Tony Awards 2009: Predicting the Winners

Melissa Rose Bernardo tells us who she thinks will be taking home the prize in every category on Broadway's biggest night.

by Melissa Rose Bernardo

A month ago, no one thought that "Rock of Ages" would get five Tony nominations (including one for hair-tossing "American Idol" alum Constantine Maroulis!). Or that DreamWorks' swamp-dwelling "Shrek" would come away with eight nods, including Best Musical. Hey, sometimes our crystal balls are fuzzy. (Back in January, the media were forecasting nothing but gloom and doom for Broadway. Now that 43 productions have opened this season, they're singing a slightly different tune.) But that won't stop us from taking a crack at predicting the winners of the 2009 Tonys. Tune in June 7 to see how we did; Neil Patrick Harris hosts the festivities at Radio City Music Hall, broadcast live on CBS from 8 to 11 p.m.

BEST PLAY

"Dividing the Estate," by Horton Foote
"God of Carnage," by Yasmina Reza
"reasons to be pretty," by Neil LaBute
"33 Variations," by Moisés Kaufman

Winner: "God of Carnage"
Possible spoiler: "reasons to be pretty"

"Carnage" is fast, funny, short, and relatively snappy. And while it isn't quite as taut as "Art," Reza's 1998 Tony winner for Best Play, it's a fine play made even better by a top-drawer cast — Jeff Daniels, Hope Davis, Marcia Gay Harden, and James Gandolfini, all nominated — and Matthew Warchus' masterful direction. But the provocative "pretty" — though it will likely close soon after the Tony telecast — has many fans; it's a new American play and it got terrific reviews.

BEST MUSICAL

"Billy Elliot, the Musical"
"Next to Normal"
"Rock of Ages"
"Shrek the Musical"

Winner: "Billy Elliot"
Possible spoiler: "Next to Normal"

They both have rich characters, compelling stories, and terrific music. And "Normal" is wholly original, while "Billy" is based on the 2000 film. So how does "Billy" have the edge? It's big — and not in a showy, falling-chandelier way. In a chorus-of-ballerinas, massive-production-number, dancing-curtain-call way. And — with few exceptions (most notably, "Avenue Q" beating "Wicked") — the bigger show usually wins.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

"Billy Elliot, the Musical" (Lee Hall)
"Next to Normal" (Brian Yorkey)
"Shrek the Musical" (David Lindsay-Abaire)
"[title of show]" (Hunter Bell)

Winner: "Billy Elliot"
Possible spoiler: "Next to Normal"

Some argue that Hall shouldn't win because he was working from his own Oscar-nominated screenplay. Didn't Yorkey have the tougher job, crafting something entirely from scratch — particularly centering on the supersensitive topic of mental illness? But Hall did the most work — more than director Stephen Daldry, more than composer Elton John — in bringing "Billy" to the stage. Without his book — the bones of the piece — "Billy" wouldn't fly. Plus, there's another way to reward Yorkey, and that is...

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

"Billy Elliot, the Musical" (Music: Elton John; Lyrics: Lee Hall)
"Next to Normal" (Music: Tom Kitt; Lyrics: Brian Yorkey)
"9 to 5: The Musical" (Music & Lyrics: Dolly Parton)
"Shrek the Musical" (Music: Jeanine Tesori; Lyrics: David Lindsay-Abaire)

Winner: "Next to Normal"
Possible spoiler: "Billy Elliot"

Fair warning — I'm going out on a limb here. Book and Score tend to go together, but a split isn't so strange — it happened last year when "Passing Strange" won book and "In the Heights" won score. Honestly, I think voters are going to want to reward "Next to Normal." It's rock, it's pop, it's country, it's spectacular. And if I'm being honest, it gets much more play in my iPod than "Billy." That said — "Billy" is Elton John's best score to date. He may have won a Tony in 2000 for "Aida," but "Billy" truly establishes him as a musical-theater composer. (As for "9 to 5" and "Shrek": Dolly got a nom just for being Dolly, and though "Shrek" is smarter than you'd expect, it doesn't have much drive.)

