I might as well make another one of these for the time between now and the big Oscar fests (Venice & Toronto). Boomer, if you could sticky this, that'd be great. Put all your predictions and thoughts regarding films' Oscar chances here.

Updated derby on response.

A guide:

FRONTRUNNERS - I'd feel very comfortable predicting any film or performer on this tier. I'm pretty sure that the films/performances on this tier will end up being part of the awards race come November/December/January.

IN THE RUNNING - Some of these may end up racking up awards and I would feel relatively comfortable predicting any of the films or performers on this tier.

LONGSHOTS - These are films and performers that don't necessarily have a huge chance at getting an Oscar nomination, but they definitely could be thrown back into the race with a Globe/Sag/BFCA nom or a critics' win. Don't count them out, but predict them at your own peril!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

Best Picture

FRONTRUNNERS
"Amelia"
"Bright Star"
"An Education"
"Invictus"
"The Lovely Bones"
"Nine"
"Precious"
"Public Enemies"
"The Road"
"Shutter Island"

IN THE RUNNING
"Avatar"
"Cheri"
"Funny People"
"Green Zone"
"The Hurt Locker"
"The Informant"
"The Last Station"
"Up"
"Where the Wild Things Are"

LONGSHOTS
"Agora"
"Biutiful"
"Broken Embraces"
"Crazy Heart"
"Creation"
"Desert Flower"
"Everybody's Fine"
"Fish Tank"
"Glorious 39"
"Ondine"
"A Serious Man"
"The Tempest"
"That Evening Sun"
"Vincere"
"The White Ribbon"

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Best Actor

FRONTRUNNERS
Matt Damon, in "Green Zone"
Matt Damon, in "The Informant"
Daniel Day-Lewis, in "Nine"
Johnny Depp, in "Public Enemies"
Leonardo DiCaprio, in "Shutter Island"
Morgan Freeman, in "Invictus"
Hal Holbrook, in "That Evening Sun"
Viggo Mortensen, in "The Road"
Christopher Plummer, in "The Last Station"
Michael Stuhlbarg, in "A Serious Man"

IN THE RUNNING
Paul Bettany, in "Creation"
Jeff Bridges, in "Crazy Heart"
Jim Carrey, in "I Love You Phillip Morris"
Alden Ehrenreich, in "Tetro"
Colin Farrell, in "Ondine"
Jeremy Renner, in "The Hurt Locker"
Sam Rockwell, in "Moon"
Adam Sandler, in "Funny People"
Mark Wahlberg, in "The Lovely Bones"
Ben Whishaw, in "Bright Star"

LONGSHOTS
Javier Bardem, in "Biutiful"
George Clooney, in "Men Who Stare At Goats"
George Clooney, in "Up in the Air"
Hugh Dancy, in "Adam"
Robert De Niro, in "Everybody's Fine"
Benicio Del Toro, in "The Wolf Man"
Ryan Gosling, in "All Good Things"
Jake Gyllenhaal, in "Brothers"
Ethan Hawke, in "Brooklyn's Finest"
Sotigui Kouyate, in "London River"
John Malkovich, in "Disgrace"
Patton Oswalt, in "Big Fan"
Joe Pesci, in "Love Ranch"
Peter Sarsgaard, in "An Education"

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Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS
Abbie Cornish, in "Bright Star"
Helen Mirren, in "The Tempest"
Carey Mulligan, in "An Education"
Michelle Pfeiffer, in "Cheri"
Saoirse Ronan, in "The Lovely Bones"
Gabourey Sidibe, in "Precious"
Meryl Streep, in "Julie & Julia"
Hilary Swank, in "Amelia"
Rachel Weisz, in "The Lovely Bones"

IN THE RUNNING
Shohreh Aghdashloo, in "The Stoning of Soraya M."
Halle Berry, in "Frankie and Alice"
Jennifer Connelly, in "Creation"
Marion Cotillard, in "Nine"
Penelope Cruz, in "Broken Embraces"
Romola Garai, in "Glorious 39"
Giovanna Mezzogiorno, in "Vincere"
Helen Mirren, in "The Last Station"
Tilda Swinton, in "Julia"
Audrey Tautou, in "Coco Before Chanel"
Emily Watson, in "Within the Whirlwind"
Renee Zellweger, in "My Own Love Song"

