OF COURSE. Oscar will be scrambling this year to find 10 pictures worthy of a Best Pic nod, and UP certainly is a worthy contender.

I think that with more and more films being tossed into the mix Up has a lesser and lesser chance of getting in. Just in the past weeks A Single Man, A Serious Man, Where the Wild Things Are, Up in the Air and The Last Station have shown themselves to be legitimate contenders. But I wouldn't write an Up nomination off completely.

quote:

Originally posted by puxzkkx:
I think that with more and more films being tossed into the mix Up has a lesser and lesser chance of getting in. Just in the past weeks A Single Man, A Serious Man, Where the Wild Things Are, Up in the Air and The Last Station have shown themselves to be legitimate contenders. But I wouldn't write an Up nomination off completely.

How has Where the Wild Things Are shown itself "to be a serious contender"? All of those mediocre reviews?

To me the reviews seem quite strong, and word of mouth has been great

Some of these contenders may highlight the actors, but fail to get a BP nom; ie Colin Firth, Helen Mirren, Abbey Cornish.

I dont see any worries for UP making the Animated lineup. I think it will make the Top 10 too, although I am somewhat worried about the sphincter-clenching, imbecilic bias against animated films, and this bizarre need to keep them in the Animated category. I think this attitude might be a minority view.

But even with this prejudice, Up is IN. That's my prediction.

As part of the reason to expand to ten was to have more popular films in the line-up I definitely expect a film that combines raves and box-office like "Up" to make the line-up. Also, as a sop to Pixar for passing on "WALL-E" last year even though it was probably the most acclaimed American film of the year.

I'm not sure. The animation branch - most likely to give it #1 - is quite small. If Ponyo wins most of the critics' awards (possible), it will decrease its chances a bit.

I'd say more likely than not, but a close call. But then it will depend on part on how strong the unseen remaining potential films are of course.

I tend to agree with pacinofan here. The memory of Wall-E is a probable factor.

Ponyo, while beautiful and worthy, may suffer from the Japanese-to-English translation. And it truly is a children's film, esoteric. Nothing wrong with that, but it may tilt the voters towards Up, which has a more universal appeal.

quote:

Originally posted by puxzkkx:
Just in the past weeks A Single Man, A Serious Man, Where the Wild Things Are, Up in the Air and The Last Station have shown themselves to be legitimate contenders.

The Last Station won't be nominated for Best Picture and probably won't score any acting nominations, either. It's too small and too unknown.

Where the Wild Things Are will need to be content with earning some big returns because it's simply is not the type of movie that gets nominated.

I'd be surprised if both of the "Man" pictures are nominated as voters will probably confuse the two similarly named films. I'll side with the Coens for now but both films need to make some noise.

Up in the Air is the only slam dunk nominee in your list, well, alongside "Up", that is. The former has everything going for it while the latter simply is a beloved film of a criminally underappreciated genre and studio in a very weak year. It's a pity that Docter and Peterson aren't being considered viable Director nominees. I'm not sure that Academy bias will end in the next 20 years, let alone this one.

I wonder if there are even any animation directors (other than people who are mainly live-action like Tim Burton) in the directors' branch - they are probably all in the animation branch. That's going to make the barrier even harder to overcome.

quote:

Originally posted by LonePirate:

quote:

Originally posted by puxzkkx:
Just in the past weeks A Single Man, A Serious Man, Where the Wild Things Are, Up in the Air and The Last Station have shown themselves to be legitimate contenders.

The Last Station won't be nominated for Best Picture and probably won't score any acting nominations, either. It's too small and too unknown.

Where the Wild Things Are will need to be content with earning some big returns because it's simply is not the type of movie that gets nominated.

I'd be surprised if both of the "Man" pictures are nominated as voters will probably confuse the two similarly named films. I'll side with the Coens for now but both films need to make some noise.

Up in the Air is the only slam dunk nominee in your list, well, alongside "Up", that is. The former has everything going for it while the latter simply is a beloved film of a criminally underappreciated genre and studio in a very weak year. It's a pity that Docter and Peterson aren't being considered viable Director nominees. I'm not sure that Academy bias will end in the next 20 years, let alone this one.

