Who do you think are the biggest contenders in the four leading categories?

Here are some names...

LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Janet McTeer, "Mary Stuart"
Harriet Walter, "Mary Stuart"
Marcia Gay Harden, "God of Carnage"
Jane Fonda, "33 Variations"
Kristin Scott Thomas, "The Seagull"
Tovah Feldshuh, "Irena's Vow"
Carla Gugino, "Desire Under the Elms"

Other Possibilities:
Susan Sarandon, "Exit the King"
Dianne Wiest, "All My Sons"
Hope Davis, "God of Carnage"


LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY

Geoffrey Rush, "Exit the King"
Raul Esparza, "Speed-the-Plow"
Bill Irwin, "Waiting for Godot"
Thomas Sadoski, "reasons to be pretty"
Brian Dennehy, "Desire Under the Elms"
Frank Langella, "A Man for All Seasons"
Nathan Lane, "Waiting for Godot"

Other Possibilities:
James Gandolfini, "God of Carnage"
Jeff Daniels, "God of Carnage"
Daniel Radcliffe, "Equus"
John Lithgow, "All My Sons"


LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Alice Ripley, "Next to Normal"
Allison Janney, "9 to 5"
Megan Hilty, "9 to 5"
Stephanie J. Block, "9 to 5"
Stockard Channing, "Pal Joey"
Sutton Foster, "Shrek The Musical"

Other Possibilities:
Lauren Graham, "Guys and Dolls"
Kate Jennings Grant, "Guys and Dolls"


LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik & Kiril Kulish, "Billy Elliot"
Brian d'Arcy James, "Shrek The Musical"
Gavin Creel, "Hair"
Will Swenson, "Hair"
James Barbour, "A Tale of Two Cities"

Other Possibilities:
Jeff Bowen, "[title of show]"
Hunter Bell, "[title of show]"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: outsider,

Since "Equus" was a big fat hit I would say Daniel Radcliff is a front-runner rather than a dark horse. Also, with the bad reviews for "All My Sons" I do not know that John Lithgow should be considered a leading contender.

First of all, how can you possibly categorize someone as a frontrunner or a dark horse when their plays haven't even begun previews and have had no out-of-town try-outs?

With "Impressionism" now cut from 2 acts to 1 (because half the audience was bailing at intermission) I would not consider it a frontrunner for anything.

I'm not sure Angela Lansbury will be considered a lead for Blithe Spirit, based on the role.

Of the ones that have already had performances on this list, the only ones that I think are in for sure are

The Billy Elliot boys
Kristin Scott Thomas

And perhaps based on their reception in other productions, you could say Alice Ripley and Brian Dennehy are looking good.

Daniel Radcliffe was looking a lot better earlier in the season but it's shaping up to be a more competitive category than expected due to a lot of late-season entries.

I've heard good things about Stephanie J. Block's performance in 9 to 5, and she's also an up-and-comer on the Bway community's radar.

I have a feeling Jane Fonda will make it in the end, despite a lack of enthusiasm for the play and its terrible box office, but the competition is pretty fierce - a white hot West End production of Mary Stuart on its way, Susan Sarandon (?), Tony faves Christine Ebersole and Tovah Feldshuh, and the God of Carnage women (category placement?).

quote:

Originally posted by R2684:
First of all, how can you possibly categorize someone as a frontrunner or a dark horse when their plays haven't even begun previews and have had no out-of-town try-outs?

I am just trying to compile a list that will be updated as we approach the end of the eligibility period and these races become clear.

Thank you for the information you provided. Do you know who else is in contention for Leading Actor in a Musical? The category seems rather weak this year.

If I remember correctly, you have a website about the Tonys. Could you post the link again? It was very interesting to read your thoughts last year.

I would think Angela Lansbury would be lead, I believe her name appears above the credits. Plus Geraldine Page played the same role and was nominated in Lead.

I don't have a website on the Tonys - that must be someone else...

Leading Actor in a Musical is mighty thin this year...even though [title of show] closed a while ago, don't forget about Jeff Bowen and Hunter Bell, who were bumped up from featured to leading. You could probably add Matt Cavenaugh for West Side Story to the list of possibles...will Marc Kudisch be a lead or featured for 9 to 5?

I had forgotten Geraldine Page was nominated for the same role Angela Lansbury is playing. Good catch there. I still say it's possible the role that could go either way and the decision might be different this time (it's happened before many times) regardless of billing. For the time being I guess safe to assume she'll be a Lead.

What are the chances that Horton Foote's "Dividing the Estate" will nab major nominations, including best play? Director? Acting? Set design?

Hallie Foote will for sure be nominated for Best Featured Actress in a Play and the set will also be nominated.

A nomination for Best Play is also, I think, close to a sure thing for a nomination...especially in the wake of Horton Foote's death. Not so sure about Directing.

Joan Allen and Jeremy Irons are definitely out.

quote:

Originally posted by BTN:
Joan Allen and Jeremy Irons are definitely out.

Yep.

Christine Ebersole is probably too.

quote:

Originally posted by will42:

quote:

Originally posted by BTN:
Joan Allen and Jeremy Irons are definitely out.

Yep.

Christine Ebersole is probably too.

Why is Ebersole out? She has got a lot of good reviews, not as many as Lansbury, but still several.

I think Allen and Ebersole are out, too. You've got Kristin Scott Thomas, Angela Lansbury, and Jane Fonda all looking pretty good right now. Between the 2 Mary Stuart women, Tovah Feldshuh, Susan Sarandon (early word on her is iffy) and the possiblity of the two God of Carnage women, it's looking like a steep hill for Allen and Ebersole to climb.

quote:

Originally posted by Royal Night:

Why is Ebersole out? She has got a lot of good reviews, not as many as Lansbury, but still several.

If Angela Lansbury is placed in the leading category, Christine Ebersole is probably out. It will be very difficult for "Blithe Spirit" to receive two nominations for Leading Actress in such a competitive year.

James Barbour in "A Tale of Two Cities" got mixed reviews, but I think there were enough in the vein of "Well, at least he tried to inject some life into the show" to at least put his name down in the very weak Lead Actor in a Musical category.

quote:

Originally posted by tonorlo:
James Barbour in "A Tale of Two Cities" got mixed reviews, but I think there were enough in the vein of "Well, at least he tried to inject some life into the show" to at least put his name down in the very weak Lead Actor in a Musical category.

I agree I think Lead Actor in a Musical will have at least one actor from a canceled show. Its such a weak category this year. Plus, if the critically destroyed "Taboo" can receive 4 Tony nominations, I say anything is possible.

Marcia Gay Harden has gotten some great reviews too; I'd say her, Kristin, and Angela are all looking solid.

Based on critical reception Marcia Gay Harden does seem like the cast member of God of Carnage most likely to get a nod.

Lauren Graham's streak of futility at major Awards continues...this time on the Great White Way...

Well since Alice Ripley won't be eligible for the Drama Desk Awards, I would say Lauren Graham has a chance of being nominated there.

Well, Ms. Lansbury will compete in different category.
I think we can cross Susan Sarandon off of the list.