LONGSHOTS
Amy Adams, in "Julie & Julia"
Amy Adams, in "Sunshine Cleaning"
Isabelle Adjani, in "Skirt Day"
Brenda Blethyn, in "London River"
Emily Blunt, in "The Young Victoria"
Eva Green, in "Cracks"
Katie Jarvis, in "Fish Tank"
Liya Kebede, in "Desert Flower"
Helen Mirren, in "Love Ranch"
Natalie Portman, in "Brothers"
Natalie Portman, in "Love & Other Impossible Pursuits"
Kelly Reilly, in "Triage"
Rachel Weisz, in "Agora"
Evan Rachel Wood, in "Whatever Works"
Renee Zellweger, in "My One and Only"

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Best Supporting Actor

FRONTRUNNERS
Billy Crudup, in "Public Enemies"
Matt Damon, in "Invictus"
Brendan Gleeson, in "Green Zone"
Ewan McGregor, in "Amelia"
Alfred Molina, in "An Education"
Mark Ruffalo, in "Shutter Island"
Kodi Smit-McPhee, in "The Road"
Stanley Tucci, in "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, in "Inglourious Basterds"

IN THE RUNNING
Christian Bale, in "Public Enemies"
Colin Farrell, in "Crazy Heart"
Vincent Gallo, in "Tetro"
Richard Gere, in "Amelia"
Jason Isaacs, in "Green Zone"
Richard Kind, in "A Serious Man"
Ben Kingsley, in "Shutter Island"
Tobey Maguire, in "Brothers"
James McAvoy, in "The Last Station"
Stephen Rea, in "Ondine"
Paul Schneider, in "Bright Star"

LONGSHOTS
Scott Bakula, in "The Informant"
Eric Bana, in "Funny People"
Robert Duvall, in "Crazy Heart"
Robert Duvall, in "The Road"
Colin Farrell, in "Triage"
Ray McKinnon, in "That Evening Sun"
Bill Nighy, in "Glorious 39"
Patton Oswalt, in "The Informant"
Liev Schreiber, in "Taking Woodstock"
Frank Welker, in "The Informant"
Ben Whishaw, in "The Tempest"
Forest Whitaker, in "My Own Love Song"
Max von Sydow, in "Shutter Island"

Best Supporting Actress

FRONTRUNNERS
Kathy Bates, in "Cheri"
Patricia Clarkson, in "Whatever Works"
Marion Cotillard, in "Public Enemies"
Penelope Cruz, in "Nine"
Judi Dench, in "Nine"
Mo'Nique, in "Precious"
Michelle Williams, in "Shutter Island"

IN THE RUNNING
Alicja Bachleda-Curus, in "Ondine"
Kim Basinger, in "The Burning Plain"
Carolyn Dando, in "The Lovely Bones"
Sophia Loren, in "Nine"
Virginia Madsen, in "Amelia"
Leslie Mann, in "Funny People"
Rose McIver, in "The Lovely Bones"
Emily Mortimer, in "Shutter Island"
Amy Ryan, in "Green Zone"
Susan Sarandon, in "The Lovely Bones"
Charlize Theron, in "The Road"
Maribel Verdu, in "Tetro"
Betty White, in "The Proposal"

LONGSHOTS
Mariah Carey, in "Precious"
Julie Christie, in "Glorious 39"
Anne-Marie Duff, in "The Last Station"
Vera Farmiga, in "Up in the Air"
Kerry Fox, in "Bright Star"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, in "Crazy Heart"
Sally Hawkins, in "Desert Flower"
Bonnie Henna, in "Invictus"
Allison Janney, in "Away We Go"
Nicole Kidman, in "Nine"
Lisa Kudrow, in "Love & Other Impossible Pursuits"
Jennifer Lawrence, in "The Burning Plain"
Sari Lennick, in "A Serious Man"
Melanie Lynskey, in "The Informant"
Carrie Preston, in "That Evening Sun"
Scout Taylor-Compton, in "Love Ranch"
Emma Thompson, in "An Education"
Olivia Williams, in "An Education"
Madeline Zima, in "My Own Love Song"

My Oscar Predictions. Taking some risks with the That Evening Sun mentions, but its all good fun.

