We have a best actor and actress thread, but not a best picture one yet.

With the expansion to 10 slots, we are entering into unchartered territory where it is going to take at least one, if not more, years for us to get a handle on how this change will affect the nominations. My guess for this year is that by the time nomination day comes, there still could be 20-25 possible nominees swirling around, with 5-7 pretty obvious, but the last 3-5 slots up for grabs among a lot of films.

With that in mind, I am listing those films released so far this year that are the most likely to be part of the competition. A few will seem dead before we get to the nominations, but each I've list will have some support, and most will have #1 choices.

My list has been influenced by what we see the studios listing so far (that Universal is not bothering with State of Play, for example, makes me drop it from the list).

I'm sure there will be scoffing at some of the titles. And indeed there are a couple I think are unlikely (Harry Potter for example). But this year is new ground - we don't know how it is going to work. There could be some BP nominees that have only 0-2 other nominations.

Here goes:

Star Trek
Up
The Hurt Locker
Public Enemies
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
500 Days of Summer
Julie & Julia
District 9
Ponyo
Inglourious Basterds
Bright Star
Capitalism: A Love Story
A Serious Man
Coco Before Chanel
An Education
Where the Wild Things Are


with at least that number of films still to be released.

In previous years, guessing the 5 BP nominees was hardly unusual. This year, I doubt anyone will guess all 10.

(If I missed anything obvious, please mention it. Also, I will be amending this list regularly as new films open.)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

This could be a premature prediction (but aren't all predictions somewhat premature?), but I think we will be able to find ten good Best Picture contenders just in time to avoid including box-office hits like "Harry Potter" and "Star Trek," which I know was a concern this summer.

"Capitalism?" Could we finally get a documentary in the BP race? Or will Moore have to settle for a nod in Doc?

"Bright Star" is almost certain for Original Screenplay right now, but Best Picture is still unclear as far as I can see. An inclusion would not surprise me in the least.

"An Education" is something we have debated for a while. Does it have buzz, or does it not? No doubt Mulligan is looking good for an Actress nomination, but will the entire film follow her? Right now, I'm including it.

"Where the Wild Things Are" is getting mild reviews, but certain has its pool of four-star reviews as well. I'd love to see it get in, even if just for Director. Is it possible we will have a director nominated for a film that, even with 10 slots, is overlooked? That would be a thing to see.

Here's what we don't know -

Will the mindset of having 10 choices, rather than 5, mean that a lot of members will cast their nets wider in listing their choices?

Could the British industry - particularly the crafts category members - rally behind a home-made product like Harry Potter thinking maybe now it has a chance, whereas before it was a wasted voted?

Could the Hollywood counterparts be doing the same?

Could their be a behind the scenes campaign among executives and friends of the Board of Governors to encourage members to think seriously about including mass-audience hits that got at least OK reviews?

We just don't know - which is what makes this change (though I dislike it strongly) interesting.

We'll never know, but my guess is that the vote spread between the 7th-13th place finishers is going to be very, very thin.

What about foreign movies? I think that we can see some non-english languagues movies. And i think that the ones who will be nominated will be better than the ones nominated in the foreign movie category

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Here's what we don't know -

Will the mindset of having 10 choices, rather than 5, mean that a lot of members will cast their nets wider in listing their choices?

Could the British industry - particularly the crafts category members - rally behind a home-made product like Harry Potter thinking maybe now it has a chance, whereas before it was a wasted voted?

Could the Hollywood counterparts be doing the same?

Could their be a behind the scenes campaign among executives and friends of the Board of Governors to encourage members to think seriously about including mass-audience hits that got at least OK reviews?

We just don't know - which is what makes this change (though I dislike it strongly) interesting.

We'll never know, but my guess is that the vote spread between the 7th-13th place finishers is going to be very, very thin.

Sean, you've brought up a great deal of the same concerns that I've been trying to voice. With the expansion from 5 to 10 nomination slots, are voters being (being closed doors and in certain circles) encouraged to nominate more mainstream action/adventure/popcorn-fodder so as to increase the ceremony's television ratings? My chief source of worry is that some will take the mentality of "We want to appeal to the action movie fans as well, so we better start grabbing votes for 'Transformers 2'."

