quote:

In fact until she gave a horrible speech at the BFCA Anne Hathaway was a favored a little to win.

More members of Gold Derby (maybe 30) watch the BFCA than do Academy members except those few in attendance. Hathaway's speech made exactly zero difference last year. These awards have no impact.

<<Even when there are veteran actresses, as beloved as they are, if someone who is virtually unknown manages to make a big enough impact, anything is possible>>

20 of the last 22 best actress winners have been known established actresses (if I include Cotillard and Swank as unknowns). So that point is dubious. (Among supporting actresses, for the last couple decades, only Paquin and Hudson apply. So little evidence there either.

And my point, again, is that if your lineup - 4 ingenues up against Streep - happens, Streep will probably win with as little as 25% of the vote. She probably got that much for her lousy performance last year.

quote:

Originally posted by Tye-Grr:
Mulligan is getting raves from what I can tell,

Could you provide links to all these rave reviews, please?

Ironically, I am the only one who has provided the very few that exist (which for the most part aren't reviews, but reports from Sundance).

From people who have any influence and established credibility, for the most part, they don't exist. That's why we don't get the links.

True csloan87, but all I'm trying to say is that Meryl is indeed overdue for another Oscar, and this could do it, but if someone like Carey Mulligan gets on one of those waves of buzz, it could still crush her in the end. I almost thought she was a lock for a win last year for 'Doubt', especially after they picked Winslet's performance in 'The Reader' over her performance in 'Revolutionary Road'. My only underdog choice was Anne Hathaway for 'Rachel Getting Married' who was starting to lose buzz, but in the end my girl Kate still got it.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Ironically, I am the only one who has provided the very few that exist (which for the most part aren't reviews, but reports from Sundance).

From people who have any influence and established credibility, for the most part, they don't exist. That's why we don't get the links.

Sorry if I made it seem as though I've read reviews myself, I've just heard from other people, on other sites, and following festival chatter. Hence the, "from what I can tell" portion of my post.

quote:

Sorry if I made it seem as though I've read reviews myself, I've just heard from other people, on other sites, and following festival chatter. Hence the, "from what I can tell" portion of my post.

Bingo.
And at least some of this has probably been helped by moles sent to infiltrate some of these sites by publicists.
I'm sure at other sites people are using all the predictions of her winning here as evidence of how strong she is.
This is why (I normally don't bother looking at this thread this early because I know it's silly to predict in August.) I've been making a big case over all the hype - anything more than that she is a contender for a nomination is totally unsubstantiated at this point.

It's great that people speculate, and fun to make predictions. But quite a few people doing so wrap their predictions as though there is near-certainity and vast amounts of evidence for what they are saying, when in reality, it doesn't exist. And when they are asked for evidence, we usually don't get any concrete response.

Fortunately this stuff doesn't matter, but it's similar to all the crazies out there who have heard that the health care bill includes a death panel, and cite all the people they've heard it from as truth.

Me, I prefer to live in a reality based world.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:

quote:

Sorry if I made it seem as though I've read reviews myself, I've just heard from other people, on other sites, and following festival chatter. Hence the, "from what I can tell" portion of my post.

Bingo.
And at least some of this has probably been helped by moles sent to infiltrate some of these sites by publicists.
I'm sure at other sites people are using all the predictions of her winning here as evidence of how strong she is.
This is why (I normally don't bother looking at this thread this early because I know it's silly to predict in August.) I've been making a big case over all the hype - anything more than that she is a contender for a nomination is totally unsubstantiated at this point.

It's great that people speculate, and fun to make predictions. But quite a few people doing so wrap their predictions as though there is near-certainity and vast amounts of evidence for what they are saying, when in reality, it doesn't exist. And when they are asked for evidence, we usually don't get any concrete response.

Oh, I completely agree that it's silly to try to call a clear winner this early. It's all in good fun. I personally won't come on here giving my raves until I've seen the films/performances myself, and with my own opinion having had something to base it on. In the case of just throwing winners out there with reckless abandon, I'd start my campaign for Saoirse Ronan, haha! I don't know exactly what it is, but she has this presence...

And as for my earlier posts about Mulligan, I was only trying to make a point that Streep isn't necessarily the top front-runner in the Lead Actress race. Maybe presently, but until we do get to see these other performances ourselves, we won't know for sure. I personally hope to see Rachel Weisz give another performance worthy of returning to the Oscars as a nominee.

