Well because of that little change i can't wait for (with sarcastic grin)
i have made my 10 Best Picture Nominees

Best Picture:
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
Precious: Based on the novel "Push" by Sapphire
Amelia
Up
(500)Days of Summer
Invictus
An Education

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Psychadelicboy33,

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Originally posted by bocaboy7:
1.

Back at ya.

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2. That was a great part! Loved that in the trailer! There are some random clips on different websites, and seriously, they are even more fun to watch than the trailer! Check out the clips for the IKEA Trip scene and the Expectations vs. Reality scene! The film seems so creative and fun! No wonder why this film has been captivating audiences at all the festivals!

Again, I'm going with Original Screenplay first. I did like the calm collected voiceover for the trailer, and love when that kind of thing is used to effect in a film. Let's hope its in the actual film.

"Boy loves girl. Boy falls in love. Girl, not so much." - Not an actual quote, but it gets across the point.

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3. I agree with Avatar going so many ways right now too. I really would like to stick in Wild Things in over Bright Star, but again, I mentioned my reasons for keeping Bright Star in above...

4. Well considering Avatar is being considered "groundbreaking" for the way that it's being shot and made, I'm pretty sure that says it all. Star Trek will most likely be a nominee too, probably along with either Transformers and/or The Road.

I was being sarcastic abotu Star Trek. If anything, I think that Avatar will win visually, and Trek will dominate in sound.

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5. How about this, I'll wait and see with The Informant! It does seem interesting, I just want to wait until we see a trailer...

*sheathes sword* I look forward to our next encounter.

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5 1/2. It's not even known yet if Green Zone is even going to be released this year or next year... If they do hold it off, a la The Road, it would be (I think) mainly because of Damon's other roles, this way there's no confliction. I'm sure there would be many other reasons, but I'm pretty sure the studios want to avoid any vote-splitting at possible!

I have a DiCaprio Departed-Blood Diamond feel to this, like action role will surpass thriller one. Hmm.

1.

2. That's fine, just keep an eye out on it! Remember, it's a Fox Searchlight pic, so that will definitely help a lot! And we know how those films have fared at the Oscars recently!

3/4. I think you are right about that!

5. I look forward to it as well!

5 1/2. It is very similar to DiCaprio in 06-07! If I were head of the studio and could make the decision, I would push back Green Zone... This way the option of vote splitting won't get in the way. Damon has a very good chance at getting double-nominated next year - Lead with The Informant and Supporting with Invictus. If Green Zone will end up being released this year, I think it will only screw that up, especially for Lead Actor...

This message has been edited. Last edited by: bocaboy7,

Have added "The Hurt Locker" to my best picture nominees and Kathryn Bigelow to my director list. I believe the film will dominate the critics' awards and even if it does minuscule box-office I think it will be a nominee if there are ten slots.

Don't we need some clarification of how the nominating process for best picture will work before making predictions?

There are (likely) two different ways it will be done:

1) List 5 films preferentially

2) List 10 films preferentially

Or, perhaps, if they can figure out the ramnifications of their actions (not likely, based on the recklessness of the change), drop the weighted in this category, and ask people to name five or ten.

The reason I say this is that however conscientious voters might be in listing five preferentially (and it varies voter to voter), listing ten means that it is going to become far more arbitrary and vulnerable to oddball decisions, or just listing what is the most advertised or most recent or maybe less worthy but a "guilty pleasure". This is how the equivalent of My Big Fat Greek Wedding are going to get in, or Bucket List or other unworthy films that now are likely to clutter this category.

Anyway, whether 5 or 10 are listed is going to make a huge difference in how the final tally turns out.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
Don't we need some clarification of how the nominating process for best picture will work before making predictions?

There are (likely) two different ways it will be done:

1) List 5 films preferentially

2) List 10 films preferentially

Or, perhaps, if they can figure out the ramnifications of their actions (not likely, based on the recklessness of the change), drop the weighted in this category, and ask people to name five or ten.

The reason I say this is that however conscientious voters might be in listing five preferentially (and it varies voter to voter), listing ten means that it is going to become far more arbitrary and vulnerable to oddball decisions, or just listing what is the most advertised or most recent or maybe less worthy but a "guilty pleasure". This is how the equivalent of My Big Fat Greek Wedding are going to get in, or Bucket List or other unworthy films that now are likely to clutter this category.

Anyway, whether 5 or 10 are listed is going to make a huge difference in how the final tally turns out.