BEST PICTURE:
"Amelia" - Lydia Dean Pilcher; Kevin Hyman; Ted Waitt
"Bright Star" - Jane Campion; Jan Chapman; Caroline Hewitt
"An Education" - Finola Dwyer; Amanda Posey
"Invictus" - Clint Eastwood; Robert Lorenz; Mace Neufeld
"The Lovely Bones" - Carolynne Cunningham; Peter Jackson; Fran Walsh
"Nine" - John DeLuca; Rob Marshall; Marc E. Platt
"Precious" - Lee Daniels; Gary Magness; Sarah Siegel-Magness
"Public Enemies" - Michael Mann; Kevin Misher
*"The Road" - Paula Mae Schwartz; Steve Schwartz; Nick Wechsler
"Shutter Island" - Mike Medavoy; Arnold Messer; Martin Scorsese

BEST DIRECTOR:
Paul Greengrass, for "Green Zone"
Michael Haneke, for "The White Ribbon"
*John Hillcoat, for "The Road"
Peter Jackson, for "The Lovely Bones"
Michael Mann, for "Public Enemies"

BEST ACTOR:
Matt Damon, in "Green Zone"
*Johnny Depp, in "Public Enemies"
Morgan Freeman, in "Invictus"
Hal Holbrook, in "That Evening Sun"
Viggo Mortensen, in "The Road"

BEST ACTRESS:
Abbie Cornish, in "Bright Star"
*Carey Mulligan, in "An Education"
Saoirse Ronan, in "The Lovely Bones"
Gabourey Sidibe, in "Precious"
Meryl Streep, in "Julie & Julia"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Billy Crudup, in "Public Enemies"
Matt Damon, in "Invictus"
Kodi Smit-McPhee, in "The Road"
*Stanley Tucci, in "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, in "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Kathy Bates, in "Chéri"
Patricia Clarkson, in "Whatever Works"
Marion Cotillard, in "Public Enemies"
Judi Dench, in "Nine"
*Mo'Nique, in "Precious"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
"Green Zone" - Brian Helgeland
"The Lovely Bones" - Philippa Boyens; Peter Jackson; Fran Walsh
*"Precious" - Damien Paul
"Public Enemies" - Ronan Bennett; Ann Biderman; Michael Mann
"The Road" - Joe Penhall

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
*"An Education" - Nick Hornby
"Funny People" - Judd Apatow
"The Hurt Locker" - Mark Boal
"Up" - Bob Peterson
"The White Ribbon" - Michael Haneke

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

and my Globe predictions. Six nominees for each, so one will act as a wildcard.

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA:
"Invictus"
"The Lovely Bones"
*"Precious"
"Public Enemies"
"The Road"
"Shutter Island"

BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY:
"An Education"
"Cheri"
"Funny People"
"Julie & Julia"
*"Nine"
"Whatever Works"

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA:
Matt Damon, in "The Informant"
Johnny Depp, in "Public Enemies"
Leonardo DiCaprio, in "Shutter Island"
*Morgan Freeman, in "Invictus"
Hal Holbrook, in "That Evening Sun"
Viggo Mortensen, in "The Road"

BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY:
Sacha Baron Cohen, in "Brüno"
Jim Carrey, in "I Love You Phillip Morris"
George Clooney, in "Up in the Air"
Daniel Day-Lewis, in "Nine"
*Adam Sandler, in "Funny People"
Michael Stuhlbarg, in "A Serious Man"

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA:
Abbie Cornish, in "Bright Star"
Saoirse Ronan, in "The Lovely Bones"
*Gabourey Sidibe, in "Precious"
Hilary Swank, in "Amelia"
Tilda Swinton, in "Julia"
Rachel Weisz, in "The Lovely Bones"

BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY:
Amy Adams, in "Sunshine Cleaning"
Sandra Bullock, in "The Proposal"
Marion Cotillard, in "Nine"
Carey Mulligan, in "An Education"
Michelle Pfeiffer, in "Chéri"
*Meryl Streep, in "Julie & Julia"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
*Billy Crudup, in "Public Enemies"
Matt Damon, in "Invictus"
Mark Ruffalo, in "Shutter Island"
Kodi Smit-McPhee, in "The Road"
Stanley Tucci, in "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, in "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Kathy Bates, in "Chéri"
Marion Cotillard, in "Public Enemies"
Penélope Cruz, in "Nine"
Judi Dench, in "Nine"
Leslie Mann, in "Funny People"
*Mo'Nique, in "Precious"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: puxzkkx,

My winner predictions for the Oscars & Globes:

Oscars:
Best Picture - The Road
Best Director - The Road
Best Actor - Johnny Depp
Best Actress - Carey Mulligan
Best Supporting Actor - Stanley Tucci
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique
Best A. Screenplay - Precious
Best O. Screenplay - An Education

Globes:
Best Picture D. - Public Enemies
Best Picture MC. - Nine
Best Director - IDC
Best Screenplay - IDC
Best Actor D. - Morgan Freeman
Best Actor MC. - Adam Sandler
Best Actress D. - Gabourey Sidibe
Best Actress MC. - Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor - Billy Crudup
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique

Thanks for the sticky, Boomer!

