Here are all of the eligible Leading Actors and Actresses for this year.

LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY (19 possibilities)
Accent on Youth - David Hyde Pierce
All My Sons - John Lithgow
The American Plan - no one eligible
Blithe Spirit - Rupert Everett
Desire Under the Elms - Pablo Schreiber
Dividing the Estate - no one eligible
Equus- Richard Griffiths, Daniel Radcliffe
Exit the King - Geoffrey Rush
God of Carnage - Jeff Daniels, James Gandolfini
Hedda Gabler - no one eligible
Impressionism - Jeremy Irons
Irena's Vow - no one eligible
Joe Turner's Come and Gone - no one eligible
A Man of All Seasons - Frank Langella
Mary Stuart - no one eligible
The Norman Conquests - no one eligible
reasons to be pretty - Thomas Sadoski
The Philanthropist - Matthew Broderick
The Seagull - Peter Sarsgaard
Speed-the-Plow - Raul Esparza, Jeremy Piven
33 Variations - no one eligible
To Be or Not to Be - David Rasche
Waiting for Godot - Bill Irwin, Nathan Lane

My analysis: There are 3 locks: Geoffrey Rush, Thomas Sadoski, and Bill Irwin. There are 5 legitimate contenders for the final 2 spots: Daniel Radcliffe, Raul Esparza, Nathan Lane, James Gandolfini, and Jeff Daniels. I think it will be Radcliffe and Esparza. In any event, they should all be thankful that David Hyde Pierce, Matthew Broderick, John Lithgow, Frank Langella, and Jeremy Irons, who are all previous Tony winners with 8 Tonys among them, appeared in vehicles that were not that well-received, and they are all effectively out of the running.

LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY (15 possibilities)
Accent on Youth - no one eligible
All My Sons - Dianne Wiest
The American Plan - no one eligible
Blithe Spirit - Jayne Atkinson, Christine Ebersole
Desire Under the Elms - Carla Gugino
Dividing the Estate - no one eligible
Equus - no one eligible
Exit the King - Susan Sarandon
God of Carnage - Hope Davis, Marcia Gay Harden
Hedda Gabler - Mary-Louise Parker
Impressionism - Joan Allen
Irena's Vow - Tovah Feldshuh
Joe Turner's Come and Gone - no one eligible
A Man of All Seasons - no one eligible
Mary Stuart - Janet McTeer, Harriet Walter
The Norman Conquests - no one eligible
reasons to be pretty - no one eligible
The Philanthropist - no one eligible
The Seagull - Kristin Scott Thomas
Speed-the-Plow - no one eligible
33 Variations - Jane Fonda
To Be or Not to Be - Jan Maxwell
Waiting for Godot - no one eligible

My analysis: The only lock here is Marcia Gay Harden (whom I think has virtually no chance of winning, but at least one person from God of Carnage is going to get nominated). The legitimate contenders for the other 4 slots are these 7 women: Jayne Atkinson, Carla Gugino, Tovah Feldshuh, Janet McTeer, Harriet Walter, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Jane Fonda. (Pretty illustrious group!) Kristin Scott Thomas will unfortunately probably be forgotten. I think it will be Carla Gugino, Janet McTeer, Harriet Walter, and Jane Fonda.

LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL (17 possibilities)
Billy Elliott - the Billys
Guys and Dolls - Oliver Platt, Craig Bierko
Hair - Gavin Creel
Next to Normal - J Robert Spencer
9 to 5 - no one eligible
Pal Joey - Matthew Risch
Rock of Ages - Constantine Maroulis
Shrek - Brian D'Arcy James
Story of My Life (?) - Will Chase, Malcolm Gets
13 - Graham Phillips
A Tale of Two Cities - James Barbour
[title of show] - Hunter Bell, Jeff Bowen
West Side Story - Matt Cavenaugh
White Christmas - Stephen Bogardus, Jeffry Denman

(I don't think we were ever officially told one way or the other whether Story of My Life is Tony-eligible.)

My analysis: The only locks are the three Billys. The remaining 4 slots will come from these these 5 men in all likelihood: Gavin Creel, J Robert Spencer, Brian D'Arcy James, James Barbour, and Matt Cavenaugh. I think the odd man out will be James Barbour, both because his show is a distant memory at this point and widely perceived as a flop, and fairly or unfairly, for his personal history.
It is not completely out of the question that Malcolm Gets or one of the [title of show] boys (probably Hunter Bell) gets a nomination, but I think they are currently behind the other 6 mentioned.

LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL (12 possibilities)
Billy Elliott - no one eligible
Guys and Dolls - Lauren Graham, Kate Jennings Grant
Hair - no one eligible
Next to Normal -Alice Ripley
9 to 5 -Stephanie J Block, Allison Janney, Megan Hilty
Pal Joey -Stockard Channing
Rock of Ages - Amy Spanger
Shrek - Sutton Foster
Story of My Life - no one eligible
13 - no one eligible
A Tale of Two Cities - no one eligible
[title of show] - no one eligible
West Side Story - Josefina Scaglione
White Christmas - Meredith Patterson, Kerry O'Malley

My analysis: The only lock is Alice Ripley. The other 4 slots will be filled from these 5 women: Stephanie J Block, Allison Janney, Megan Hilty, Sutton Foster, and Josefina Scaglione. I think Sutton Foster will be the one left out -- Shrek is not the best vehicle for anyone, and it also has the aura of being yesterday's news and also a disappointment.
It is possible that Stockard Channing or Kate Jennings Grant will squeak in, but I don't think so.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: mikem,

I'm pretty bewildered by why you think Marcia Gay Harden is a lock for a nomination but the two Mary Stuart women are not. I think all three will be nominated but would sooner put money on McTeer and Walter than MGH.

I think you also underestimate Sutton Foster's chances. Repeatedly I've heard her been called the best thing about Shrek. It was a while ago now, but I remember her getting better reviews than any of the 9 to 5 women. Plus, she's a popular gold-plated Broadway leading lady.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: R2684,