I would like to think, and do think, that with ten slot there is little way for the most acclaimed American film of the year, and I think that will stand even in December, will make it into the best picture line-up.

Still, I agree that the movies this decision helps most are thing like "Blood Diamond" and "The Bucket List"- mediocre films designed to appeal to Oscar voters.

This was a generic post, not aimed at precluding the chances of any one film. The Hurt Locker might be strong enough that it would get in irrespective of 5 or 10 slots.

Summit is a new company; they have never had a best picture nominee or a contender in any of the main categories. They have major incentive to prove that they can compete, so they will likely go all out in a bunch of categories.

Hearing some pretty awful things about Kathy Bates in "Cheri". The word 'hammy' keeps coming up (What??? I am shocked! Shocked I tell you!!!) so I am pulling her from my predictions in the supporting actress category.

Call me crazy but I replaced her with Marion Cotillard in "Nine". That's three nominees I have in the category from "Nine"- Cotillard and the more likely Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench. The three actresses line up with the three Tony nominated/winning parts both times "Nine" played on Broadway. I admit three in one category is very rare but it does happen ("The Godfather", "The Godfather Part II", "On the Waterfront", etc). Until something else more likely comes along she takes the slot.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:
Hearing some pretty awful things about Kathy Bates in "Cheri". The word 'hammy' keeps coming up (What??? I am shocked! Shocked I tell you!!!) so I am pulling her from my predictions in the supporting actress category.

Call me crazy but I replaced her with Marion Cotillard in "Nine". That's three nominees I have in the category from "Nine"- Cotillard and the more likely Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench. The three actresses line up with the three Tony nominated/winning parts both times "Nine" played on Broadway. I admit three in one category is very rare but it does happen ("The Godfather", "The Godfather Part II", "On the Waterfront", etc). Until something else more likely comes along she takes the slot.

**cough...Betty White...cough cough**

By the way, Marion Cotillard is said to be considered "lead" in Nine anyways... She's supporting in Public Enemies though...

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:
Hearing some pretty awful things about Kathy Bates in "Cheri". The word 'hammy' keeps coming up (What??? I am shocked! Shocked I tell you!!!) so I am pulling her from my predictions in the supporting actress category.

Call me crazy but I replaced her with Marion Cotillard in "Nine". That's three nominees I have in the category from "Nine"- Cotillard and the more likely Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench. The three actresses line up with the three Tony nominated/winning parts both times "Nine" played on Broadway. I admit three in one category is very rare but it does happen ("The Godfather", "The Godfather Part II", "On the Waterfront", etc). Until something else more likely comes along she takes the slot.

Yup I agree, Kathy Bates won't be nominated for Cheri based on the reviews. It seemed like a one-note role that a number of critics find over the top. At best, she was described as having a few funny scenes, but it seemed like the role doesn't have any substance beyond those few funny scenes.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jayps,

quote:

Originally posted by bocaboy7:

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:
Hearing some pretty awful things about Kathy Bates in "Cheri". The word 'hammy' keeps coming up (What??? I am shocked! Shocked I tell you!!!) so I am pulling her from my predictions in the supporting actress category.

Call me crazy but I replaced her with Marion Cotillard in "Nine". That's three nominees I have in the category from "Nine"- Cotillard and the more likely Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench. The three actresses line up with the three Tony nominated/winning parts both times "Nine" played on Broadway. I admit three in one category is very rare but it does happen ("The Godfather", "The Godfather Part II", "On the Waterfront", etc). Until something else more likely comes along she takes the slot.

**cough...Betty White...cough cough**

By the way, Marion Cotillard is said to be considered "lead" in Nine anyways... She's supporting in Public Enemies though...

Having seen "The Proposal" I just do not think Betty White is good enough to deserve a nomination... though she was funny. Also, if they are going to throw out an honorary nom for someone having a long career I do not think they would do it for someone whose career has been almost exclusively television. Sorry, don't buy it.

I have never seen a production of "Nine" but I did have the album and the wife has few songs so I assume her part is not that big. The actresses playing the part on Broadway have been in the featured category. That leads me to believe the part will be in the supporting category if it gets nominated at all. I have seen the film "Nine" is based on which is "8 1/2" and in that film the male lead is surrounded by various women from his life in small parts. I expect "Nine" is the same.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

I remember the three major trades (HR, Variety & SD) really liking Bates's performance, so I'd say she's in the mix but I'm not positive she'll be nominated. In fact, I'd rather she not be nominated - I've never liked her much as an actress and I'd rather see a new face get in.

yeah me too, I think that Marion Cotillard is supporting in Nine. But I think Judi Dench and Penelope Cruz might get the nominations.