The Road??

Take that bocaboy! Lol.

Thanks puxzkkx for creating a new predictions thread! Here are my predictions. Comments are greatly appreciated!

Best Film

An Education (Sony Pictures Classics)
(500) Days of Summer (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Invictus (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Nine (The Weinstein Company)
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire (Lionsgate)

Next in Line: Shutter Island (Paramount Pictures), The Lovely Bones (Paramount Pictures), Amelia (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Where the Wild Things Are (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Best Director

Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are
Rob Marshall, Nine
Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island

Next in Line: James Cameron, Avatar, Lone Scherfig, An Education, Marc Webb, (500) Days of Summer, Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Informant
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Next in Line: Johnny Depp, Public Enemies, Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island, Hugh Dancy, Adam

Best Actress

Geena Davis, Accidents Happen
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank, Amelia

Next in Line: Marion Cotillard, Nine, Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri, Abbie Cornish, Bright Star, Tilda Swinton, Julia

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Next in Line: James McAvoy, The Last Station, Paul Schneider, Bright Star, Peter Sarsgaard, An Education

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Betty White, The Proposal

Next in Line: Sofia Vassilieva, My Sister’s Keeper, Amy Adams, Julie & Julia, Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies, Kathy Bates, Cheri, Sophia Loren, Nine, Emma Thompson, An Education, Sigourney Weaver, Avatar

Best Original Screenplay

Jane Champion, Bright Star
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, A Serious Man
Pete Docter & Bob Peterson, Up
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Next in Line: Woody Allen, Whatever Works, Brian Carbee, Accidents Happen, Dave Eggers & Vendela Vida, Away We Go, Pedro Almodóvar, Broken Embraces

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nick Hornby, An Education
Laeta Kalogridis, Shutter Island
Anthony Minghella & Michael Tolkin, Nine
Damien Paul, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Anthony Peckham, Invictus

Next in Line: Tucker Max & Nils Parker, I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, & Fran Walsh, The Lovely Bones, Ronald Bass, Amelia, Dave Eggers & Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Documentary Feature

Afghan Star
Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country
Defamation
Outrage
Yoo-Hoo, Mrs. Goldberg

Best Foreign Language Film

A Prophet (France)
I Killed My Mother (Canada)
Rudo y Cursi (Mexico)
Samson & Delilah (Australia)
The White Ribbon (Austria)

quote:

Originally posted by babypook:
The Road??

Take that bocaboy! Lol.

Oh babypook how you make me laugh! I just saw your post now! A little late, I know! LOL. Ya know what... it's his predictions and I respect that! Who am I to critize his choices? It's early in the game and if you notice, our predixs are pretty different... Maybe that's a good thing, maybe it's not, but that's what I think makes this race so exciting!

Pardon me for asking, but why is The Road a controversial choice?

quote:

Originally posted by puxzkkx:
Pardon me for asking, but why is The Road a controversial choice?

Because when the trailer came out a few months ago, I was very verbal with how I thought The Road seemed like an anti-Oscar-worthy film and more like films like I Am Legend and The Day After Tomorrow. You can see all my comments about it somewhere in the trailers thread...

Well, regardless of "genre" arguments I think it'll be a FAR better film than "I Am Legend" and "The Day After Tomorrow", and it is based on a novel by an author who has had an adaptation of his works win Best Picture.

By the way, I found this out - if Betty White is nominated this year, it'll make her the oldest nominee ever. Because Jackie Cooper, the youngest nominee ever (for "Skippy") was born in 1922 and so was White, it would mean that both the youngest nominee ever and the oldest nominee ever were born in the same year!

quote:

Originally posted by puxzkkx:
Well, regardless of "genre" arguments I think it'll be a FAR better film than "I Am Legend" and "The Day After Tomorrow", and it is based on a novel by an author who has had an adaptation of his works win Best Picture.

