quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:

quote:

Originally posted by R2684:
I'm not convinced voters will choose "God of Carnage" over "Dividing the Estate". While I enjoyed "Carnage" very much, for me "Estate" was pretty obviously the better play. "Carnage" is of course a star-laden, box office hit so its getting a lot of coverage.

I'm not sure how much should be made of the fact that "Carnage" is currently playing while "Estate" has closed, either. This is often to said to be a big advantage but it's really not. Time and again voters have shown their memories are just fine (recent examples: 2004 Revival of a Play to Henry IV over Raisin in the Sun - also by far the bigger commercial hit; Michelle Pawk winning Featured Actress in a Play for the closed and ignored "Hollywood Arms" over Linda Emond in "Life x 3").

Plus - let's face it - another Tony for Yasmina Reza when Horton Foote has none?

I also think this is going to be not such an easy victory for Angela Lansbury. She absolutely could do it, and New York is thrilled to see her back and working in the theater again - but she does have four Tonys at home. And for me the comedic performance of the season was given by Hallie Foote.

What do you think of the odds of "The Seagull" making it into the best revival race at this point? It got great reviews but then this new bunch of late-arriving revivals all are getting great reviews. I kept it out of my line-up but being closed is really the only reason for it.

I had similar concerns in choosing "God of Carnage" over "Dividing the Estate" but all the thoughts you expressed had occurred to me. I will probably go back and forth between them several times before choosing one over the other.

The intangible thing that might hurt "The Seagull", more than it being closed for several months, is that Chekov isn't for everybody. It was unquestionably a landmark production that - aside from (arguably) Peter Sarsgaard - you could not find a single fault in.

But, it may be a little dense for some tastes. The thing is, this could be said of a lot of the excellent play revivals this season: Exit the King, Desire Under the Elms, Waiting for Godot. I'd rank it third most likely right now behind Norman Conquests and Mary Stuart, with one of the following - Joe Turner, Desire Under the Elms, Waiting for Godot - taking the last slot. But this is really just my instinct. This is an unprecedented situation in this category.

The nominations may help throw some light on the inscrutable Best Play race (will any of the directors be nominated? will any of the God of Carnage actors get nods? will anyone other than Sadoski get nodded from reasons to be pretty?)

I also think that Dividing the Estate will win Best Play. It seems that most people think that God of Carnage is a great production of a decent play, but not a great play. The reaction is similar to Boeing-Boeing, also directed by Matthew Warchus. I think that Matthew Warchus has a good shot at getting nominated for director for God of Carnage for that reason.

I think that The Seagull is likely to be left out of the running. I'm not sure its lack of populism matters that much for the nominations (as opposed to winning) -- the nominating committee is pretty small and are committed theatergoers. However, The Seagull closed a while ago, and the director, Ian Rickson, completely stumbled with his follow up, which was Hedda Gabler. That shouldn't make a difference, but I think it took away some of The Seagull's luster. I hope that Kristin Scott Thomas gets nominated nonetheless, but I have a feeling she won't.

I don't think that there is any way that [title of show] will get nominated for Best Musical. I think that Next to Normal, 9 to 5, and Billy Elliott are all locks. 9 to 5 hasn't gotten reviewed yet, but it seems to be doing decently at the box office, and it seems that it will get at least middling reviews and be popular with the tourist crowd. {title of show] closed back in October, and it could pick up a Score or Book nomination, but I think that Rock of Ages is most likely to be the last nominee. If not Rock of Ages, I think Shrek (by virtue of still being open) and White Christmas are more likely to be nominated than [title of show].

Matthew Warchus is for sure in Director-Play for "The Norman Conquests"...so the odds that he gets a second nomination for "Carnage" in a four-person category with all the terrific work this season seems sort of unlikely to me.

I think the five nominees for Actress in a Play will come from the seven of these:

Jane Fonda, 33 Variations
Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage
Tovah Feldshuh, Irena's Vow
Kristin Scott Thomas, The Seagull
Janet McTeer, Mary Stuart
Harriet Walter, Mary Stuart
Carla Gugino, Desire Under the Elms

Feldshuh is looking sort of out of it right now, and not sure who the other unfortunate lady will be...it could be KST...

The reception to "9 to 5" could be worse than we're expecting. It has a lot of talent involved, but everyone I know who has been to previews have praised Megan Hilty but said it's otherwise a mess. I do not at all think it's a lock.

There is absolutely no chance that "White Christmas" will be nominated for Best Musical over [title of show]. None. And if "Shrek" manages to make the cut, it won't be because it's still open, it will be because nominators liked it. How soon we forget Juan Darien, Swinging on a Star, Chronicle of a Death Foretold, Swing!, Amour, and A Class Act - all short-lived shows, all less well-received than [title of show], and in many cases, beating out a popular megamusical for a slot.

Not saying it will happen, but it has a fair chance. A lot of people who saw it loved it.

Speaking of "The Seagull", it got a shout-out in Ben Brantley's rave review of "The Norman Conquests" tonight:

"But the show that pairs off most naturally with Mr. Ayckbourn’s trilogy is one that opened in the fall. That is (and no, I haven’t lost my mind) Ian Rickson’s transcendent interpretation of Chekhov’s “Seagull.” For in its impeccably natural portrayal of tales of ordinary misery, “Conquests” suggests nothing so much as Chekhov pumped full of nitrous oxide. Like “The Seagull” it is built on one of the wonderful paradoxes of theater: deeply unhappy people can generate profound happiness in audiences allowed to eavesdrop on their lives."

Break a leg Gregg Jbara, Billy Elliot the Musical in Best Featured Actor Musical!