Whereas before many believed that 'fan fave' films were being passed up for the artsy and the indie, I'm concerned that this new expansion may cause the problem to not lift but shift (probably the other end of the spectrum); in essence, that a misreading of audience demands will lead voters to 'give the people what they want,' which I feel may result in certain very qualified pictures being passed over for a nod.

quote:

Originally posted by JOSE:
What about foreign movies? I think that we can see some non-english languagues movies. And i think that the ones who will be nominated will be better than the ones nominated in the foreign movie category

If the ten nominees sticks around for a while we will certainly see years with multiple foreign language nominees but I do not think it will be the case this year. The most likely this year would be "White Ribbon" and "A Prophet" but both may be too difficult for Oscar voters. "Broken Embraces" does not seem to be getting as good of reviews as other recent Pedrom Almodovar fare so I doubt it will be a player. Now that "Coco Before Chanel" fever has worn off and seems to have just been amongst New York fashionistas I do not think that it has much chance anymore with its mediocre reviews.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:

quote:

Originally posted by JOSE:
What about foreign movies? I think that we can see some non-english languagues movies. And i think that the ones who will be nominated will be better than the ones nominated in the foreign movie category

If the ten nominees sticks around for a while we will certainly see years with multiple foreign language nominees but I do not think it will be the case this year. The most likely this year would be "White Ribbon" and "A Prophet" but both may be too difficult for Oscar voters. "Broken Embraces" does not seem to be getting as good of reviews as other recent Pedrom Almodovar fare so I doubt it will be a player. Now that "Coco Before Chanel" fever has worn off and seems to have just been amongst New York fashionistas I do not think that it has much chance anymore with its mediocre reviews.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you don't even consider "Antichrist" a player in that list. Personally, it sounds more like a director's picture to me.

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:

quote:

Originally posted by JOSE:
What about foreign movies? I think that we can see some non-english languagues movies. And i think that the ones who will be nominated will be better than the ones nominated in the foreign movie category

If the ten nominees sticks around for a while we will certainly see years with multiple foreign language nominees but I do not think it will be the case this year. The most likely this year would be "White Ribbon" and "A Prophet" but both may be too difficult for Oscar voters. "Broken Embraces" does not seem to be getting as good of reviews as other recent Pedrom Almodovar fare so I doubt it will be a player. Now that "Coco Before Chanel" fever has worn off and seems to have just been amongst New York fashionistas I do not think that it has much chance anymore with its mediocre reviews.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you don't even consider "Antichrist" a player in that list. Personally, it sounds more like a director's picture to me.

There is a good chance that it will premier on VOD the same time it releases so it may not even be in the running. Still, even if it is as many critics hate it I do not think it will have a chance. Charlotte Gainsbourg could be competitive for critics' prizes but even if she is able to be nominated for an Oscar nomination I do not see it happening for a film that apparently contains genital mutilation and many critics say is "ridiculous".

Oh, and the film is in English if you didn't know.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

TELL IT LIKE IT IS (cont.)
No matter how excellent it is--and von Trier has made some great films--the nervous nellies of the Academy are not going to nominate a film called "Antichrist" for Best Picture.

quote:

What about foreign movies? I think that we can see some non-english languagues movies. And i think that the ones who will be nominated will be better than the ones nominated in the foreign movie category

FL films for the most part are DOA in the US these days. Most of the best are released by IFC and to a lesser extent Magnolia, go VOD immediately and are Oscar ineligible. Antichrist is in that category. (It's in English anyway, right?)

I expect I'll be adding at least White Ribbon when it is released assuming it gets strong reviews from the top critics (not a sure thing yet) and does some level of business (even less of a sure thing). Coco Before Chanel is a default choice to be honest - without it, there would have been no foreign language films on the list.

Whether there are any others remains to be seen. I'm not sure A Prophet will be eligible for anything else than FL and even then it would be a long long shot.

For all we know the NYFC might name Gomorrah best FL film - it opened in NY this year. Also 35 Shots of Rum has by far the best reviews of any FL film released this year (indeed, the best reviews period), but even if it won best film from leading critics groups I doubt it would have a chance of being BP nominated.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:
Whereas before many believed that 'fan fave' films were being passed up for the artsy and the indie, I'm concerned that this new expansion may cause the problem to not lift but shift (probably the other end of the spectrum); in essence, that a misreading of audience demands will lead voters to 'give the people what they want,' which I feel may result in certain very qualified pictures being passed over for a nod.

I actually have the opposite worry in that I don't think adding five more nominees is going to change that much at least in respect with the fan favorites now getting in.

First, I think that voters could resent this move far more than we Oscar prognosticators do since it's basically being told, "you voters were wrong, so here's how to correct your mistakes." It might work the opposite way like you wrote but only time will tell.

