But what about us poor slobs who live in Toronto who want to feast on the endless lavish buffet of celluloid and star dust in September. Please don't deny us this romanesque pig roast. Roles for women in film may suck, but come September, Ethel's one happy camper!
Posts: 3306 | Location: Church | Registered: July 10, 2003
The problem EC is that with all the Oscar attention surrounding Toronto (and remember we're talking about films you and the rest of us can see in theatres anyway within weeks), a lot of quality films get noticed less than they might otherwise. You've always been good about taking chances and seeing some less "important" films, but the state of specialized cinema overall has suffered from Toronto becoming the most important Oscar launching pad in the world.
I do see the problem with all that good stuff being crammed into one 9 day orgy of cinematic sin for the borgeousie. It's like going on a go see with the most beautiful kids in town - how intimidating! How do you break through the clutter?
I'll do my part in trumping the underdog, championing the best in cinema, recommending the good stuff!
Posts: 3306 | Location: Church | Registered: July 10, 2003
I do not see much of tendency in this year's lack of oscar contenders in first half of the year. A lot of promising indie releases simply did not live up to expectations. Usually we have strong acting contenders and this year, Savage Grace and Funny Games alikes were not praised enough to carry the leads till the end of the year. I do agree with seanflynn that shutting down speciality houses might shift the indie power to cable players. However, I will wait till next year to make any claims about irrelevance of Oscars. We have Wall-E that people even predict to be in BP race this year, Panda and Jenkins might be this year's Julie Christie. Finally, this year we might have potential awards and box-office powerhorse(or just the opposite) that could change everything. I am talking about CCOBB, the insider buzz is claiming that Paramount might be sitting on a new masterpiece and hit.
I think that 'The Visitor' is the only film that could pose any real threat - in Best Actor or Best Screenplay. There's really nothing else that will be even a blip on Oscar's radar.
Seanflynn, it's a bit high-and-mighty of you to say that 'The Visitor' won't get any critics' love. Small indies have gotten cited in the prerequisites before - High Art, Once, The Station Agent, Pieces of April (wow, and they all star Patricia Clarkson!), Transamerica, Junebug - not all of those went on to Oscar, but they were certainly active in the precursors and, when you look at them closely, none of them were particularly baity (save Transamerica, perhaps, for its lead role).
If I recall, buzz for Eckhart never materialized until *very* late in the year, when it became a viable possibility that DiCaprio's dual roles might cancel him out. His performance was praised but Oscar was never really thought of as a definite opportunity until October at the very earliest.
Again, I remember that Keke Palmer's buzz petered out after her Gotham Award nomination, when the big glut of prestige films were released and buzz grew in the lead categories for Cruz and Streep and in the supporting categories for Barraza and Kikuchi.
McKellen was only seen as a candidate before the film opened at Cannes - the disastrous reviews sealed the deal.
You are both misquoting me AND referring to a possible Eckhart nomination that I never suggested.
What I said was that Jenkins needs to win won of the major (NY, LA, NSFC) critics group to be nominated; I did not say that this was extremely unlikely. If Paul Giamatti couldn't get nominated for Sideways, or Frank Langella last year (I think comparable situations), I wonder whether this can compete once the big guns come out later. I certainly don't rule him out; I just think he stands out more now because there is virtually no one else to talk about.
Also - the best actress category (because of less competition) has been far friendlier to early year, veteran actress specialized film nominees. In best actor, going back to 1991, I can only find two cases of older veteran character actors getting nominated -- Peter Fonda (Ulee's Gold) and Richard Farnsworth (Straight Story). Both won NYFC. And both were released by majors (United Artists and Disney respectively), while The Visitor is from untested Overture.
And Thank You for Smoking was a major contender for one of the 8 major categories - for screenplay, which of course again is why I included it.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,
Originally posted by seanflynn: ... the best actress category (because of less competition) has been far friendlier to early year, veteran actress specialized film nominees. In best actor, going back to 1991, I can only find two cases of older veteran character actors getting nominated -- Peter Fonda (Ulee's Gold) and Richard Farnsworth (Straight Story). Both won NYFC. And both were released by majors (United Artists and Disney respectively), while The Visitor is from untested Overture.
I think it's how you define older veteran character actor. It appears there is a slot every year in the Best Actor list for an aging actor in a "small" film.