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

"Joe Turner's Come and Gone"
"Mary Stuart"
"The Norman Conquests"
"Waiting for Godot"

Winner: "The Norman Conquests"
Possible spoiler: None

Any show in this category could win in any other year. But no show this season — nay, in recent memory — got more love than this smashing British import. I'd happily surrender another 7½ hours to see the entire trilogy ("Table Manners," "Living Together," and "Round and Round the Garden") all over again.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

"Guys and Dolls"
"Hair"
"Pal Joey"
"West Side Story"

Winner: "Hair"
Possible spoiler: None

Last year, Arthur Laurents brought back "Gypsy," only to see "South Pacific" sail off with a boatload of raves and the Best Revival Tony. Unfortunately for Laurents and "West Side Story," it's happening again with "Hair."

BEST SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT

"Liza's at the Palace"
"Slava's Snowshow"
"Soul of Shaolin"
"You're Welcome America. A Final Night With George W. Bush"

Winner: "Liza's at the Palace"
Possible spoiler: "You're Welcome America . . ."

Who ever thought you'd see Liza Minnelli in a Tony-night smackdown with Will Ferrell? Personally, my money's on Liza. I think Liza could probably take down all of "Soul of Shaolin"'s Chinese acrobats.

LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY

Jeff Daniels, "God of Carnage"
Raúl Esparza, "Speed-the-Plow"
James Gandolfini, "God of Carnage"
Geoffrey Rush, "Exit the King"
Thomas Sadoski, "reasons to be pretty"

Winner: Geoffrey Rush
Possible spoiler: None

Every guy in this category is giving a Tony-worthy performance right now. But the rubber-limbed Rush — who also co-adapted the absurdist Ionesco play — has ruled awards season, winning the Outer Critics, Drama Desk, and Drama League awards for his flamboyant, acrobatic turn as a dying king.

LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Hope Davis, "God of Carnage"
Jane Fonda, "33 Variations"
Marcia Gay Harden, "God of Carnage"
Janet McTeer, "Mary Stuart"
Harriet Walter, "Mary Stuart"

Winner: Marcia Gay Harden
Possible spoilers: Janet McTeer, Jane Fonda

Harden has the meatiest role in "Carnage" (despite Davis' terrific projectile-vomiting trick). She beats down husband James Gandolfini — literally — every night. Pummels him! As for the "Stuart" women, though Walter gives the more nuanced performance as Elizabeth I, McTeer's Mary rants, raves, and runs through a rainstorm. And though "33 Variations" has closed, Fonda did a lot to endear herself to the Broadway community. Witness this hilariously self-effacing sketch at the Easter Bonnet Competition.

LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Gavin Creel, "Hair"
Brian d'Arcy James, "Shrek the Musical"
Constantine Maroulis, "Rock of Ages"
J. Robert Spencer, "Next to Normal"

Winner: David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish
Possible spoiler: Brian d'Arcy James

The "Billy" boys should be getting a special Tony. Very few people are going to see all three of them, and Tony voters were told that they only had to see one, so the question is — will they want to reward a performer they haven't seen, and one who does only a few shows a week? I suspect yes, considering the huge challenges of the role (once Billy comes on stage, he rarely leaves!). But d'Arcy James is up there eight times a week under a mountain of makeup in "Shrek." And all that burping and farting is harder than it looks.

LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Stockard Channing, "Pal Joey"
Sutton Foster, "Shrek the Musical"
Allison Janney, "9 to 5: The Musical"
Alice Ripley, "Next to Normal"
Josefina Scaglione, "West Side Story"

Winner: Alice Ripley
Possible spoiler: Allison Janney

If going mental, getting shock therapy, and belting your guts out for two hours doesn't get a gal a Tony Award, then seriously, what the heck does? Still, self-professed non-singer Allison Janney has slowly been gathering steam for her turn as sassy secretary Violet in "9 to 5." She likely won't overtake Ripley, but it's a flashy role, and she's the best thing in the show.

FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

John Glover, "Waiting for Godot"
Zach Grenier, "33 Variations"
Stephen Mangan, "The Norman Conquests"
Paul Ritter, "The Norman Conquests"
Roger Robinson, "Joe Turner's Come and Gone"

Winner: Stephen Mangan
Possible spoiler: Roger Robinson

Come out onto that limb with me once again. Mangan's Norman may be oversexed, overextended, and in dire need of a haircut, but darned if he doesn't endear himself to every woman in the audience. No wonder his wife, her sister, and her sister-in-law find him completely irresistible. (Plus, Tony voters love Brits.) But Robinson's chances are awfully good. August Wilson plays have earned lots of Tony Awards for featured actors: Viola Davis in "King Hedley II," Ruben Santiago-Hudson in "Seven Guitars," Larry Fishburne in "Two Trains Running," L. Scott Caldwell in the original "Joe Turner," Mary Alice in "Fences."

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Hallie Foote, "Dividing the Estate"
Jessica Hynes, "The Norman Conquests"
Marin Ireland, "reasons to be pretty"
Angela Lansbury, "Blithe Spirit"
Amanda Root, "The Norman Conquests"

Winner: Angela Lansbury
Possible spoiler: None

Never mind that she already has four Tonys. Just because "Blithe Spirit" is a play about dead people doesn't mean it has to be deadly dull — Lansbury seems to be the only person on stage who realizes that.

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

David Bologna, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Gregory Jbara, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Marc Kudisch, "9 to 5: The Musical"
Christopher Sieber, "Shrek the Musical"
Will Swenson, "Hair"

Winner: Will Swenson
Possible spoiler: Gregory Jbara

On the limb again . . . As Billy's bigoted dad, Jbara makes a major impression in what could be a one-note role. But people love Swenson — who plays "Hair"'s pants-dropping hippie Berger — more than they're willing to admit. His performance is pure joy. And don't get us started on his abs.

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Jennifer Damiano, "Next to Normal"
Haydn Gwynne, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Karen Olivo, "West Side Story"
Martha Plimpton, "Pal Joey"
Carole Shelley, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"

Winner: Karen Olivo
Possible spoiler: Haydn Gwynne

A very tight race: Gwynne — a leg-warming scene-stealer as the chain-smoking ballet teacher — has already won a heap of awards in both London and New York. Still, the women are the best thing in "West Side Story," and Olivo is the best of the lot; she's not a dancer — she's a singer-actress who worked her you-know-what off to learn Jerome Robbins' intricate choreography. It totally paid off.

SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

Dale Ferguson, "Exit the King"
Rob Howell, "The Norman Conquests"
Derek McLane, "33 Variations"
Michael Yeargan, "Joe Turner's Come and Gone"

Winner: "33 Variations"
Possible spoiler: "Joe Turner's Come and Gone"

"33 Variations" ' set (projections of musical notes, sheet upon sheet of music) was completely inseparable from the Beethoven-focused play — precisely the definition of a perfect set. Yeargan's mobile, minimalist "Joe Turner" set has its admirers, but some find it too modern.

SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Robert Brill, "Guys and Dolls"
Ian MacNeil, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Scott Pask, "Pal Joey"
Mark Wendland, "Next to Normal"

Winner: "Billy Elliot"
Possible spoiler: "Guys and Dolls"

I don't understand all the love for "Guys and Dolls" ' gaudy, generic set pieces, but they have a following. The best thing about MacNeil's purposely-shabby sets is their mobility — actors can move bits and pieces to transition from scene to scene. That's why "Billy Elliot" flows so smoothly.

COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY

Dale Ferguson, "Exit the King"
Jane Greenwood, "Waiting for Godot"
Martin Pakledinaz, "Blithe Spirit"
Anthony Ward, "Mary Stuart"

Winner: "Mary Stuart"
Possible spoiler: "Exit the King"

Usually, the most lavish costumes win, but Ward's designs — the two queens don period gowns, the multitudes of men wear business attire are a triumph of concept.

COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Gregory Gale, "Rock of Ages"
Nicky Gillibrand, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Tim Hatley, "Shrek the Musical"
Michael McDonald, "Hair"

Winner: "Shrek"
Possible spoiler: "Rock of Ages"

"Shrek" wins because this is the closest thing the Tonys has to a makeup-design category, and it's a high-maintenance show. But I know people who have already checked the "Rock of Ages" box on their ballots. Never underestimate the power of crimped hair, blue eyeshadow, ripped fishnets, and pleather.

LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY

David Hersey, "Equus"
David Lander, "33 Variations"
Brian MacDevitt, "Joe Turner's Come and Gone"
Hugh Vanstone, "Mary Stuart"

Winner: "33 Variations"
Possible spoiler: "Equus"

Sets and lighting often go together, so I'm betting on Beethoven. "33 Variations" is also fresher in voters' minds than "Equus." Then again, it's tough to forget a naked Daniel Radcliffe in moody blue lighting.

LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Kevin Adams, "Hair"
Kevin Adams, "Next to Normal"
Howell Binkley, "West Side Story"
Rick Fisher, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"

Winner: "Billy Elliot"
Possible spoiler: None

Can we also give Fisher — who won in 1994 for another Stephen Daldry-directed, Ian MacNeil-designed British import, "An Inspector Calls" — a prize for Most Creative Use of Headlamps in a Broadway Musical?

SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY

Paul Arditti, "Mary Stuart"
Gregory Clarke, "Equus"
Russell Goldsmith, "Exit the King"
Scott Lehrer, Leon Rothenberg, "Joe Turner's Come and Gone"

Winner: "Exit the King"
Possible spoiler: "Joe Turner's Come and Gone"

The final scene of "Exit the King" is all about sound — Susan Sarandon's soothing, disembodied voice guiding Geoffrey Rush's fading monarch to his long-awaited fate. It's positively hypnotic.

SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Acme Sound Partners, "Hair"
Paul Arditti, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Peter Hylenski, "Rock of Ages"
Brian Ronan, "Next to Normal"

Winner: "Billy Elliot"
Possible spoiler: "Hair"

Voters are still wrestling with this two-year-old category. Generally, it's about where they had the best listening experience: Were the lyrics comprehensible; was everything audible without being ear-popping?

DIRECTOR OF A PLAY

Phyllida Lloyd, "Mary Stuart"
Bartlett Sher, "Joe Turner's Come and Gone"
Matthew Warchus, "God of Carnage"
Matthew Warchus, "The Norman Conquests"

Winner: Matthew Warchus, "The Norman Conquests"
Possible spoiler: Matthew Warchus, "God of Carnage"

Between "Norman" and "Carnage," there are 10 actors, and 8 of them got Tony nominations; one will win Best Revival, the other will win Best Play. It's all a credit to Warchus, who has three previous noms ("Art," "True West," "Boeing-Boeing") but no trophies. So why does he get it for "Norman"? Simple — three plays, three times the work.

DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL

Stephen Daldry, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Michael Greif, "Next to Normal"
Kristin Hanggi, "Rock of Ages"
Diane Paulus, "Hair"

Winner: Stephen Daldry, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Possible Spoiler: Diane Paulus, "Hair"

Paulus deserves most the credit for turning a show no one knew they wanted to see again into a must-see. But Daldry had more to wrangle with "Billy Elliot" — not the least of which was directing multiple actors in the title role.

CHOREOGRAPHY

Karole Armitage, "Hair"
Andy Blankenbuehler, "9 to 5: The Musical"
Peter Darling, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Randy Skinner, "Irving Berlin's White Christmas"

Winner: "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Possible spoiler: None

Darling — whose work fuses tap, ballet, jazz, modern, and even gymnastics — had this category sewn up from Billy's first pirouette.

ORCHESTRATIONS

Larry Blank, "Irving Berlin's White Christmas"
Martin Koch, "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Michael Starobin, Tom Kitt, "Next to Normal"
Danny Troob, John Clancy, "Shrek the Musical"

Winner: "Billy Elliot, the Musical"
Possible spoiler: "Next to Normal"

Score and Orchestrations tend to go together; still, I think "Billy" has an edge here. It's a way to acknowledge Elton John's terrific compositions. (Many voters think of orchestrations as a best-score consolation prize.)