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Not always right, but no fool either
Posted
1st Sat AM estimates - expect some slight adjustment.

These are disappointing for both I Love You Man & Duplicity if they hold up, but again they are early.

1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Fri $8.8M, Wkd est $25M
2. I Love You, Man (DW/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Fri $6.2M, Wkd est $17.6M
3. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Fri $4.6M, Wkd est $14.3M
4. Witch Mountain (Disney) Week 1 [3,187] Fri $3.7M (-45%), Wkd est $13.6M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,510] Fri $2M, Wkd est $7.6M
6. Last House (Rogue/Uni) Week 2 [2,403] Fri $1.9M, Wkd est $6.1M
7. Taken (Fox) Week 8 [2,661] Fri $1.3M, Wkd est $4.3M
 
Posts: 17499 | Registered: January 26, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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It's so weird how a trailer can change your intention to watch a movie.

I remember being so excited when I read about "Duplicity". Tony Gilroy, Julia Roberts, Clive Owen, Paul Giamatti and Tom Wilkinson in a story about spies. However, I'm having second thoughts after seeing the trailer. The movie looked like a comedy (I didn't expect that at all) and the performances of the two leads felt smug. I think I don't care for Julia Roberts anymore. I had forgotten how awful she was in "Closer" and "Ocean's Twelve".

"Knowing" was the complete opposite. I have watched only two Nicolas Cage movies this decade ("Adaptation" & "World Trade Center"). Based on his recent output, I assumed this would be atrocious, but the trailer was intriguing and it featured some interesting disaster scenes. That type of movie is a major guilty pleasure for me.

How do you guys decide what to see? Should I trust my initial instincts about these two movies? Would that be fair given that I hadn't seen a single shot?
 
Posts: 1026 | Registered: September 22, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Not always right, but no fool either
Posted Hide Post
Variety recap:

Audiences 'Knowing' what they want
Nicolas Cage thriller nabs $8.9 million Friday
By ANTHONY D'ALESSANDROSummit Entertainment's Nicolas Cage sci-fi thriller "Knowing" outsmarted two other wide releases yesterday grossing an estimated $8.9 million off 3,332 engagements.
Pic about a professor who attempts to thwart a global disaster after uncovering a series of cataclysmic predictions marks the second best opening day for Cage outside the summer and holiday frame following 2007's "Ghost Rider" which chalked up $15.4 million. Among all of Cage's opening days, "Knowing" ranks fourth with 2007's "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" being his highest at $16.7 million.

"Knowing" is also the second best opening day for Summit after November's "Twilight" ($36 million) since launching its domestic distribution arm in 2007.

Directed by Alex Proyas, "Knowing" is the helmer's first film since his 2004 Will Smith sci-fi hit "I, Robot" which racked up $144.8 million at the domestic B.O. "Knowing" looks to retain its hold on the number one spot through the weekend and should clear past $20 million.

Paramount/DreamWorks' R-rated buddy comedy "I Love You, Man" starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segel slotted second with $6.3 million off 2,711. Pic's opening day is in sync with last spring's R-rated male laffer "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" which made $6 million on its first Friday and a three-day weekend of $17.7 million. Segel headlined and wrote "Marshall" while Rudd co-starred in the pic.

The Julia Roberts-Clive Owen romantic caper "Duplicity" from Universal took third with $4.7 million off 2,574. Directed by Tony Gilroy of "Michael Clayton" fame, "Duplicity" has been receiving a positive reaction from critics. Among Roberts' headliners, "Duplicty's" opening day came in ahead of 2007's "Charlie Wilson's War" ($2.8 million) and below 2000's "Erin Brockovich" ($8.1 million) for which she won an Oscar for best actress.

The trio of wide entries pushed Disney's No. 1 film from last weekend, "Race to Witch Mountain," to fourth. Pic collected $3.8 million, down 44%, from 3,187 for an eight-day haul of $35.5 million.