2007 Tommy Lee Jones In the Valley of Elah 2006 Peter O'Toole Venus 2005 David Strathairn Good Night and Good Luck 2004 Clint Eastwood Million Dollar Baby 2003 Ben Kingsley House of Sand and Fog 2002 Jack Nicholson About Schmidt 2001 Tom Wilkinson In the Bedroom 2000 Ed Harris Pollock 1999 Richard Farnsworth The Straight Story 1998 Ian McKellan Gods and Monsters 1997 Peter Fonda Ulee's Gold
Can Richard Jenkins be in that slot for 2008? Right now it would be hard to dispute. He is that good.
Sean Flynn, I think your point about Frank Langella is a good one. A lot of people expected him to be a contender for that slot last year. His helpless nude scene in the bathtub was brave and moving. The choice of Tommy Lee Jones took many people by surprise. However, we'll see if Langella snatches that aging actor in a "small" film spot this year for Frost/Nixon.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. L,
2007 Tommy Lee Jones In the Valley of Elah 2006 Peter O'Toole Venus 2005 David Strathairn Good Night and Good Luck 2004 Clint Eastwood Million Dollar Baby 2003 Ben Kingsley House of Sand and Fog 2002 Jack Nicholson About Schmidt 2001 Tom Wilkinson In the Bedroom 2000 Ed Harris Pollock 1999 Richard Farnsworth The Straight Story 1998 Ian McKellan Gods and Monsters 1997 Peter Fonda Ulee's Gold
I think that list buttresses my point - Tommy Lee Jones - double visibility with No Country Peter O'Toole - nominated mainly for his lack of win, late year release David Straithairn - best picture nominee Clint Eastwood - late year release, best picture nominee Ben Kingsley - late year release, other nominations, previous winner Jack Nicholson - well, it's Jack Nicholson, popular movie Tom Wilkinson - late year release, best picture nominee Ed Harris - late year release, other nominations Ian McKellan - recognized master actor, other nominations
Which leaves Fonda and Farnsworth, who still had much more going for them, as did all of the above, than does Jenkins.
Again, not saying impossible, just that he has a difficult path without a major win, and he will have plenty of competition for that.
Langella never got adequate pre-release buzz for his film. There wasn't enough hoopla at Sundance to create a solid foundation for any awards hopes (as there were for The Savages), so the critics' awards that he got didn't have the media traction to back them up and push them into the big leagues.
I think the TLJ nomination was, in part, voters' guilt for completely forgetting the film in the precursors, and he had buzz for 'Elah' before it materialized for his performance in 'No Country' (seeing as buzz developed for Bardem first, then Brolin, THEN Jones, then Macdonald).
Ian McKellen was still untested waters, so to speak, in 1997, seeing as he really only "started" his film career in 1995 with Richard III after decades on the stage. He didn't develop a reputation as one of the film greats until AFTER Gods and Monsters hit.
I agree that Jenkins has an uphill battle, but its pig-headed of you to discount his chances (for the most part) based on history and trends. You have to agree that history has to start somewhere.
Stop with the name-calling Egg Fu. There is nothing pig-headed in what I wrote.
And I am the first to say that history doesn't predetermine each year's results. But the reality is that Jenkins, though possible, needs a lot of breaks to get nominated, irrespective of the quality of his performance.
And pig-headed is a nasty way of saying stubborn, and thus itself nasty.
Besides, if you bothered to read my posts carefully, you'll see nothing more than reasoned arguments about the difficulties of Jenkins' getting a nomination. Not stubborn at all, unless not changing one's opinion 180 degrees because Egg Fu wants one to is the new definition of pig-headed.
It would be no different than if I called you pig-headed because you wouldn't agree with me. I have never, and never would, do that.
Sorry, but your name-calling was not only nasty, but totally inaccurate.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,
2007 Tommy Lee Jones In the Valley of Elah 2006 Peter O'Toole Venus 2005 David Strathairn Good Night and Good Luck 2004 Clint Eastwood Million Dollar Baby 2003 Ben Kingsley House of Sand and Fog 2002 Jack Nicholson About Schmidt 2001 Tom Wilkinson In the Bedroom 2000 Ed Harris Pollock 1999 Richard Farnsworth The Straight Story 1998 Ian McKellan Gods and Monsters 1997 Peter Fonda Ulee's Gold
I think that list buttresses my point - Tommy Lee Jones - double visibility with No Country Peter O'Toole - nominated mainly for his lack of win, late year release David Straithairn - best picture nominee Clint Eastwood - late year release, best picture nominee Ben Kingsley - late year release, other nominations, previous winner Jack Nicholson - well, it's Jack Nicholson, popular movie Tom Wilkinson - late year release, best picture nominee Ed Harris - late year release, other nominations Ian McKellan - recognized master actor, other nominations
Which leaves Fonda and Farnsworth, who still had much more going for them, as did all of the above, than does Jenkins.
