LIST UPDATED OCTOBER 22, 2009. As the race begins to even out, this list will become more organized and detailed. I am attempting to list all contenders for all productions in all categories, but I'm sure to wish several, at least for the time begin. Some people may also be in the wrong categories when it comes to leading or featured, but please bare with me, and continue posting your predix.

BEST PLAY

CONTENDERS

"A Beheading in Spokane," by Martin McDonagh
"After Miss Julie," by Patrick Marber
"A Steady Rain," by Keith Huff
"Collected Stories," by Donald Margulies
"Enron," by Lucy Prebble
"In the Next Room (or The Vibrator Play)," by Sarah Ruhl
"Next Fall," by Geoffrey Nauffts
"Race," by David Mamet
"Superior Donuts," by Tracy Letts
"Time Stands Still," by Donald Margulies
"Wishful Drinking," by Carrie Fisher

BEST MUSICAL

CONTENDERS

"Addams Family"
"Dame Edna: It's All About Me"
"Fela!"
"Memphis"
"Spider-Man, Turn Off the Dark"

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

NEAR-LOCKS

"The Royal Family"

CONTENDERS

"Brighton Beach Memoirs"
"Broadway Bound"
"Hamlet"
"Hughie"*
"Krapp's Last Tape"*
"Miracle Worker"
"Oleanna"
"Present Laughter"

*Both plays are presented in the same sitting.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

CONTENDERS

"A Little Night Music"
"Bye Bye Birdie"
"Finian's Rainbow"
"La Cage aux Folles"
"Promises, Promises"
"Ragtime"

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

CONTENDERS

Michael Cerveris, "In the Next Room"
Daniel Craig, "A Steady Rain"
Hugh Jackman, "A Steady Rain"
Brian D'arcy James, "Time Stands Still"
Jude Law, "Hamlet"
Michael McKean, "Superior Donuts"
Bill Pullman, "Oleanna"
James Spader, "Race"

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

CONTENDERS

Laura Benanti, "In the Next Room"
Carrie Fisher, "Wishful Drinking"
Rosemary Harris, "The Royal Family"
Laura Linney, "Time Stands Still"
Jan Maxwell, "The Royal Family"
Alison Pill, "Miracle Worker"
Julia Stiles, "Oleanna"
Kerry Washington, "Race"

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

CONTENDERS

Derrick Baskin, "Memphis"
Nolan Gerard Funk, "Bye Bye Birdie"
Sean Hayes, "Promises, Promises"
Douglas Hodge, "La Cage Aux Folles"
Barry Humphries, "Dame Edna: It's All About Me"
Cheyenne Jackson, "Finian's Rainbow"
Chad Kimball, "Memphis"
Nathan Lane, "Addams Family"
Sahr Ngaujah, "Fela!"

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

CONTENDERS

Kristen Chenoweth, "Promises, Promises"
Catherine Zeta-Jones, "A Little Night Music"
Angela Lansbury, "A Little Night Music"
Saycon Sengbloh, "Fela!"
Evan Rachel Wood, "Spiderman, Turn Out the Dark"

BEST FEATURED ACTOR, PLAY

CONTENDERS

David Alan Grier, "Race"
Thomas Jay Ryan, "In the Next Room"
Richard Thomas, "Race"

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, PLAY

Quincy Tyler Bernstine, "In the Next Room"
Abigail Breslin, "Miracle Worker"
Maria Dizzia, "In the Next Room"

BEST FEATURED ACTOR, MUSICAL

Alan Cumming, "Spiderman, Turn Out the Dark"
Bill Irwin, "Bye Bye Birdie"
Aaron Lazar, "A Little Night Music"

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, MUSICAL

CONTENDERS

Barbara Cook, "Sondheim on Sondheim"
Leslie Kritzer, "Sondheim on Sondheim"
Vanessa Williams, "Sondheim on Sondheim"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. McPhearson,

Now, my predictions:

BEST PLAY

"A Steady Rain"
"In the Next Room"
"Race"
"Superior Donuts"


BEST MUSICAL

"Addams Family"
"Catch Me If You Can"
"Fela!"
"Memphis"

(Nothing else has enough contenders that I like yet)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Dr. McPhearson,

quote:

Originally posted by Dr. McPhearson:
It is still almost a year until the next Tony Awards television broadcast, but its never too early to try and predict who the nominees will be. I will be posting lists of Contenders and Near-Locks, but feel free to post your full-fledged, way-too-early-to-tell predix whenever you feel the inkling.

