This is by far the most helpful article each year when predicting the Tonys. They have a fabulous track record. (I remember when Raul Esparza was widely assumed to be the frontrunner for Actor, and the NYT article stated that the race was a toss-up, with DHP even having more votes than Esparza in their tally.)

Some quick notes -- Billy Elliot might not sweep; Norman Conquests' support isn't as strong as most expect; lots and lots of close categories

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06...cial/06Tony.html?hpw

In these types of polls I always find it more instructive to pay attention to who these twenty-odd voters actually voted for as opposed to who they think will win.

The article seems to confirm a lot of what we expected already, with a few mild surprises.

I was pretty stunned that Matthew Warchus got a few more votes for "God of Carnage" than "The Norman Conquests" -- that will be so wrong if that's the end result, not only over his work in Norman but over all the other nominees as well. Also very surprised that Jeff Daniels was the runner-up for Leading Actor...and that one voter actually thought his performance was moving. Personally I wouldn't have been bothered if he hadn't made the cut.

They also outright give Karen Olivo the Featured Actress in a Musical award, without mentioning Hadyn Gwynne as competition. This may cause me to re-think my thinking on this one -- Olvio it seems is benefitting from West Side being fresher in voter's minds than Billy Elliot.

If you read between the lines it seems that Jane Fonda came in fourth in their poll of voters, which doesn't surprise me and further makes me think that anyone claiming that this is a movie star goes to Broadway themed Marcia Gay Harden vs. Jane Fonda race doesn't know what they're talking about. I was a little surprised that Harriet Walter got more support than Janet McTeer, which again for me was the performance of the season by an Actress. She does have that Drama Desk, at least.

And the three billy and Alice Ripley. Duh.

Though I don't doubt a lot of races will be close, the main cliffhangers this year seem to be...

Will Next to Normal manage to hold onto the slight edge they seem to have for Score, and possibly, upset for Book?

Who will edge out the competition for Best Actress in a Play?

And who will win almost all of the design categories, especially on the play side, which nobody cares about, but in which there are almost no clear frontrunners.

I predict Marcia Gay Harden gets best actress.

Jeff Daniels was their Best Actor runner-up? I thought for sure that the Carnage guys were going to cancel each other out. Dang. Hopefully Thomas Sadoski can still win over the hearts of a few.

I agree that calling Jeff Daniels's character and performance "touching" is inexplicable. His character is pretty close to a one-note caricature who is unsympathetic, seems to learn nothing and has no character arc. I think that Daniels did a good job with the role, but I too would not be upset if he did not get a nomination. (Although I felt that he made more impact than Gandolfini, who seemed a bit subdued in comparison to his co-stars at the performance I saw. The women definitely outshone the men at that performance.)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: mikem,

quote:

Originally posted by mikem:
I agree that calling Jeff Daniels's character and performance "touching" is inexplicable. His character is pretty close to a one-note caricature who is unsympathetic, seems to learn nothing and has no character arc. I think that Daniels did a good job with the role, but I too would not be upset if he did not get a nomination. (Although I felt that he made more impact than Gandolfini, who seemed a bit subdued in comparison to his co-stars at the performance I saw. The women definitely outshone the men at that performance.)

I don't know if that had to do with the actors themselves, or the fact that the playwright was just more comfortable writing women's roles. Obviously, a lot of writers out there can write for the opposite gender. Maybe she's not one of them though.

Well, Reza's "Art" - one of the most popular and widely performed contemporary plays - is just three men and all three characters are smartly written. It's gem of a comedy for middle-aged male actors.