Again, not saying impossible, just that he has a difficult path without a major win, and he will have plenty of competition for that.
As much as I think Richard Jenkins has a chance at a nomination should he do well with the critics he is not as famous as any of the older veteran actors mentioned above so these are not material for a proper comparison. In fact some of those actors mentioned above are bona fide movie stars (Eastwood, O'Toole, Nicholson, etc) so that does not compare at all with Jenkins who is a well respected character actor but no star.
I do think the Frank Langella comparison is somewhat apt. I realize Langella was nto a nominee BUT there is a big difference in that "The Visitor" has become a surprising art house hit that people are talking about in that context while "Starting Out in the Evening" was little seen. Also, Langella won NO major critics' prizes, they all went to Day-Lewis, even though he placed for several and took some minor ones. I only think Jenkins will have a chance at a nomination should he actually win some critics' prizes.
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Posts: 16777 | Location: Phoenix, AZ | Registered: February 02, 2003
I could totally see Satellite, CFCA and Indie Spirit nominations happening for him. Maybe even Boston Critics will bite.
The Boston Critics among the above would be the only one to have any chance of influencing the Oscars.
He needs a biggie - NYFC, LAFC or NBR (NSFC almost too late) and/or a SAG and/or GG nomination. Even then he could be bumped for a bigger name.
We'll have to see if Overture - which is not a huge company - goes to the expense of launching a campaign and sending screeners. Since by October there will be virtually no other in-DVD release potential nominees, they might have a chance for the film to be looked at (the only major advantage they have over Langella last year). And since Overture likely would lose money on any campaign unless he is nominated (and even then they wouldn't be guaranteed of covering their losses), don't assume they will do this, particularly if the field seems crowded.
To reiterate an earlier point, I am told that there is going to be a big cutback in Oscar campaign outlays this year - the losses for last year were staggering.
My initial post specifically and clearly said I was talking about the traditional top 8 categories - picture, acting, directing, writing.
And it has already been established that there is one if not two lead acting possibilities.
But going back to the original point, it is the weakest first half year ever for potential (meaning could be, not necessarily will be), and all the discussion that has followed backs up that point.
) and Bette Midler (Then She Found Me) would have better than average chances (to date, at least) for Supporting Actress consideration.
I would love for Bette to finally land an Oscar. I thought she deserved one for The Rose but Sally Field was stronger.
I liked Bette Midler in TSFM, not the best, though she was the strongest in the movie, but there was one money scene (which I mentioned in the TSFM thread) that should put her in contention for supporting actress.
2009 Oscars FYC:
Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Lead Actress - Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road Supporting Actor - Peter O'Toole, Dean Spanley Supporting Actress - Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor
Posts: 2658 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006
Originally posted by seanflynn: Stop with the name-calling Egg Fu. There is nothing pig-headed in what I wrote.
And I am the first to say that history doesn't predetermine each year's results. But the reality is that Jenkins, though possible, needs a lot of breaks to get nominated, irrespective of the quality of his performance.
I absolutely agree, Sean. I really don't see what is "pig-headed" about what you're getting at.
Honestly, I think Richard Jenkins has the type of quiet performance much like Tommy Lee Jones' Elah was. However, unlike Jones, I have a feeling he will be forgotten about before nomination time comes around. But who knows; heck, I already smell an Independent Spirit nod for the fella. And he deserves it too, I think.
My Oscar Predictions:
PICTURE: Milk or Dark Knight DIRECTOR: David Fincher, Curious Case of Benjamin Button ACTOR: Sean Penn, Milk or Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Doubt or Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, Dark Knight or Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader, or Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Milk ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Slumdog Millionaire ANIMATED FEATURE: Wall.E BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman, "Down to Earth" BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Thomas Newman, Wall.E
Posts: 946 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