NOTE: Shows like "Catch Me If You Can" will definitely make a splash in the list, but they will not be listed until Playbill removes them from the In-the-Works list and actually posts them on the Broadway schedule.

BEST PLAY

NEAR-LOCKS

[None]

CONTENDERS

"After Miss Julie," by Patrick Marber
"A Steady Rain," by Keith Huff
"Collected Stories," by Donald Margulies
"In the Next Room (or The Vibrator Play)," by Sarah Ruhl
"Race," by David Mamet
"Superior Donuts," by Tracy Letts
"Time Stands Still," by Donald Margulies
"Wishful Drinking," by Carrie Fisher

BEST MUSICAL

NEAR-LOCKS

[None]

CONTENDERS

"Addams Family"
"Fela!"
"Memphis"
"Spider-Man, Turn Off the Dark"

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

NEAR-LOCKS

"The Royal Family"

CONTENDERS

"Brighton Beach Memoirs"
"Broadway Bound"
"Hamlet"
"Hughie"*
"Krapp's Last Tape"*
"Oleanna"
"Present Laughter"

*Both plays are presented in the same sitting.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

NEAR-LOCKS

[None]

CONTENDERS

"Bye Bye Birdie"
"Finian's Rainbow"
"Ragtime"

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

NEAR-LOCKS

[None]

CONTENDERS

Daniel Craig, "A Steady Rain"
Hugh Jackman, "A Steady Rain"
Jude Law, "Hamlet"
Michael McKean, "Superior Donuts"
Bill Pullman, "Oleanna"

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

NEAR-LOCKS

[None]

CONTENDERS

Carrie Fisher, "Wishful Drinking"
Rosemary Harris, "The Royal Family"
Jan Maxwell, "The Royal Family"
Julia Stiles, "Oleanna"

BEST FEATURED ACTOR, PLAY
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, PLAY
BEST FEATURED ACTOR, MUSICAL
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, MUSICAL
BEST DIRECTOR, PLAY
BEST DIRECTOR, MUSICAL

I would add "A Little Night Music" and "La Cage aux Folles" to the list of contenders for Musical Revival.

quote:

Originally posted by YoungRestlessOne:
I would add "A Little Night Music" and "La Cage aux Folles" to the list of contenders for Musical Revival.

That's true. To miss one of those is my bad; to miss both of them on the list, what was I thinking?

I'll change it now. Thanks.

Judging from some Seattle-ites' reviews and word of mouth, 'Catch Me If You Can' can easily fit in the 'accessible, commercial musical adapted from a film' slot for Best Musical that won't win a la ('Shrek', 'The Wedding Singer', 'Mary Poppins' & 'Xanadu').

I'm more interested in seeing how Norbert Leo Butz and Aaron Tveit will do in their respective roles in the musical.

Regarding plays, 'After Miss Julie' was a pure dud, but that hasn't stopped "film actors" getting an acting nod before...

Best Featured Actress, Musical
Vanessa Williams, Sondheim on Sondheim

quote:

Originally posted by Blacktie:
Best Featured Actress, Musical
Vanessa Williams, Sondheim on Sondheim

I had not heard they were doing this until I read your comment and looked it up. It sounds like it is going to be great already with only the 4 people they have announced and they plan on announcing more. I really hope Vanessa Williams can get a Tony nomination (and hopefully a win), but I wonder will she be featured or lead? I don't really know what they do for a production like this. Though I'm sure there are other comparisons, the best one I can think of right now is "Jerome Robbins' Broadway". Only Charlotte d'Amboise was nominated in Lead, but 3 other actresses were nominated in Featured, but I don't really know how they differentiated between the 4 actresses.

