For newcomers - DGA refuses to let members get screeners (those who are writers and/or AMPAS members only get them); all DGA members - who are mainly TV people, including game shows, soap operas, anything that has a director - votes. Despite this they do usually closely parallel the Oscars, although the latter tends to take more risks and recognize foreigners more (I'd be shocked if Mike Leigh for example were a nominee; Andrew Stanton has a better chance here than with the Academy).
Didn't know Michael Musto was somebody we were taking seriously here...has he always been here? I don't know it's just that all images I have from him are from The Gossip Show on E! a million years ago, I can't take anything he says seriously....
And well what else can you say about this depressing year...don't know why anybody would predict Mike Leigh here, I agree with Seanflynn, that has to be the weirdest prediction ever, if this were a Secrets and Lies year the yes, but for Happy Go Lucky (loved it!) I don't think so...
Boyle Fincher Howard Nolan Van Sant
Sam Mendes will pop up before Stanton or Leigh, specially Leigh....Sadly even if PGA, other guilds and other members of the Academy take them seriously and nominate them, Animated movies will forever direct themselves...even if Wall E gets into Best Picture...
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Benito Delicias,
The DGA nominated Howard for both Cocoon and Apollo 13 (he won for the latter); in both cases, the Academy didn't. (He of course was named by both for A Beautiful Mind). He might be hurt by low viewing of the film.
I'm keeping all this in mind for Howard in both cases....this year he has a movie that it's nowhere near the acceptance or popularity that Mind or Apollo had....
I'm predicting him to go the Apollo route this year, nominated at DGA and first in line to be replaced at the Oscars...although really...who would replace him?, not feeling the love for Leigh or Happy Go Lucky outside of critics, and like I said, animated movies seem to direct themselves....that's why he's such a wildcard for me...Didn't know there was low viewing of the film, that only makes me predict him even less now....
Originally posted by Benito Delicias: and like I said, animated movies seem to direct themselves....
Hoping you are referring to a sentiment which you are guessing is prominant in live-action film circles. Because although I don't know much about what the role specifically entailes I am guessing that directing an animated film is just as challanging as directing a live action one (with different hurdles I'm sure) and what Stanton has been able to archive with WALL-E holds up well against any live-action directing effort I have seen this year so far.
I don't think he will get nominated (although I wouldn't be shocked if he was) I guess Mendes is also a shot and I guess Eastwood could be a wildcard (although that would shock me). I think the 5 most likley are the consencus choices here and if I wanted to pick an upset I'd replace Howard with Stanton.
Congratulations West Wing, Emmys most honored drama. 27 Emmys including 4 best drama series "What's Next?"
Posts: 2454 | Location: Sydney, Australia | Registered: September 07, 2005
Originally posted by seanflynn: He might be hurt by low viewing of the film.
True, but don't you think Howard may also be affected by his lack of passionate supporters?
There is general strong support for Boyle, Fincher, Nolan and even Van Sant. I'm not getting the same sense for Howard. I have a feeling he'll get the DGA nod, but he'll get snubbed for directing at the Oscars.
Originally posted by Benito Delicias: and like I said, animated movies seem to direct themselves....
Hoping you are referring to a sentiment which you are guessing is prominant in live-action film circles. Because although I don't know much about what the role specifically entailes I am guessing that directing an animated film is just as challanging as directing a live action one (with different hurdles I'm sure) and what Stanton has been able to archive with WALL-E holds up well against any live-action directing effort I have seen this year so far.
I don't think he will get nominated (although I wouldn't be shocked if he was) I guess Mendes is also a shot and I guess Eastwood could be a wildcard (although that would shock me). I think the 5 most likley are the consencus choices here and if I wanted to pick an upset I'd replace Howard with Stanton.
of course I didn't mean it as my view...it's what seems to go around...Believe me, I wanted The Incredibles to be nominated for Picture, Director, Art Direction(!), Score (huge robbery that one) plus the ones it got....
Originally posted by Tom O'Neil: Michael is one of the best Oscarologists around. I've added him to our guru lineup because I have serious respect for his views.
like I said, it's the image of him on The Gossip Show, I don't think I've seen him since...maybe he changed...don't know...
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Benito Delicias,
Is it just me or does something not feel right. I feel like a snub is coming to one of the directors on the list, but I'm not sure who might grab the spot.
I would say Boyle, Fincher and Van Sant are Locks.
But anything can happen with Nolan and Howard.
Could Andrew Stanton slip in, is he eligable? What about Stephen Daldry, he has directed 2 films and received Oscar nominations for Director for both, not a bad record.
Posts: 1360 | Location: Lost In England | Registered: December 26, 2003
Originally posted by Tom O'Neil: Michael is one of the best Oscarologists around. I've added him to our guru lineup because I have serious respect for his views.
Well, I'm NOT on the list. Does that mean you don't respect my views, Tom?
---- OSCAR FYC: Best Picture - "Up" Best Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man" Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan, "Lovely Bones" Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, "Basterds" Best Original Screenplay - "Up"
Posts: 1924 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
Originally posted by Jason Travis: This really is going to matter the most for Nolan, who if gets a DGA mention can rest assure The Dark Knight will be a best picture nominee.
Not necessarily. The acting branch is massive and can send zingers into the BP lineup. The Dark Knight is far from a safe bet for BP.
Posts: 323 | Location: Burbank, CA | Registered: September 20, 2003
Originally posted by Jason Travis: This really is going to matter the most for Nolan, who if gets a DGA mention can rest assure The Dark Knight will be a best picture nominee.
Not necessarily. The acting branch is massive and can send zingers into the BP lineup. The Dark Knight is far from a safe bet for BP.
I definitely see Jason's point, and almost agree. But The Dark Knight is just one of those films that can't be "rest assured" until the morning of nom announcements. It is on such thin ice, mostly because it would be a record-setting first (first comic book BP nom, second highest grossing BP nom ever, first BP nom starring masked crusader, first... ya know). Until the last moment possible, nothing is certain for Batman.
---- OSCAR FYC: Best Picture - "Up" Best Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man" Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan, "Lovely Bones" Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, "Basterds" Best Original Screenplay - "Up"
Posts: 1924 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
I'm really hoping Andrew Stanton gets in over Howard or Fincher.
Grammy FYC: Kanye West, 808s & Heartbreak; Black Eyed Peas, The E.N.D.; John Legend, Evolver; Paolo Nutini, Sunny Side Up; David Guetta, One Love; Kelly Clarkson, "Already Gone"; Jordin Sparks, "Battlefield"; Kings Of Leon, "Use Somebody"; Maxwell, "Pretty Wings"
