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Gold Derby Columnist at TheEnvelope.com
Posted

OK, I've got this started. What do you think I'm overlooking or overestimating? PLEASE pipe in with your views! CLICK HERE!


http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_goldderby/2008/07/news-oscars-825.html

 
Posts: 8210 | Location: Box Seat, GoldDerby Track | Registered: May 18, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
No letter * No lovin'
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Overestimating:

Kate Beckinsale
Drew Barrymore


Emmys FYC:
Lead Actress Comedy
Please view the actual tape submissions and reward for quality...

...Not because of buzz
...Not because the nominee has 3 other Emmy noms
...Not 'cause the nominee is a writer so this would be great after the writer's strike
...Not because the nominee starred in a movie this spring.

Please view the actual tape and reward for QUALITY.

 
Posts: 939 | Registered: May 11, 2008Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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I think that's a good list. I like the way it includes some surprises, and doesn't just focus on a top five. Until we actually see the movies, we just don't know. I'd also agree with your suggestion that "Happy-Go-Lucky" might be more popular than expected.

- I might suggest that "The Road" could be included in the Best Picture category.
- Depending on how it turns out, "Skin" could have nominees in Lead and Supporting categories.
- I am assuming that "Cheri" with Michelle Pfeiffer is coming out next year, in 2009.
- It will be interesting to see what kind of performance Tommy Lee Jones gives when directed by Bertrand Tavernier (one of my favorite directors) in "In the Electric Mist". Kelly MacDonald, so effective in NCFOM might be equally effective support here as well.
- For performance, I'm also looking forward to Edward Norton in "Motherless Brooklyn". Like Robert Downey, one superhero/one serious.

Oh, I forgot - "Crossing Over", an ensemble piece (?) with Harrison Ford and Ashley Judd, might have some possibilities.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: MmeDeMontespan,
 
Posts: 1742 | Registered: November 17, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
do androids dream of electric sheep?
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If Eve is released in 2008, Vanessa Redgrave is usually fairly formidable.
Is Kiss-Ass the same as Kick-Ass?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: babypook,
 
Posts: 6271 | Location: canada | Registered: December 22, 2005Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Katy Perry!


Posted Hide Post
I think that you're overestimating Eric Bana, Ralph Feinnes, Jamie Foxx, Mark Ruffalo, Jonathan Rhys-Myers, Will Smith, Emily Blunt, Nicole Kidman, Keira Knightley, Melissa Leo, Julianne Moore, Meryl Streep (MM), and "Horton Hears a Who!".


Cirie is lovely
Amazingly amazing
She owns your dumb ass
 
Posts: 4440 | Location: Kirkland, WA | Registered: March 13, 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Gold Derby Columnist at TheEnvelope.com
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Lots of GREAT suggestions. I've heeded some. More! More!
 
Posts: 8210 | Location: Box Seat, GoldDerby Track | Registered: May 18, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
I´m just a girl in the world.
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Tom, apparently, "Cheri" is going to be a 2009 release.

And I would add "Ponyo on a Cliff" to the Best Animated Feature list of contenders, since this is a movie directed by Hayao Miyazaki.
 
Posts: 15590 | Location: Natal, RN, Brazil | Registered: October 21, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Go Cubs, Go!!!!
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No "WALL-E" for Best Picture?

I'm not saying it's a front-runner for a nod but it should be be in the early conversation.
 
Posts: 5247 | Location: Illinois | Registered: June 30, 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Check out my WEBSITE!
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quote:
Originally posted by FishBiscuit:
No "WALL-E" for Best Picture?

I'm not saying it's a front-runner for a nod but it should be be in the early conversation.


Here is the tricky thing about Wall*E yes it is great, but if it enters itself into the Best Picture race and misses out then it can't be nominated for Animated Feature. Do they really want that the happen? No Way.
 
Posts: 2245 | Registered: August 23, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Go Cubs, Go!!!!
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quote:
Originally posted by Awardshq:
quote:
Originally posted by FishBiscuit:
No "WALL-E" for Best Picture?

I'm not saying it's a front-runner for a nod but it should be be in the early conversation.


Here is the tricky thing about Wall*E yes it is great, but if it enters itself into the Best Picture race and misses out then it can't be nominated for Animated Feature. Do they really want that the happen? No Way.


Go big, or go home!!!!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: FishBiscuit,
 
Posts: 5247 | Location: Illinois | Registered: June 30, 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Not always right, but no fool either
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quote:
Here is the tricky thing about Wall*E yes it is great, but if it enters itself into the Best Picture race and misses out then it can't be nominated for Animated Feature. Do they really want that the happen? No Way.