The other point was that if fan favorites, WALL-E and The Dark Knight, which were both handed to Academy voters on silver platters in a somewhat weak year, I don't think it's suddenly going to be that much easier for fan faves to suddenly get in with five more slots. It seems like it should be, but maybe WALL-E and The Dark Knight still would have been left out if there had been 10 nominees. It seems unlikely since it feels like one or both of them were very close to making it in, but I could have also believe that some combination of Changeling, Doubt, Frozen River, Gran Torino, Rachel Getting Married, Revolutionary Road, and The Wrestler were still ahead of WALL-E and The Dark Knight if there had been 10 nominees last year.

Mrs DZ

Your theory is equally plausible, and could be what happens. It's part of what makes it so tough to predict under these new circumstances.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Mrs DZ

Your theory is equally plausible, and could be what happens. It's part of what makes it so tough to predict under these new circumstances.

I'm with you, Sean, when you said that we will need to wait at least a year before we fully understand how this system will affect the resulting nominees. We have no clue how voters will 'respond' to this change, and we may not garner any idea whatsoever until the nominations are finally announced come January. Needless to say, I'm slightly worried.

That's why I made the list of films released so far this year as a way of trying to test what seems like possible contenders with 10. I listed 16. If there were only 5 slots, I'd probably have limited to

Hurt Locker
Serious Man
An Education


maybe thrown in Where the Wild Things Are in; probably not Up, since WALL-E, considered generally to be better, did not make it in.

But that's four at most, not 16. And frankly, with five slots, I suspect Hurt Locker and Serious Man would be the main contenders, and even then, neither totally guaranteed.

For me, the field of potential nominees from among films released already has quadrubled as the number of slots has doubled.

It's why the trade press has been so supportive - it means more advertising (they hope at least).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

I'm not even marginally concerned that films like Star Trek or Harry Potter make the list. As far as I'm concerned, an entertaining film with public appeal isnt necessarily BAD. Noone is saying that Paul Blart has a shot.

This particular Harry Potter, is the most mature one in the series so far; and the idea that Ned Flanders will be appalled doesnt bother me in the least.

I also believe that the expansion to 10 leaves openings for films that might otherwise be overlooked. Films such as Up, FLF, District 9, and so on.

It's going to be interesting, to see what they come up with. It's year one with this 10 films thing. It may or may not be prototypical.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed hard for foreign language films to make more incursions into the line up.

G'Day,
I would have hoped Duplicity be on the list. However I'm assuming it is a similar situation to State of Play where Universal arn't campaigning for it.

I agree it will take a few years to find out, however I feel that the films that will benifit most from the rule are Oscar bait films which got mixed or poor reviews. A Star Treck may slip in as well and a critically accalimed film like Up which would have struggled under the old system will get in as well. But I really see this as opening the floodgates for more Readers.

I think one of the greatest things the Oscars did in recent years was shut out Dramgirls from best picture (I hope Tom dosn't kick me off the site). Not because I hated the film (I thought it was average and probably better than Babel) but it was great to see the academy ignore the ET buzz and tabloid hype and just put films they thought were better at the top of their ballot. Had they had the 10 rule then they would have almost certainly made it in.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Noble,

It's possible that Universal will send out screeners of State of Play and Duplicity anyway even if they don't set up screenings (the cost of sending a screener for an already-in release screener, particularly when sent as part of a package of films, is only a few thousand dollars when limited to Academy members).

But without the ads, it's pretty much a lost cause short of a critics group win or SAG/GG nomination.

Why do I have horrible feeling that we're just going to get five more Best Picture nominees like "The Reader" and "Frost/Nixon?" Sure, Academy voters will probably throw a big budget, box-office hit in there like "Up," but overall I just have a hunch not much is going to change.

quote:

Originally posted by DoubleD:
Why do I have horrible feeling that we're just going to get five more Best Picture nominees like "The Reader" and "Frost/Nixon?" Sure, Academy voters will probably throw a big budget, box-office hit in there like "Up," but overall I just have a hunch not much is going to change.

I shuddered while reading your post. Mostly because every time I see "The Reader," I can't help but think of it as "The film that stole the nod from Batman and Pixar."

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:

quote:

Originally posted by DoubleD:
Why do I have horrible feeling that we're just going to get five more Best Picture nominees like "The Reader" and "Frost/Nixon?" Sure, Academy voters will probably throw a big budget, box-office hit in there like "Up," but overall I just have a hunch not much is going to change.

I shuddered while reading your post. Mostly because every time I see "The Reader," I can't help but think of it as "The film that stole the nod from Batman and Pixar."

UMM no larceny involved, apparently the votes just weren't there.

Besides, had "Batman" won it would forever be one of those "WTF Were They Thinking?!" wins.