It probably will be better than those films, I just personally can't see this film being nominated for anything in the major categories other than the technicals really... Maybe Adapted Screenplay since it's a Cormac McCarthy book... The visual effects look amazing though when I saw the trailer. Predict The Road if you want for Best Picture, I mean, who am I to tell you that you can't predict it? I'm just giving my opinion of what I think about it...

quote:

Originally posted by bocaboy7:

quote:

Originally posted by puxzkkx:
Well, regardless of "genre" arguments I think it'll be a FAR better film than "I Am Legend" and "The Day After Tomorrow", and it is based on a novel by an author who has had an adaptation of his works win Best Picture.

It probably will be better than those films, I just personally can't see this film being nominated for anything in the major categories other than the technicals really... Maybe Adapted Screenplay since it's a Cormac McCarthy book... The visual effects look amazing though when I saw the trailer. Predict The Road if you want for Best Picture, I mean, who am I to tell you that you can't predict it? I'm just giving my opinion of what I think about it...

Why is it a controversial choice? I have never heard anyone but you describe it that way. Controversial suggests strong feelings by a lot of people against it. It will be very violent and dark, if it follows the book, but it is a film adaptation of a Pulitzer prize winning book featuring an Oscar nominee in the lead, Viggo Mortenson, and an Oscar winner in a small but important role, Charlize Theron, and that seems like Oscar stuff.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

In theory The Road certainly has all the trappings of a Best Picture nominee, more akin to No Country for Old Men than the overrated comedy of coinkydinks Slumdog Millionaire...

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:

quote:

Originally posted by bocaboy7:

quote:

Originally posted by puxzkkx:
Well, regardless of "genre" arguments I think it'll be a FAR better film than "I Am Legend" and "The Day After Tomorrow", and it is based on a novel by an author who has had an adaptation of his works win Best Picture.

It probably will be better than those films, I just personally can't see this film being nominated for anything in the major categories other than the technicals really... Maybe Adapted Screenplay since it's a Cormac McCarthy book... The visual effects look amazing though when I saw the trailer. Predict The Road if you want for Best Picture, I mean, who am I to tell you that you can't predict it? I'm just giving my opinion of what I think about it...

Why is it a controversial choice? I have never heard anyone but you describe it that way. Controversial suggests strong feelings by a lot of people against it. It will be very violent and dark, if it follows the book, but it is a film adaptation of a Pulitzer prize winning book featuring an Oscar nominee in the lead, Viggo Mortenson, and an Oscar winner in a small but important role, Charlize Theron, and that seems like Oscar stuff.

Maybe it's just me, but imo, I just wasn't impressed by the trailer. To me, it just came across as another one of those end-of-the-world catastrophe action flicks (that just so happened to be based off of a Cormac McCarthy book...). It's like War of the Worlds I think... Wells, Spielberg, Cruise, etc...

As long as people are throwing out some early predictions:

Best Picture:
1) "Invictus"***
2) "Precious"
3) "Nine"
4) "The Lovely Bones"
5) "Bright Star"

Best Actor:
1) Morgan Freeman- "Invictus"***
2) Viggo Mortenson- "The Road"
3) Jim Carrey- "I Love You Phillip Morris"
4) Matt Damon- "The Informant"
5) Christopher Plummer- "The Last Station"

Best Actress:
1) Michelle Pfeiffer- "Cheri"***
2) Abbie Cornish- "Bright Star"
3) Carey Mulligan- "An Education"
4) Hilary Swank- "Amelia"
5) Meryl Streep- "Julie & Julia"

Best Supporting Actor:
1) Matt Damon- "Invictus"***
2) Stanley Tucci- "The Lovely Bones"
3) Christoph Waltz- "Inglorious Basterds"
4) Kodi Smit-McPhee- "The Road"
5) Ewan McGregor- "I Love You Phillip Morris"

Best Supporting Actress:
1) Penelope Cruz- "Nine"
2) Judi Dench- "Nine"
3) Mo'Nique- "Precious"***
4) Kathy Bates- "Cheri"
5) Susan Sarandon- "The Lovely Bones"

Best Director:
1) Clint Eastwood- "Invictus"
2) John Hillcoat- "The Road"
3) Peter Jackson- "The Lovely Bones"
4) Jane Campion- "Bright Star"***
5) Rob Marshall- "Nine"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,