Never heard that rule before.
Plus, films don't enter themselves for best picture.
They are either an eligible film or not based on being released in LA.
The animation committee then determines which feature releases meet the qualifications as an animated film.

But unless I totally missed something, an animated film that opens in LA is as eligible for best picture as a foreign language film or a documentary feature while still like those other two categories being eligible in the FL and Doc categories if they meet the separate eligibility rules there.

So yes, WALL-E should be on any best picture list, as well as animated feature.

Are you thinking perhaps of the GGs, which don't allow a film to be in more than one of their four best film categories? (Persepolis last year was eligible to be nominated in 3 Oscar categories - picture, foreign language film and animated feature).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,
 
Posts: 10048 | Registered: January 26, 2005Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
FYC: The Wire
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Overestimating Waltz with Bashir. I did not like this movie. It was okay...some parts were moving, however the animation was not good at parts. This is a serious movie that lost a lot of its emotion due to poor motion-capture of the facial expressions of its subjects (a la Tom Hanks in The Polar Express). This really bothered me and a lot of my friends who saw the film as well. This film is definitely no Persepolis!


Emmy FYC:
THE WIRE for Best Writing in a Drama Series.

Grammy FYC:
* Record of the Year - "Apologize" by Timbaland & OneRepublic
* Album of the Year - Rockferry by Duffy
* Best New Artist - Duffy & Adele
* Best Pop Male Vocal Performance: Jason Mraz - "I'm Yours"
* Best Pop Duo/Group Vocal Performance: Danity Kane - "Damaged"
* Best R&B Contemporary Album: Mariah Carey - E=MC2
* Best Short Form Music Video: Kanye West - "Flashing Lights"

Oscars FYC:
* BEST ACTRESS: Shohreh Aghdashloo - The Stoning of Soraya M.
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
* BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Rock Me Sexy Jesus", "Raped in the Face" from Hamlet 2
* BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Right to Dream" from Tennessee
 
Posts: 1363 | Registered: June 16, 2005Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Yeah, Wall-E should definitely be on the Best Picture list. By the end of the year, it will probably get steamrolled over by Oscar season, but for now, it's the only movie released this year that even warrants a Best Picture nod. That, and maybe The Visitor.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: tornall863,
 
Posts: 817 | Registered: February 22, 2005Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Hey Tom, you may want to look over at the Oscar Predictions thread. I've divided the main catagories by frontfunners, lead ponies, in the running, and dark horses based on buzz and likliness of getting nominated. So you may want to check out that list and also what other posters have to say about it. Also, you may want to look at some of the "Specualtion Series" threads that Dr. McPhearson, SkankyHo, and I have created.

P.S. - Cheri is officially a 2009 release...


2009 Oscars FYC:

Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Lead Actress - Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Supporting Actor - Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor
Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Doubt
Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor

Check out my blog - http://the-oscarologist.blogspot.com/
 
Posts: 2414 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Now that I am finally getting a good look at this list, you are...

...OVERESTIMATING:

ACTOR:
Tommy Lee Jones
Eric Bana (no buzz at all, some for McAdams though)
Harrison Ford (nah...)
Clint Eastwood (let him stay in the directing catagory this year for Changeling, his buzz for this movie went down hugely)
Hugh Jackman (i just can't see him get a nomination for this movie... it's too crowded right now with stronger contenders)
Joaquin Phoenix (nah...)
Derek Luke (nah...)

ACTRESS:
Kate Backinsale (i don't think so...)
Keira Knightly (she has more buzz for The Edge of Love)
Melissa Leo (I saw the trailer for this film and I can't understand why there is some buzz for her because her performance seems like it is for a daytime soap opera rather than an oscar-worthy movie... also, the movie may be too indie for oscar voters...)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Cheri is officially an '09 release...)
Kristin Scott Thomas (??)

...OVERLOOKING:

ACTOR:
Steve Coogan (Hamlet 2)
Sam Rockwell (Choke)
Alan Rickman (Bottle Shock)
Lee Pace (The Fall)

ACTRESS:
Summer Bishil (Towelhead)
Helen Hunt (Then She Found Me)
Sophie Okonedo (Skin)
Ellen Page (The Tracey Fragments)
Amanda Seyfried (Mamma Mia)


2009 Oscars FYC:

Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Lead Actress - Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Supporting Actor - Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor
Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Doubt
Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor

Check out my blog - http://the-oscarologist.blogspot.com/
 
Posts: 2414 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by bocaboy7:
Now that I am finally getting a good look at this list, you are...