A very interesting post from Jeff Wells over at Hollywood Elsewhere about Marion Cotillard in Public Enemies:

Won't Back Down

However Michael Mann's Public Enemies winds up faring commercially and critically, Marion Cotillard's performance as Billie Frechette, the girlfriend of Johnny Depp's John Dillinger, is an award-quality nail-down. No dramatic actress in recent memory has conveyed as much intestinal steel, and it's all in her eyes. In each of her scenes they have a straight-from-the-shoulder, no b.s. quality. Every time you look at those watery French peepers and think, "God she's beautiful," a subsequent thought happens a split second later: "Man, she's tough."

Even when Cotillard visibly melts at the end when Stephen Lang's G-man character delivers the final line (in what is easily the most moving scene), she does so with remarkable subtlety, like a survivor, like a woman who knows from dignity.

I came to this thought after reading Mark Harris's 6.28 N.Y. Times profile of Mann and the film, and particularly by this passage about Cotillard:

"[Mann's] movies are known for many things, from technological virtuosity to narrative complexity, but prominent roles for women are not among his trademarks. The character of Billie Frechette is something of an exception. Several American actresses wanted the part; Ms. Cotillard won it even though her English was less than rock steady. 'But she's ferocious,' Mr. Mann said. 'She's so focused and artistically ambitious that you knew that come hell or high water she was going to get there.'"

In short, Cotillard looks to me like a lock for Best Supporting Actress contention. Lang's screen time is perhaps a bit too brief to warrant consideration but the way he handles that final scene with Cotillard is nothing short of beautiful. Another supporting standout is Stephen Graham's portrayal of Babyface Nelson -- a screaming tempest, a madman with a tommy gun...."hey!"

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com...9/06/she_kills_1.php

I saw this. It could potentially mean something for Cotillard's awards chances... that is, if Wells' opinions weren't utterly worthless.

I've seen Public Enemies, and I don't think Marion Cotillard was Oscar worthy in it. Actually, I think none of the actors were great. The material doesn't really allow them to be. Although, I guess Cotillard may have been the best in the movie.

Anyway, I, too, would love to know how the nominating procedure is going to work before picking nominees. Are people picking 5 films, or 10? They are using the preferential ballot to choose the top 10 films with the most #1 or #2 votes? That could produce a VERY interesting set of nominees.

Depp is certainly no longer a frontrunner to win, or even be nominated. Who could win?

Sometimes a film is so baity that it just backfires - Revolutionary Road and Changeling are examples - and it is only a matter of time before there's an Eastwood backlash (the Gran Torino snubs last year should mean something) so I expect Invictus to get some nominations but I don't know about any wins - esp. seeing as the film really is an inspirational sports film rather than the gritty Mandela biopic that would actually win a lead actor award for Freeman.

I'm thinking that Holbrook could win if his film is released wide later this year and gets some precursors. I don't know about Damon, he has a good chance of a nomination but neither film role sounds like it fits the "Winner's Mold". Viggo is a likely bet for the win. I don't think DiCaprio is in the running for the win (maybe a nomination) for Shutter Island. Mark Wahlberg could surprise us all with The Lovely Bones - the role is really complex and baity, but time will tell whether he has the talent to pull it off.

I'd also say that Stuhlbarg is too unknown to win, unless he's really fantastic (rarely does an unkown come out to win an Oscar, but it does happen - see F. Murray Abraham). Daniel Day-Lewis already has 2 Oscars (one won recently) and this is definitely not the film that will win him a 3rd.

Jim Carrey could be nominated with critical support, but I really don't think his film will excite the academy enough to land him a win for it. Christopher Plummer could get a career win but his film looks like its going to be too "Masterpiece Theater" to really make a play in the main races.

One person who could definitely surprise is Jeff Bridges, who has a good role in "Crazy Heart", one he could impress in and he's due for a career win as well. It just depends on if the film is noticed. Right now, out of the major players, I'd say Mortensen is the best bet. But maybe a contender will come out of Toronto or Venice that we haven't even heard of yet! (no one was predicting Rourke last year before Venice... and he lost by a hair, and no one was predicting O'Toole at ALL before Toronto - he also came close to winning).

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