Since last year's predix thread is still up, I decided to establish this thread to talk about the plays/musicals, and who is looking especially hopeful for awards even this early on.

These are some of the nominations I think we can look forward to next Tonys:

BEST PLAY
?

BEST MUSICAL
13 The Musical
Billy Elliot
Shrek the Musical

BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL
David Alderaz, Billy Elliot

BEST FEATURE ACTRESS, MUSICAL
Hayden Gwen, Billy Elliot

BEST SCORE
13 The Musical
Billy Elliot

BEST ACTOR, PLAY
Raul Esparza, Speed-the-Plow
Richard Griffiths, Equus
Daniel Radcliffe, Equus

BEST ACTRESS, PLAY
Kristin Scott Thomas, The Seagull

BEST REVIVAL, PLAY
All My Sons
Equus
The Seagull
Speed-the-Plow


Remember, this is a rough list, and one with need of editing.

Feel free to post your own rough list too.

I wonder if Haydn Gwynne will go Featured? Back when Billy Elliot started in London at the Laurence Olivier Awards she was nominated in Lead. I think she would have a better chance to win in Featured but I'm not sure which category they will put her in.
13 is closing in January so I'm not sure if it will get any nominations.
I think Guys & Dolls, Hair, and West Side Story will all be in the Musical Revival category.

Well, as of now, anyway:

Best Play
Likely
Dividing the Estate
(there is a chance it might be ruled a revival, but I think they'll put it here. Everyone wants Horton Foote to win a Tony.)

Unlikely
To Be Or Not To Be

Best Musical
Likely
Billy Elliot
[title of show]

Possible
13

Unlikely
White Christmas

Best Revival of a Play
Likely
The Seagull

Possible
All My Sons
Equus
A Man for All Seasons
Speed-the-Plow

Best Revival of a Musical
nothing yet

Special Theatrical Event
Likely
Liza

Still to Open:

Plays
The American Plan (Broadway debut, but not a new play. Revival? New?)
Blithe Spirit (revival)
Hedda Gabler (revival)
33 Variations (new)
Impressionism (new)
Mary Stuart (revival)
The Philanthropist (revival)
Accent on Youth (revival)
Waiting for Godot (revival)

Musicals
Pal Joey {revival)
Shrek the Musical (new)
The Story of My Life (new)
Vanities (new)
Guys and Dolls (revival)
Hair (revival)
West Side Story (revival)
9 to 5 (new)

Others
Slava's Snowshow
Soul of Shaolin
You're Welcome America

-All 3 Billys are likely going to share a single nomination for Billy Elliot, though we'll get the official word on that after the next ruling.

-Hallie Foote is a shoo-in for a nod for Dividing the Estate, but whether she's going to be considered Leading or Featured is tbd.

-The Seagull (Revival), Kristin Scott Thomas (Leading), Carrie Mulligan (Featured), Ian Rickson (Directing) are all locks.

-Billy Elliot and [title of show] looking pretty good for Book/Score nods.

Pretty lean year for new plays, and not a particularly exciting one for new musicals either.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: R2684,

I think you have made a good list of all possible contenders, but I think Blithe Spirit should also be added to the list. I don't know if it can get a Best Revival of a Play nomination, but I think Angela Lansbury and Christine Ebersole are both contenders for nominations.

Of course, Blithe Spirit, that's a big one. I've added it to the roster. Of course we won't know until it starts performances whether or not Ebersole, Lansbury, or the play are contenders.

will daniel radcliffe be in the 'best actor' or 'best featured actor' in the tonys if he is nominated?

He's a leading actor.