Warner Bros./Par's fanboy film "Watchmen" grossed $2 million off 3,510 in fifth, down 62% in its third Friday for a running domestic cume of $93.3 million.

On the specialty side, Magnolia's "The Great Buck Howard" starring Colin Hanks, Emily Blunt and John Malkovich generated $29,000 at 55 sites for a per theater of $535. Focus Features' Spanish-lingo drama "Sin Nombre" about Central American immigrants fleeing to the United States charted a per theater of $3,783 from six engagements or $23,000.



More complete #s


1 KNOWING
Summit Entertainment

3,332
$8,950,000

-- / $2,686
$8,950,000

2 I LOVE YOU, MAN
Paramount (DreamWorks)

2,711
$6,350,000

$2,342
$6,350,000

3 DUPLICITY
Universal

2,574
$4,700,000

-$1,826
$4,700,000

4 RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN
Buena Vista

3,187
$3,800,000

$1,192
$35,511,000

5 WATCHMEN
Warner Bros.

3,510
$2,025,000

$577
$93,365,000

6 THE LAST HOUSE ON THE LEFT (2009)
Universal

2,402
$1,970,000

$820
$20,096,000

7 TAKEN
Fox

2,661
$1,375,000

$517
$130,414,000

8 SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Fox Searchlight

2,067
$805,000

$389
$135,307,000

9 TYLER PERRY'S MADEA GOES TO JAIL
Lionsgate

1,835
$795,000

$433
$85,493,000

10 CORALINE
Focus Features

1,431
$630,000

$440
$71,340,000

11 PAUL BLART: MALL COP
Sony / Columbia

1,762
$570,000

$323
$139,779,000

12 HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU
Warner Bros. (New Line)

1,302
$440,000

$338
$90,734,000

- SUNSHINE CLEANING
Overture Films

64
$180,000

$2,813
$468,000

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,
 
Posts: 17499 | Registered: January 26, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Wow, more people went to see Knowing than I Love You Man?

I just saw ILYM, it's my fave film of 2009 so far!


Milk is delicious!
 
Posts: 353 | Registered: December 18, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
GH
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Jettasian:
Wow, more people went to see Knowing than I Love You Man?

I just saw ILYM, it's my fave film of 2009 so far!


ILYM will outgross Knowing in the end. It's going to have solid word-of-mouth and better legs than Knowing.

It's so weird how hit and miss Cage's films are. Doesn't this film look awfully similar to Next which no one went to see?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: GH,



Grammy FYC:
Kanye West, 808s & Heartbreak; Black Eyed Peas, The E.N.D.; John Legend, Evolver; Paolo Nutini, Sunny Side Up; David Guetta, One Love; Kelly Clarkson, "Already Gone"; Jordin Sparks, "Battlefield"; Kings Of Leon, "Use Somebody"; Maxwell, "Pretty Wings"

 
Posts: 8069 | Registered: February 06, 2004Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Boxoffice Mojo sayeth thusly:

1 Knowing $24,814,000
2 I Love You, Man $18,005,000
3 Duplicity $14,402,000
4 Race to Witch Mountain $13,004,000 ($44,715,000)
5 Watchmen $6,725,000 ($98,065,000)
6 Last House on the Left $5,921,000 $24,047,000)
7 Taken $4,100,000 ($133,139,000)
8 Slumdog Millionaire $2,700,000 ($137,202,000)
9 Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail $2,510,000 ($87,208,000)
10 Coraline $2,143,000 ($72,803,000)
11 Paul Blart: Mall Cop $1,875,000 ($141,084,000)
12 He's Just Not That Into You $1,270,000 ($91,564,000)
13 Confessions of a Shopaholic $761,000 ($42,948,000)
14 Fired Up $750,000 ($16,803,000)
15 Gran Torino $735,000 ($145,090,000)
16 Sunshine Cleaning $705,000 ($994,000)
17 Miss March $680,000 ($4,137,000)
18 The Reader $545,000 ($32,909,000)
19 Hotel for Dogs $407,000 ($70,910,000)
20 Under the Sea 3D $386,000 ($3,900,000)
 
Posts: 4233 | Location: SE Pennsylvania | Registered: May 27, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Posted Hide Post
So is 18m for ILYM good or below expectation?


