My impression is that most people who have seen both productions think South Pacific is going to win Best Revival and not Gypsy -- Tom, rather than "Can South Pacific beat Gypsy...," your headline should be "Won't South Pacific beat Gypsy..."! People are ignoring South Pacific for the moment because it hasn't opened yet and therefore doesn't have any reviews yet, but the buzz is incredible. Gypsy is a triumph of performances and casting, but I think South Pacific will be regarded as the better overall production (and the more revelatory one).

(By the way, I don't think the New York magazine blogger is that familiar with all the shows in question, or that person would know how to spell Kelli O'Hara's name and also mention Daniel Breaker from Passing Strange by name rather than calling him "one of the chameleons that back up Stew" -- not that he's a chameleon anyway (except as an actor), since he only plays one part. There is no way that someone else in Passing Strange would get a Featured Actor nomination over him.)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: mikem,

Between "South Pacific" and "Sunday in the Park with George," I really don't think "Gypsy" is going to be in serious contention for the Tony. As mikem says, this production of "Gypsy" is a triumph of casting over production...and even the casting has been a bit hit-and-miss with the critics.

At the moment "Gypsy" has great momentum and buzz and I believe has a good chance at winning the award for Best Revival of a Musical. "Sunday" is a critically and somewhat financially successful revival of a brilliant piece and Roundabout has proven that it can win the Tony for Best Revival of a Musical ("Cabaret" in 1998, "Nine" in 2003, "Assassins" in 2004, and "The Pajama Game" in 2006). "South Pacific" is a big and ambitious project and I would never count out a production before it even opened, but at the same time remember that Lincoln Center has only won once in the category of Best Revival of a Musical ("Carousel" in 1994) and only once in Best Musical ("Contact" in 2000). LCT traditionally does much better with revivals of plays, performance awards, and set, lighting, and costume awards.

Right now I think the Tony will go to "Gypsy" as a way of recognizing Arthur Laurents who was scoffed at by many when putting this revival together. "South Pacific" definitely has a good chance at winning this award, but I think in terms of campaigning in this category, Roundabout (for "Sunday) and the commercial producers (Roger Berlind and the Frankel Group) of Gypsy have the edge.

SP could tour better so SP.

From what I'm hearing from people who've seen South Pacific in previews, I predict the reviews to be just as stellar (if not more) as Gypsy's. I also think Gypsy may actually take home 3 acting trophies for Patti LuPone, Laura Benanti, and Boyd Gaines, so the place where South Pacific will be rewarded is in Best Revival. Not to mention it's the very first revival of the classic, as many have said her already. I also agree with BTN...South Pacific has a prospect for a succesful tour (which is very important to Tony voters). The only way a Gypsy tour now would be marketable is if LuPone toured with it, and i doubt that would happen. So I give the edge to South Pacific.

The reviews for "South Pacific" are even more rapturous than the ones for "Gypsy" so I believe it has the edge. Add the fact that "South Pacific" has never been revived so it seems more of an event than "Gypsy" which has been on Broadway four times since the original... and one of the revivals was also directed by Laurent. I expect a split with "South Pacific" taking revival, director and likely some tech prizes (though "Sunday in the Park with George" should at least do well in the tech depts) while "Gypsy" takes actress, featured actress and maybe featured actor. I also believe this production of "South Pacific" could have a long life with replacement casts while "Gypsy" will fold as soon as Patti Lupone tires of doing it.

Best Revival and Best Director are almost certainly going to go to "South Pacific"...these are some of the most uniformly best reviews I've seen for a musical in some time.

Either Kelli O'Hara wins Best Actress and Gypsy takes Revival or Patti Lupone wins Best Actress and South pacific takes revival.

"Gypsy" does not have a chance to beat "South Pacific" for Best Revival...

Patti LuPone certainly seems ahead for Best Actress in a Musical at the moment, but I don't think it's a done deal; O'Hara is a Tony waiting to happen and in a hugely popular, successful show right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if she rides its coattails right up to the podium.

quote:

Originally posted by R2684:
"Gypsy" does not have a chance to beat "South Pacific" for Best Revival...

Patti LuPone certainly seems ahead for Best Actress in a Musical at the moment, but I don't think it's a done deal; O'Hara is a Tony waiting to happen and in a hugely popular, successful show right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if she rides its coattails right up to the podium.

Agreed. I think its very possible Kelli O'Hara could take this..

I wouldn't count out 'Gypsy' just yet though. I feel like they are going to try and reward both shows as best they can.

Since the reviews and the recent tour and extension on Broadway announcements, I have now changed my feelings on the way this race will pan out. I think that "South Pacific" will take the Best Revival Tony and Kelli will win a Tony someday, but it won't be this year because based on the negative buzz coming off of "A Catered Affair", I think Patti has a complete lock on the Tony for Best Actress. "SP" will probably take costumes and sound design, and possibly lighting, but it will almost certainly take director of a musical.

To call somebody a "complete lock" when no--NO--theater awards for this season have yet been given out is a teensy-weensy bit premature.

Are voters tired of awarding Mama Roses? Winokur beat out Peters--a Tony favorite--at the last "Gypsy" revival. TPTB may be more impressed with someone [O'Hara] who found some depth and subtlety in a role that hasn't been done on Broadway in decades, rather than voting for another loud take on Rose. Not that Lupone isn't great, but I had a real "been there, done that" feeling at "Gypsy" that I most certainly didn't at "SP".

This message has been edited. Last edited by: adamunc,

Now based on reviews, box office and touring ability it is really going to be South Pacific. I thought Gypsy would have the edge in reviews but that belongs to South Pacific.