunt- "The Young Victoria"
Sally Hawkins- "Happy-Go-Lucky" (expect her to be the critics' choice)
Angelina Jolie- "Changeling"
*Meryl Streep- "Doubt"
Kate Winslet- "Revolutionary Road"

Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin- "Milk"
Ben Kingsley- "Transsiberian"
Heath Ledger- "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon- "Revolutionary Road"
*Michael Sheen- "Frost/Nixon"

Best Supporting Actress:
*Amy Adams- "Doubt"
Kathy Bates- "Revolutionary Road"
Penelope Cruz- "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Miranda Richardson- "The Young Victoria"
Viola Davis- "Doubt"

Best Original Screenplay:
*Changeling
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Synecdoche, New York
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay:
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Doubt"
"Frost/Nixon"
"The Reader"
*"Revolutionary Road"


Considered "Defiance" since Oscar voters tend to nominate Holocaust material BUT Ed Zwick always seems to come up short no matter how Oscar-baity the material.

Having a hard time agreeing with Michael Sheen in supporting since I saw the play but I've decided to go along with the crowd. Did not go along with the crowd though on Philip Seymour Hoffman where I believe his past win and a certain degree of fame will keep his co-lead performance from going into the supporting line-up. Until I see actual campaigning for supporting I am going to consider him lead.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,