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I just don't think because her competition might be unknown actresses make her the fron-runner. We could all talk about Oscar history all day,but as I've said before if those actresses are in better films and give good preformances one will beat her. As much as voters like Streep and her film, some of the other films seem right up their alley too since An Education and Bright Star are period pieces. I just don't see it as so impossible as others.

I know we have to wait to see the films and many reviews don't exist of some of the films,i just don't think Meryl Streep is impossible to beat whomever her competition is.

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She is only the front-runner for now because she is the only performer who has been vetted. The others haven't been reviewed fully or at all, and their films haven't opened.

Again, I'm just saying if all the unknown ingenues get great reviews and are in hot movies, then likely Streep, if she's against the other four, wins, because none of the other four would break through and top Streep's likely easy 25-30% of the vote.

On nomination morning, Streep's getting nominated yet again, breaking her own record, will be a bigger story than any of her competitors most likely. People know she contended last year. She got great reviews, better than most best actress winners (only Mirren in recent years among the winners had the near totality of raves she did.)

Streep against one unknown actress in a breakout role/hit movie/other awards - close race

Streep against many unknowns, all quite good - probably easy win for her.

Just guess work, but based on history. Fortunately, things will change many, many times in the next few months.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

As someone just said this is all in good fun and were just guessing. This will become clearer in the next three months.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
She is only the front-runner for now because she is the only performer who has been vetted. The others haven't been reviewed fully or at all, and their films haven't opened.

Again, I'm just saying if all the unknown ingenues get great reviews and are in hot movies, then likely Streep, if she's against the other four, wins, because none of the other four would break through and top Streep's likely easy 25-30% of the vote.

On nomination morning, Streep's getting nominated yet again, breaking her own record, will be a bigger story than any of her competitors most likely. People know she contended last year. She got great reviews, better than most best actress winners (only Mirren in recent years among the winners had the near totality of raves she did.)

Streep against one unknown actress in a breakout role/hit movie/other awards - close race

Streep against many unknowns, all quite good - probably easy win for her.

Just guess work, but based on history. Fortunately, things will change many, many times in the next few months.

Vote splitting is always a tricky bugger... If there are indeed raves for multiple breakout performances by new actresses, I can see voters going with someone they do know, and who they know has deserved to win many times over.

quote:

Originally posted by Vi:
As someone just said this is all in good fun and were just guessing. This will become clearer in the next three months.

Yes, and I can't wait! I'm looking very forward to seeing 'The Lovely Bones', 'Precious', 'An Education', 'Bright Star', 'Where The Wild Things Are', 'Invictus', 'Shutter Island', and many more for myself. I want to be blown away.

quote:

On nomination morning, Streep's getting nominated yet again, breaking her own record, will be a bigger story than any of her competitors most likely. People know she contended last year. She got great reviews, better than most best actress winners (only Mirren in recent years among the winners had the near totality of raves she did.)

I've been meaning to mention this. This is, perhaps, Streep's most acclaimed performance this decade, no? And Streep's reviews are that of a winner's. Like you said, Mirren and maybe also Theron have gotten similiar raves.

And Sony Pictures and Scott Rudin are going to make damn sure every Academy knows this and likely will spend more money on her campaign than any of the other nominees will (plus the likely TV campaign for the Xmas-timed DVD release).

Sony Pictures Classics has a lot to campaign for this year...and they are usually cheap...I just wanted throw that out there.

quote:

On nomination morning, Streep's getting nominated yet again, breaking her own record, will be a bigger story than any of her competitors most likely. People know she contended last year.

I think these 2 points, more than the others are enough ammunition to make Streep's case.

Don't forget if she goes lead, it will give her her 13th lead nod, thus breaking the pesky Hepburn record. She also was likely the close runner up last year. Hepburn will have to rise from the dead to prevent Streep winning on Oscar night.

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Yeah, that got mentioned, as well as that internally within Sony corporately the emphasis is going to be for Julie and Julia and Streep unless big Sony has another contender down the road.

What was Sony's last Best Picture nominee? As Good As It Gets? That's sad.

Again, that's why if they have a chance to ride a film into nominations and wins, couple with this being Scott Rudin's main and maybe only contender this year, that J&J is going to an ominpresent force in this year's campaiging.