...OVERESTIMATING:

ACTOR:
Tommy Lee Jones
Eric Bana (no buzz at all, some for McAdams though)
Harrison Ford (nah...)
Clint Eastwood (let him stay in the directing catagory this year for Changeling, his buzz for this movie went down hugely)
Hugh Jackman (i just can't see him get a nomination for this movie... it's too crowded right now with stronger contenders)
Joaquin Phoenix (nah...)
Derek Luke (nah...)

ACTRESS:
Kate Backinsale (i don't think so...)
Keira Knightly (she has more buzz for The Edge of Love)
Melissa Leo (I saw the trailer for this film and I can't understand why there is some buzz for her because her performance seems like it is for a daytime soap opera rather than an oscar-worthy movie... also, the movie may be too indie for oscar voters...)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Cheri is officially an '09 release...)
Kristin Scott Thomas (??)

...OVERLOOKING:

ACTOR:
Steve Coogan (Hamlet 2)
Sam Rockwell (Choke)
Alan Rickman (Bottle Shock)
Lee Pace (The Fall)

ACTRESS:
Summer Bishil (Towelhead)
Helen Hunt (Then She Found Me)
Sophie Okonedo (Skin)
Ellen Page (The Tracey Fragments)
Amanda Seyfried (Mamma Mia)


I agree with some of your thoughts, but Amanda Seyfried will never get in for Mamma Mia!
 
Posts: 2245 | Registered: August 23, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Awardshq:
quote:
Originally posted by bocaboy7:
Now that I am finally getting a good look at this list, you are...

...OVERESTIMATING:

ACTOR:
Tommy Lee Jones
Eric Bana (no buzz at all, some for McAdams though)
Harrison Ford (nah...)
Clint Eastwood (let him stay in the directing catagory this year for Changeling, his buzz for this movie went down hugely)
Hugh Jackman (i just can't see him get a nomination for this movie... it's too crowded right now with stronger contenders)
Joaquin Phoenix (nah...)
Derek Luke (nah...)

ACTRESS:
Kate Backinsale (i don't think so...)
Keira Knightly (she has more buzz for The Edge of Love)
Melissa Leo (I saw the trailer for this film and I can't understand why there is some buzz for her because her performance seems like it is for a daytime soap opera rather than an oscar-worthy movie... also, the movie may be too indie for oscar voters...)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Cheri is officially an '09 release...)
Kristin Scott Thomas (??)

...OVERLOOKING:

ACTOR:
Steve Coogan (Hamlet 2)
Sam Rockwell (Choke)
Alan Rickman (Bottle Shock)
Lee Pace (The Fall)

ACTRESS:
Summer Bishil (Towelhead)
Helen Hunt (Then She Found Me)
Sophie Okonedo (Skin)
Ellen Page (The Tracey Fragments)
Amanda Seyfried (Mamma Mia)


I agree with some of your thoughts, but Amanda Seyfried will never get in for Mamma Mia!


Yeah duh, I realize that, but I just mentioned her name because she is becoming more well-known now, and Mamma Mia itself is getting buzz oscar and box office wise, and Seyfried is a huge contender for a golden globe nomination right along side of her costar Meryl Streep.


2009 Oscars FYC:

Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Lead Actress - Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Supporting Actor - Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor
Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Doubt
Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor

Check out my blog - http://the-oscarologist.blogspot.com/
 
Posts: 2414 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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^^^
Well Tom is trying to get a list of OSCAR contenders, and Amanda is not one of those.
 
Posts: 2245 | Registered: August 23, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by Awardshq:
^^^
Well Tom is trying to get a list of OSCAR contenders, and Amanda is not one of those.


I don't think Kate Beckinsale is either... I think Amanda Seyfried would have a much higher chance than her. Look I'm not saying that she will get a nomination, I'm only saying that she has a chance, not a huge one, of course Meryl Streep takes that honor from her, but she has a chance and definetly should get recognized, and it seems as if the Golden Globes will possibly, most likely reward her with a nomination along with Meryl Streep for Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical for Mamma Mia.


2009 Oscars FYC:

Lead Actor - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Lead Actress - Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Supporting Actor - Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor
Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Doubt
Original Screenplay - Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor

Check out my blog - http://the-oscarologist.blogspot.com/
 
Posts: 2414 | Location: Why Do You Want To Know? | Registered: November 21, 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Check out my WEBSITE!
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I just saw the movie and Amanda is great, but no where near Oscar worthy. Meryl of course steals the movie. But Amanda is great and I would fully support a nomination at the Globes, but she shouldn't be on any long lists for the Oscars.
 
Posts: 2245 | Registered: August 23, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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