I think the placements will depend on how many participants there ends up being. If any of the women - assuming there isn't a huge star added - are placed in Lead I think it will be Williams. But as I said I have no idea how they decide who goes where.

I saw The Royal Family and I feel like Jan Maxwell could get into Actress if it is a relatively weak year...Rosemary Harris is very much Featured and not Lead...I hope she gets in and the show should manage to get into revival, I like it, thoroughly enjoyed myself...I am seeing Lynn Redgrave's new one woman show, Nightingale on Wednesday...I will let you know, and finally Jude Law is getting raves, I would say he is a strong frontrunner at this early stage...

quote:

Originally posted by Royal Night:

quote:

Originally posted by Blacktie:
Best Featured Actress, Musical
Vanessa Williams, Sondheim on Sondheim

I had not heard they were doing this until I read your comment and looked it up. It sounds like it is going to be great already with only the 4 people they have announced and they plan on announcing more. I really hope Vanessa Williams can get a Tony nomination (and hopefully a win), but I wonder will she be featured or lead? I don't really know what they do for a production like this. Though I'm sure there are other comparisons, the best one I can think of right now is "Jerome Robbins' Broadway". Only Charlotte d'Amboise was nominated in Lead, but 3 other actresses were nominated in Featured, but I don't really know how they differentiated between the 4 actresses.

I think the placements will depend on how many participants there ends up being. If any of the women - assuming there isn't a huge star added - are placed in Lead I think it will be Williams. But as I said I have no idea how they decide who goes where.

I'm thinking the production will be along the same vein as Duke Ellington's "Sophisticated Ladies."

None of the Sondheim on Sondheim performers will be nominated unless the Tony administration committee declares it a new musical. If it is, it will be eligible to compete in all categories. If it's not, it will only have a chance at being awarded a special Tony if the administration committee votes it one (now that the Special Theatrical Event category has been retired).

Why wouldn't it be considered a new musical?

It has neither an original book nor an original score, and generally a new musical must have at least one. In the rare instances when a show has been admitted to competition without either of these it has been in very lean seasons for new musicals in which there were barely any legitimate contenders for the prize.

The last such musical to achieve that was Fosse in 1999 - and a dismal year for new musicals it was. Something that also helped it in was the fact that Fosse was a commercial production with a replaceable cast. The Sondheim show is produced by a not-for-profit and is scheduled for a 2-month engagement ending just before the Tonys.

By those standards, there's really no reason the currently-running "Burn the Floor" couldn't also have hopes of being considered for best new musical, which of course is super unlikely.

Likely Nominees:
Best Musical
"FELA!"
"The Addams Family"
"Sondheim on Sondheim"
Watch out for "Come Fly with Me" (Twyla Tharp's new dance play) and "Spidey"

BEST PLAY
"Race"
"Superior Donuts"
"Next Fall"
And there's always a play that comes out of nowhere

Revival Musical
"Promises, Promises"
"A Little Night Music"
"La Cage aux Folles"
"Ragtime"

Revival Play
"Brighton Beach" or "Broadway Bound"
"The Miracle Worker"
"A View from the Bridge"
"Lend Me a Tenor"

Musical Performances
Fela: Ngaujah
A Little Night Music: Zeta-Jones, Hanson, Lazar, Lansbury and Davie
Ragtime: Darrington, Noll, Umoh
Addams: Lane, Neuwirth, Mann
Sondheim: Cook, Williams, Kritzer, Arden
La Cage: Hodge & ?????
Assorted others: Baldwin, Chenowith, Kimball, Fitzgerald

NonMusical Performances to Watch
Spader, Dennehy, Metcalfe, Pill, Schreiber, Maxwell, Harris, so many 'up in the air'.