I like that Rock of Ages is getting some talk. I went to see it near the end of March while it was still in previews. It's only the 2nd show I saw on Broadway (the first was Wicked that afternoon haha), but I have seen musicals on tour & clips before. I thought to myself, this isn't your typical Broadway musical. But everyone in the audience (except the guy who sat besides me who left at intermission) had a BLAST! I got 2nd row center tickets and it was great being that close. They integrated the songs well, and the performers were enjoying it and they worked hard at it. It was like a rock concert & broadway show rolled into 1. I thought it probably would have no shot at a Tony nom, now, who knows though.

I replaced Brian Dennehy in my best actor (play) predictions with Thomas Sadoski in "reasons to be pretty". I read the NEW YORK TIMES review for "Desire Under the Elms" and while it had nice things to say about Dennehy it was co-stars Carla Gugino and Pablo Schreiber that got the raves. Ben Brantley also wrote at length about them while devoting a small portion of the review to Dennehy. Not sure if Schreiber and Gugino are to be considered lead or featured but I currently have them both in my featured actor/actress predictions.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,

Dennehy could get in on personal popularity but Gugino has the best reviews of the cast.

quote:

Originally posted by pacinofan:
I replaced Brian Dennehy in my best actor (play) predictions with Thomas Sadoski in "reasons to be pretty". I read the NEW YORK TIMES review for "Desire Under the Elms" and while it had nice things to say about Dennehy it was co-stars Carla Gugino and Pablo Schreiber that got the raves. Ben Brantley also wrote at length about them while devoting a small portion of the review to Dennehy. Not sure if Schreiber and Gugino are to be considered lead or featured but I currently have them both in my featured actor/actress predictions.

Gugino is leading.

So Gugino's Leading, eh? Hmmm...Not inappropriate, but I was just curious.

I admit, I loaded my Featured Actor predix with the "Elms" men for lack of real surefire nominees (at this point, I would only feel secure saying Hickey and Schrieber will get in- even with mixed reviews, the part and his past Tony history should give Schrieber the necessary heft for a nomination).

Jane Fonda has always looked a bit vulnerable to me in Lead Actress, and now it's really touch-and-go as to whether Kristin Scott Thomas will be shunned here as she was at the Oscars. I could easily see Gugino and/or Marcia Gay Harden replacing one/both of these women. I think Feldshuh's safer than rumor has it; again, she's got the multiple losses to propel her back to the ballots this year.

I'd say that all 3 of the Norman Conquests men and at least 2 of the Joe Turner men are just as likely, if not more, than Schreiber and Hickey in Featured Actor.

My concern with the "Conquests" men is that I feel all three would have to be nominated, or none at all...They're such an ensemble that I don't think they could pluck one or two guys from the lineup. I think the trio is good enough to pull off a clean sweep of nominations, though, so...hmmm.

I do too, actually, considering that there aren't a whole lot of contenders for this award, and could see it happening. Then again, weird things sometimes do happen with ensembles (Piper Laurie inexplicably being the only Morning's at Seven cast member not nominated).

I feel the women in Norman are just as strong as the men, though the competition is much greater in Featured Actress. I do sort of want to see them all nominated.

quote:

Originally posted by R2684:
I do too, actually, considering that there aren't a whole lot of contenders for this award, and could see it happening. Then again, weird things sometimes do happen with ensembles (Piper Laurie inexplicably being the only Morning's at Seven cast member not nominated).

I feel the women in Norman are just as strong as the men, though the competition is much greater in Featured Actress. I do sort of want to see them all nominated.

Is the actor playing Norman in "The Norman Conquests" considered featured rather than lead?

They're all billed below the title, so unless some announcement is made, yes. I don't think they'd switch him - all the roles have more or less equal stage time (Stephen Mangan plays Norman).

quote:

Originally posted by R2684:
They're all billed below the title, so unless some announcement is made, yes. I don't think they'd switch him - all the roles have more or less equal stage time (Stephen Mangan plays Norman).

Well I knocked Hickey out of my Featured Actor predictions and added Stephen Mangan. Before I thought as the title character he was being treated as lead rather than featured.

So today is the last day of eligibility for this years' Tony Awards. There is suppose to be one more/last meeting of the Tony Rules Committee, I wonder if we will know what they decided for these last few shows? Does anyone know when they will be meeting?

quote:

Originally posted by Royal Night:
So today is the last day of eligibility for this years' Tony Awards. There is suppose to be one more/last meeting of the Tony Rules Committee, I wonder if we will know what they decided for these last few shows? Does anyone know when they will be meeting?

They're meeting tomorrow (Fri May 1) at 10am. Since it's happening several days before the actual nominations, I expect there will be an announcement of rulings.

The main things to look for will be

-If all the 9 to 5 women are left in leading

-Lead or Featured for WSS's Josefina Scaglione (that's a big one)

-Lead or Featured for Gavin Creel and Will Swenson in Hair

-Lead or Featured for Schreiber in Desire (probably Featured though he's above the title)

Can anyone provide a potential list of nominees for the Featured Actor/Actress categories for Play and Musical? I would like to make some predictions, but I want to make sure I'm not overlooking any possibilities in the Featured slots. It would be much appreciated!!

Based on Pablo Schrieber being lead rather than featured I have replaced him with John Glover in "Waiting for Godot" who is getting some great notices. I think John Goodman is more likely to actually take the Tony over Glover though. I see a very competitive race between Goodman, Stephen Manger in "The Norman Conquests" and perhaps Roger Robinson in "Joe Turner's Come and Gone". I give Goodman an edge only due to fame and since I believe "The Norman Conquests" will take best revival and director so an award for Goodman can also work as a prize for the production.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pacinofan,