Milk is delicious!
 
Posts: 353 | Registered: December 18, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Not always right, but no fool either
Posted Hide Post
Both I Love You and Duplicity are below expectations.

Duplicity played almost entirely over 30 and majority female, both audiences that if they like a movie can sustain it with good word of mouth; it did not attract a prime movie audience (which of course is a different universe from the Academy member audience.)

Watchman is dying out, and will struggle to get to $130 million, and is in serious risk of losing money.

SM because of its DVD release 3/31 will top out around $145 million, maybe a bit less; Juno was around $143 million (Searchlight's current biggest grosser).

Variety:

'Knowing' tops weekend box office
'Love,' 'Duplicity' fall short of expectations
By PAMELA MCCLINTOCKSummit Entertainment's Nicolas Cage starrer "Knowing" easily topped the weekend box office chart in debuting to an estimated $24.8 million, while buddy laffer "I Love You, Man" and Julia Roberts' topliner "Duplicity" came in on the lower end of expectations.
"I Love You, Man," starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segal, grossed an estimated $18 million from 2,711 runs to place No. 2, according to Rentrak. Box observers predicted it would do closer to $20 million.

"Duplicity," pairing Roberts with Clive Owen, grossed an estimated $14.4 million from 2,574 runs. Overseas, the film grossed $4.2 million as it opened in 11 territories for a worldwide opening haul of $18.6.

Most thought "Duplicity" would come in higher domestically, based on Roberts' name. Film could have hampered by the fact that it appealed mostly to older women; 78% of the aud were over the age of 30, making it a one quadrant movie.

Since femme driven pics and comedies don't necessarily need big openings, but rather strong legs, "Duplicity" and "I Love You, Man" have room to maneuver.

"Love You Man" in particular could take advantage of college kids and older high schoolers being out of school for spring break.

"Knowing" marks Cage's sixth best opening. Summit says the successful pic's bow was another sizeable victory for the indie studio, which is home to the "Twilight" franchise.

Summit reported strong sales for the DVD launch of "Twilight," which went on sale Saturday (Tuesday is the traditional day for DVD debuts). Studio, however, did not have.

Overall, the weekend box office was down 5% over the same frame last year. It's the second weekend in a row that the domestic B.O. has beend own. Studio execs say it could just be a temporary lull.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,
 
Posts: 17499 | Registered: January 26, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Well, I would love to see Duplicity, but with JRo starring, I will pass, can't stand her. lol


Milk is delicious!
 
Posts: 353 | Registered: December 18, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Posted Hide Post
Thus, my Duplicity prediction will come true. . .
 
Posts: 3790 | Location: Earth | Registered: April 11, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Not always right, but no fool either
Posted Hide Post
Paul Giamatti is likely a contender for the rest the year, so thus, my prediction will come true.
 
Posts: 17499 | Registered: January 26, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by seanflynn:
Paul Giamatti is likely a contender for the rest the year, so thus, my prediction will come true.


If so, it would be a career or makeup nomination, esp. for snubbing Giamatti's fine work in Sideways.
 
Posts: 6185 | Registered: July 05, 2008Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Alc
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by MissyGal:
Thus, my Duplicity prediction will come true. . .


Which only proves that one can make a correct guess while not having the vaguest clue what they're talking about.

I mean, I've seen the movie, and I doubt it will contend. But I went back and saw your reasons. And I mean... like wow.

But keep calling the film 'fluffy' if you want.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Alc,
 
Posts: 887 | Registered: August 27, 2002Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Alc
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Pucifer:
quote:
Originally posted by seanflynn:
Paul Giamatti is likely a contender for the rest the year, so thus, my prediction will come true.


