The following is, of course, assuming that Downey Jr.'s performance in The Soloist is Oscar-worthy.

After 6 and a half weeks, Iron Man has already received $297.9 million domestically, for a total of $545.4 million globally. Already, blogger rumors are on the up-and-up in favor of Tropic Thunder. And here, in June, people across the net are already stapling Downey Jr. onto their supporting actor shortlist for Joe Wright's November release The Soloist.

This seems to be the year for Robert Downey Jr., a man whose dry wit and impeccable comedic timing has charmed audiences (or at least, certain cliques of audiences) for years. And surely it doesn't hurt that RDJr. has received a past nomination for Chaplin, in which he played the title character and one of film's most beloved performers, nor that he was semi-snubbed for playing Paul Avery in last year's procedural thriller Zodiac.

I'm rather speculating that, with his history, and with the type of year he seems to be having, could Downey Jr.'s chances be extremely assisted? Or, as Sean Flynn speculated in a seperate topic, could it actually handicap him?

Your thoughts..

Coming off a year when the Oscars were chided for focusing on films America didn't see, I'd say Downey (nearly a lock for EW's Entertainer of the Year) is almost certain for at least a nomination.

This is contingent upon the movie & performance being good, of course.

As for the win, nothing's a lock until the playing field is set. Theorize all we want, but no one's got a shot at winning until some of the shoes drop off the early hyped projects.

quote:

Originally posted by Professor Chaos:
Coming off a year when the Oscars were chided for focusing on films America didn't see, I'd say Downey (nearly a lock for EW's Entertainer of the Year) is almost certain for at least a nomination.

I agree. If The Soloist is any good, he'll probably get in there first since it seems to be a kind of movie Oscar goes for. (I don't know what to think of Joe Wright behind it like I'm not sure how well Ron Howard fits with Frost/Nixon). If that doesn't pan out though, I could see Downey Jr. getting in for Iron Man like Johnny Depp got in for POTC.

This is contingent upon the movie & performance being good, of course.

quote:

As for the win, nothing's a lock until the playing field is set. Theorize all we want, but no one's got a shot at winning until some of the shoes drop off the early hyped projects.

True, there aren't any locks yet except for maybe in the animated category. I do think he has a good shot at a nomination this year for something because it's such a great comeback story, and he's very talented actor who seems well liked.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Mrs. Daryl Zero,

Robert Downey Jr. is on fire right now! Iron Man, Tropic Thunder (which I am still puzzled as to why this is even being considered for any oscar buzz), and then The Soloist, for which he will most likely get his nomination from. If he does get a nomination this year, I think it will be mainly in part of recognizing his year in films! Oscar voters will know DOWNEY JR.!

quote:

Originally posted by bocaboy7:
Robert Downey Jr. is on fire right now! Iron Man, Tropic Thunder (which I am still puzzled as to why this is even being considered for any oscar buzz), and then The Soloist, for which he will most likely get his nomination from. If he does get a nomination this year, I think it will be mainly in part of recognizing his year in films! Oscar voters will know DOWNEY JR.!

That's what my speculation is banking on. His projects this year are looking so colossal and clever (for goodness sakes, he plays a black man in Tropic Thunder) that a vote for him here would be a tribute to his entire comeback year. Much like Norbit hurt Eddie Murphy's chances, maybe Iron Man and Tropic will help RDJr's, though unlike Mrs. Zero, I don't think Tony Stark is the kind of role one gets nominated for (unless it's the Globes we're talking about).

Also, is Tropic Thunder actually getting Oscar buzz? I know people are ready to see it, but I didn't know the Academy was taking notice. I find that hilarious... then again, Tom Cruise's cameo might be the sort of Supporting Actor candy people like to vote for.

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:

quote:

Originally posted by bocaboy7:
Robert Downey Jr. is on fire right now! Iron Man, Tropic Thunder (which I am still puzzled as to why this is even being considered for any oscar buzz), and then The Soloist, for which he will most likely get his nomination from. If he does get a nomination this year, I think it will be mainly in part of recognizing his year in films! Oscar voters will know DOWNEY JR.!

That's what my speculation is banking on. His projects this year are looking so colossal and clever (for goodness sakes, he plays a black man in Tropic Thunder) that a vote for him here would be a tribute to his entire comeback year. Much like Norbit hurt Eddie Murphy's chances, maybe Iron Man and Tropic will help RDJr's, though unlike Mrs. Zero, I don't think Tony Stark is the kind of role one gets nominated for (unless it's the Globes we're talking about).

Also, is Tropic Thunder actually getting Oscar buzz? I know people are ready to see it, but I didn't know the Academy was taking notice. I find that hilarious... then again, Tom Cruise's cameo might be the sort of Supporting Actor candy people like to vote for.

The reason why Iron Man & Tropic Thunder will help RDJr. and Norbit didn't for Murphy is becuase NORBIT SUCKED! At least Iron Man was pretty good, and I'm assuming Tropic Thunder will be "successful" as well. Iron Man + Box Office Hit = MAJOR MOVIE STAR! Oscars like major movie stars!

And about Tropic Thunder with oscar buzz, I don't make this stuff up! When I saw that a few days ago, I was literally on my floor laughing! And then I read that Tom Cruise will be making a cameo as a fat hairy guy with Paris Hilton's mom as his wife - and THIS is getting oscar buzz... Maybe it's an excuse to finally give Tom Cruise that oscar he has always wanted... What's next, The Hottie And The Nottie getting a best makeup nomination at the oscars? I wouldn't be surprised if someone already has brought that up...

This message has been edited. Last edited by: bocaboy7,

There were some anonymous "industry insiders" quoted in an MTV News article about "Oscar buzz" for Tropic Thunder. That probably translates to "Dreamworks executives excited about box office potential." If there's any legit buzz, it'll only be for screenplay: That's where buzzed comedies get the playful pat on the ass nomination from Oscar.

Tropic won't hurt Downey's chances because it's a smart satire (according to a friend whose seen it anyway) lampooning Hollywood actors, not mindless child's play like Norbit. It'll open to decent reviews (my predictions are 75% on RT, 68% on Metacritic), and do great box office.

So the Iron Man/Tropic Thunder combo will throw all the attention Downey for the Soloist. But again, we're just talking about "attention." For all we know, Jamie Foxx might overshadow RDJ's Soloist performance.

Bottom line: Box office clout can buy a nomination, but by no means a win.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Professor Chaos,

quote:

Originally posted by Professor Chaos:
Bottom line: Box office clout can buy a nomination, but by no means a win.

Precisely.

From the title of this thread, I thought someone was suggesting "Iron Man" would win Robert Downey Jr. an Oscar. Now that's a thought!

I have Robert Downey Jr. in my predictions list for a Best Supporting Actor nomination ("The Soloist").

Even though it's waaayyyy to premature to assume that The Soloist will be a player at the Oscars (even though it sounds ready made for it), I would hope that, if The Soloist does do well, Oscar-wise, RDJ will get a nomination. By December, he will have had the best year of his life, acting-wise.

Let's also remember that this is not only a great year for Downey Jr., but he also has a hell of a comeback story. A few years ago, people were awaiting news that, any minute now, he was going to O.D. or get alcohol poisoning... and now look at him. So here we are with the speculation:

Past Oscar nomination (Best Actor, Chaplin)
+ Two Summer Comedies
+ Global Box Office Blockbuster
+ Comeback Story - Rags to Riches
= High Oscar Probability

Robert Downey Jr. can grab a nod ala Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean. What's better is that thus won't be the first time he was nommed so he's no stranger to Oscar voters. However, the fathest he can reach is a nomination. A win is still out of topic IMO.