A bio of Leo Tolstoy with strong film festival response starring Christopher Plummer who despite never receiving an Oscar nom has been described in a few different sources as the greatest living actor in the English language (admittedly for his theatre work rather than film) seems the kind of thing that would get him a best actor nom. I do not think it has much chance of a best picture nom, though a Leo Tolstoy bio starring Plummer and Helen Mirren sounds like Oscar stuff on paper, but would not be surprised if the stars and James McAvoy, who has seemed like an Oscar nom waiting to happen for a while, were nominees. I will actually be surprised if Christopher Plummer is not a nominee.

Has the been confirmed yet as even opening this year? Last I heard it was undecided.

Ryan Gosling was the last Canadian Actor to get an acting nomination. Dan Aykroyd received a nom for Driving Miss Daisy. Chief Dan George in 1971. Graham Greene, Dances With Wolves. Before that, it was Walter Pidgeon in 1943. There was Walter Huston and Raymond Massey, between 1929-1949.
Out of this bunch only Walter Huston has actually won.
And I'm not counting any of the women.

So it happens. Christopher Plummer is a National Treasure and I'd love to see him nominated, if his film is even eligible this year.
It's too bad that Gordon Pinsent was overlooked for Away From Her. I think I'm a little gun-shy from even hoping for Plummer.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: babypook,

I voted Yes on "Up" making it into Best Picture, but I am not very confident on that. I still believe there is a huge bias against animated films making it into the Best Picture lineup. As long as that Animated Film category exists, I think it will be very hard for any animated film to be nominated for Best Picture. Including "Up".

I don't know. It was critically acclaimed. It had huge box office. And "WALL-E" truly should have been a BP nominee last year.

What kind of campaign is Disney going run for "Up" for Best Picture? I'm curious to know how aggressive they are going to be now that there are 10 slots.

Mary Pickford and Marie Dressler were both Canadian, right? I think there may have been one or two other female winners.

Anna Paquin has dual citizenship with Canada. The Tilley sisters, Genevieve Bujold and Kate Nelligan were nominated (just the actors).

I guess we'll see if Rachel McAdams comes close again.


I sure hope Up isnt held off the BP ballot. I share LadyHathor's concerns. I'm sure most of us do.

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
Anna Paquin has dual citizenship with Canada. The Tilley sisters, Genevieve Bujold and Kate Nelligan were nominated (just the actors).

I guess we'll see if Rachel McAdams comes close again.


I sure hope Up isnt held off the BP ballot. I share LadyHathor's concerns. I'm sure most of us do.

* oops! I forgot to mention Ellen Page.

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:
As part of the reason to expand to ten was to have more popular films in the line-up I definitely expect a film that combines raves and box-office like "Up" to make the line-up. Also, as a sop to Pixar for passing on "WALL-E" last year even though it was probably the most acclaimed American film of the year.

Nicely put. If anything. the exclusion of both Wall E and The Dark Knight last year led to the ten nominee rule for Best Picture. So with positive reviews, good word of mouth, and nice box office, Up is looking like a sure contender with 10 slots.

quote:

Originally posted by LadyHathor25:
I voted Yes on "Up" making it into Best Picture, but I am not very confident on that. I still believe there is a huge bias against animated films making it into the Best Picture lineup. As long as that Animated Film category exists, I think it will be very hard for any animated film to be nominated for Best Picture. Including "Up".

I don't know. It was critically acclaimed. It had huge box office. And "WALL-E" truly should have been a BP nominee last year.

Yes, it looks like it would be a likely nominee especially since they expanded the Best Picture field to 10 nominees, but there's the end of the year logjam coming again along with the usual animated bias in play. This year seems weak, but so did last year, and WALL-E still couldn't breakthrough even with many top critics' prizes. Up may appeal to more of the older members of the Academy than WALL-E, but then there's the animated bias again.

Of course, I admit I would actually like it if their experiment backfired even after expanding the field to 10, and they failed to nominate any or many populist pictures like the producers and ABC would prefer and instead wound up with more smaller movies that don't go wide in many places until the next year, and maybe forgotten about by that time because there's so many other Oscar hopefuls competing for screens. I don't think it will ever cure them of releasing most Oscar projects in late November and December and usually only in LA and NYC at first, but it's nice to dream.

Finally, I could see the voters being contrarian and not voting for pictures like Up because they hate the 10 nominee idea and perhaps feeling like that they have to vote for someone because the public/producers expects them to. Sure they are predictable too, but I think they can be resentful sometimes at times, and that may actually work against pictures that made a lot of money instead of the new change helping them.