If so, it would be a career or makeup nomination, esp. for snubbing Giamatti's fine work in Sideways.


You don't get a makeup nomination when you've already received a makeup nomination. He already received one.
 
Posts: 887 | Registered: August 27, 2002Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Alc:
quote:
Originally posted by MissyGal:
Thus, my Duplicity prediction will come true. . .


Which only proves that one can make a correct guess while not having the vaguest clue what they're talking about.

I mean, I've seen the movie, and I doubt it will contend. But I went back and saw your reasons. And I mean... like wow.

But keep calling the film 'fluffy' if you want.

I'm not saying that the film is fluffy, but it comes across that way.
 
Posts: 3790 | Location: Earth | Registered: April 11, 2005Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Alc:
quote:
Originally posted by Pucifer:
quote:
Originally posted by seanflynn:
Paul Giamatti is likely a contender for the rest the year, so thus, my prediction will come true.


If so, it would be a career or makeup nomination, esp. for snubbing Giamatti's fine work in Sideways.


You don't get a makeup nomination when you've already received a makeup nomination. He already received one.


Did you or anyone else beside Mikead see Cinderella Man?
 
Posts: 6185 | Registered: July 05, 2008Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Alc
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Pucifer:
quote:
Originally posted by Alc:
quote:
Originally posted by Pucifer:
quote:
Originally posted by seanflynn:
Paul Giamatti is likely a contender for the rest the year, so thus, my prediction will come true.


If so, it would be a career or makeup nomination, esp. for snubbing Giamatti's fine work in Sideways.


You don't get a makeup nomination when you've already received a makeup nomination. He already received one.


Did you or anyone else beside Mikead see Cinderella Man?


You mean, besides the ones who saw to it that Giamatti received his makeup nomination?

The answer is, yes. More people saw "Cinderella Man" than they did "Milk" or "The Reader", even if the box office numbers aren't adjusted for inflation.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Alc,
 
Posts: 887 | Registered: August 27, 2002Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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I saw Cinderlla Man. I thought Giamatti was easily the best thing in it. And yes, that was a makeup nomination. I hope he gets another role as good as the one in Sideways and then gets nominated for it. I'd love to see him win an Oscar some day.
 
Posts: 2453 | Registered: September 23, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Alc
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by MissyGal:
quote:
Originally posted by Alc:
quote:
Originally posted by MissyGal:
Thus, my Duplicity prediction will come true. . .


Which only proves that one can make a correct guess while not having the vaguest clue what they're talking about.

I mean, I've seen the movie, and I doubt it will contend. But I went back and saw your reasons. And I mean... like wow.

But keep calling the film 'fluffy' if you want.

I'm not saying that the film is fluffy, but it comes across that way.


But then some reviewers actually SAW THE MOVIE, and that's how we learned that the movie that comes across in the previews is not in any way the actual movie.

What I mean is, while you were still processing the trailer, some of us were already beyond that. You gotta keep up, Gal!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Alc,
 
Posts: 887 | Registered: August 27, 2002Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Alc:
quote:
Originally posted by Pucifer:
quote:
Originally posted by Alc:
quote:
Originally posted by Pucifer:
quote:
Originally posted by seanflynn:
Paul Giamatti is likely a contender for the rest the year, so thus, my prediction will come true.


If so, it would be a career or makeup nomination, esp. for snubbing Giamatti's fine work in Sideways.


You don't get a makeup nomination when you've already received a makeup nomination. He already received one.


Did you or anyone else beside Mikead see Cinderella Man?


You mean, besides the ones who saw to it that Giamatti received his makeup nomination?

The answer is, yes. More people saw "Cinderella Man" than they did "Milk" or "The Reader", even if the box office numbers aren't adjusted for inflation.


But did YOU see it?

BTW, box office has NO direct correlation to film quality.
 
Posts: 6185 | Registered: July 05, 2008Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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