I hope Julia Stiles will won as best actress! and Hugh Jackman for best actor

Engagement Rings|Wedding Rings|Rings

This message has been edited. Last edited by: jcracker23,

The Tonys people haven't been entirely clear, but my interpretation of the decision to eliminate the Special Event category meant that every production had to be classified as new play/new musical/revival play/revival musical. Therefore, both Burn the Floor and Sondheim on Sondheim would be considered as new musicals.

In any event, there are other revues (Ain't Misbehavin, for example) that were classified as new musicals, and I think Sondheim on Sondheim would fall into that category regardless.

I personally disagree with the decision to eliminate the Special Event category -- the whole reason it was created in the first place is to categorize the shows that don't naturally fall into the other categories. It does raise an interesting question, though. In the years when Elaine Stritch, Billy Crystal, and Liza Minnelli had their shows win Special Event, if that category didn't exist, they would likely have been nominated as performers. Would they have won?

In Elaine Stritch's year, Sutton Foster won for Millie; I think Stritch would have won that without question. In Billy Crystal's year, Bill Irwin won for Virginia Woolf; that is a tossup to me. Last year, Alice Ripley won; I don't think Minnelli would have beat her, but I think it would have been close.

quote:

Originally posted by mikem:
The Tonys people haven't been entirely clear, but my interpretation of the decision to eliminate the Special Event category meant that every production had to be classified as new play/new musical/revival play/revival musical. Therefore, both Burn the Floor and Sondheim on Sondheim would be considered as new musicals.

In any event, there are other revues (Ain't Misbehavin, for example) that were classified as new musicals, and I think Sondheim on Sondheim would fall into that category regardless.

I personally disagree with the decision to eliminate the Special Event category -- the whole reason it was created in the first place is to categorize the shows that don't naturally fall into the other categories. It does raise an interesting question, though. In the years when Elaine Stritch, Billy Crystal, and Liza Minnelli had their shows win Special Event, if that category didn't exist, they would likely have been nominated as performers. Would they have won?

In Elaine Stritch's year, Sutton Foster won for Millie; I think Stritch would have won that without question. In Billy Crystal's year, Bill Irwin won for Virginia Woolf; that is a tossup to me. Last year, Alice Ripley won; I don't think Minnelli would have beat her, but I think it would have been close.

I think Billy Crystal would have come in third behind Bill Irwin and Brian F. O'Byrne ("Doubt") who was favored to win.

This is the official decision:

"Shows which were formerly considered eligible in the Special Theatrical Event category, if they meet the necessary Tony eligibility requirements, will be placed into eligibility in either the Best Play or Best Musical categories. The Administration Committee will retain its ability to award a Special Tony Award to productions, or any element thereof, worthy of extraordinary recognition. Additionally, by eliminating the category of Special Theatrical Event, all elements of all productions will now be eligible for nomination in all the other creative categories, which was precluded for productions eligible as Special Theatrical Events under the prior rules."

It's tricky language, but to me that says "if they meet the eligibility requirements" means a production like the Sondheim show or Burn the Floor is not officially a new musical until they say it is. But if a show doesn't fit into one of those categories and it's still excellent, they can vote it a special Tony anyway.

We can officially add "Promises, Promises" to the Revival of a Musical category, plus we can add Kristin Chenoweth to Lead Actress - Musical and Sean Hayes to Lead Actor - Musical!

quote:

Originally posted by Royal Night:
We can officially add "Promises, Promises" to the Revival of a Musical category, plus we can add Kristin Chenoweth to Lead Actress - Musical and Sean Hayes to Lead Actor - Musical!

Done.

I've also added Pill and Breslin for their upcoming work in the recently-announced "Miracle Worker" revival.

Does anyone know if Scarlett Johansson's role in "A View From the Bridge" will be considered Lead or Featured?

Also, I think Angela Lansbury will be considered featured and Catherine Zeta-Jones will be lead for "A Little Night Music".