BEST MUSICAL PREDICTION: Billy Elliot PREFERENCE: Billy Elliot DARK HORSE: Next to Normal
Ever so often, there comes a year when the frontrunner is simply unstoppable. I don't think there is a thing standing in the way of Elton John's newest masterpiece. It is a critic darling, and has done stellar at the box office. I was told there were audience members leaving with tears of joy by the end. Any other show pulled that off this year? The closest thing I can think of that could pull off an upset would be Next to Normal. It jumped from off-Broadway, and has that edge that really seems to be coming to life on Broadway. Not to mention, the past few musical winners (Spring Awakening, In the Heights) were not only off-Broadway transfers, but were new and fresh, much like Normal is this year. My favorite show, [title of show] was wrongly left out completely.
BEST PLAY PREDICTION: God of Carnage PREFERENCE: reasons to be pretty DARK HORSE: Dividing the Estate
After such a strong showing on nomination day (every actor nominated! In such a strong year?), God of Carnage is coming out swinging. The only wrench in the gears that I can see is Estate, which I'm told (though I haven't seen it) is the better written of the two. I'm still rooting for another four-cast show, reasons to be pretty, which is, I think, the best written of the recent play trilogy Neil LaBute has just completed.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL PREDICTION: Hair PREFERENCE: Hair DARK HORSE: West Side Story
I see Hair this year in the same light that I see Billy Elliot: there's really nothing stopping the show's producers from just taking the Tony right now. In a year of truly poor musical revivals, Hair (a musical whose plotless pandering usually bores me to tears) jumped up from stage reading material to smash hit. The only reason that I have West Side Story labelled as the dark horse is because the other two revivals shouldn't even be able to call themselves Tony nominees. Ugh.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY PREDICTION: The Norman Conquests PREFERENCE: The Norman Conquests DARK HORSE: Mary Stuart
Coming off of its Outer Critic's Circle win, Norman Conquests is looking like the frontrunner here. It is also directed by Matthew Warchus, who - surprise surprise - is director of my Best Play pick God of Carnage as well. I wonder... could that sway voters to check someone else on the ballot here and spread the wealth. Let's hope not. However, let's also not turn away from Mary Stuart, especially after it saw its two leading actresses both receive nominations in this highly-competitive year.
LEAD ACTOR IN A PLAY PREDICTION: Geoffrey Rush, Exit the King PREFERENCE: Thomas Sadoski, reasons to be pretty DARK HORSE: Raul Esparza, Speed-the-Plow
Rush is onstage every single second of King, and is one of the finest British character actors, at least in the film world. He's got the movie star aura, and the critic prizes to boot. He does, however, have his detractors, who claim his performance is more than a little over-the-top. I'm personally backing Sadoski... his first Broadway performance and up for a Tony? Good for him. Not only that, but he gives some of the most playful interviews, without a drop of pretentiousness. His acceptance speech would be a sincere one. Raul Esparza, poor fella, is going to be left in the dust again.
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY PREDICTION: Janet McTeer, Mary Stuart PREFERENCE: Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage DARK HORSE: Jane Fonda, 33 Variations
It's been a while since McTeer has won, and voters may be ready to crown her again. However, I think that Harden, who had the showiest role in her play, should take the cake. Jane Fonda, while a standout in a mediocre play, could very well snatch it from both these ladies, though.
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL PREDICTION: Brian D'Arcy James, Shrek PREFERENCE: The three boys, Billy Elliot DARK HORSE: Gavin Creel, Hair
While I didn't think James's performance in Shrek screamed Tony, he has a large support group. And he's also been putting in his share of work on and off-Broadway, so perhaps some see this as his due. I still think the three Billy boys deserve this, though; the fact that each of them were able to channel enough power and vitality to keep audiences of all shapes and sizes riveted is something worth the reward. If neither of them, it's only because, well, the voters are crazy.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL PREDICTION: Alice Ripley, Next to Normal PREFERENCE: Alice Ripley, Next to Normal DARK HORSE: None
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY PREDICTION: Roger Robinson, Joe Turner's Come and Gone PREFERENCE: Roger Robinson, Joe Turner's Come and Gone DARK HORSE: Stephen Mangan, The Norman Conquests
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY PREDICTION: Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit PREFERENCE: Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit DARK HORSE: Marin Ireland, reasons to be pretty
Lansbury is the second most-certain winner of the night next to Ripley. Ireland is the dark horse because the reviews for her make her, more than ever Sadoski, the standout of her production.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL PREDICTION: Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot PREFERENCE: Will Swenson, Hair DARK HORSE: Christopher Sieber, Shrek the Musical
I really do think this is between Jbara vs. Swenson, and would not be surprised if the latter (with his charisma and what-not) won. Sieber because he's a past nominee and has great comic timing.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL PREDICTION: Karen Olivo, West Side Story PREFERENCE: Hadyn Gwynne, Billy Elliot DARK HORSE: Jennifer Damiano, Next to Normal
Olivo has quite the number of supporters when it comes to her performance as Anita in this year's WSS revival. But Gwynne really has been gaining speed, and is in the (almost) sure-fire winner for Best Musical. Damiano has also impressed thousands, as she has packed a powerhouse performance into a show already hailed as one of the decade's best. And she's so dang young.
BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY PREDICTION: Matthew Warchus, Norman Conquests PREFERENCE: Matthew Warchus, Norman Conquests DARK HORSE: Phyllida Lloyd, Mary Stuart
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL PREDICTION: Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot PREFERENCE: Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot DARK HORSE: Michael Greif, Next to Normal
BEST MUSICAL BOOK PREDICTION: Billy Elliot PREFERENCE: [title of show] DARK HORSE: Next to Normal
Billy will probably tie with the Producers for the number of Tonys it ends up taking home, and will probably win this category on default... not to mention there's a lot of Lee Hall love floatin' around. I would rather see Hunter Bell take it for his ebb-and-flow funny-show [tos]. However, Next to Normal is an Off-Broadway-then-to-Broadway show that has really captured the hearts of many, and even if Billy takes Musical, voters may use this category as a runner-up recognition, much like they did with Passing Strange last year.
BEST MUSICAL SCORE PREDICTION: Billy Elliot PREFERENCE: Next to Normal DARK HORSE: None
It's one of those two. See above comments for reasons.
SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT PREDICTION: Liza's At The Palace PREFERENCE: You're Welcome America: A Final Night with George W. Bush DARK HORSE: None
Will Ferrell should really win this. But like he said on Conan two nights ago, Liza's Broadway royalty, which means she'll probably win here. Again, Ferrell is more deserving for both commercial and entertainment reasons. Its one of those two. No one else stands a chance.
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---- OSCAR FYC: Best Picture - "Up" Best Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man" Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan, "Lovely Bones" Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, "Basterds" Best Original Screenplay - "Up"
Posts: 1924 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
Wouldn't at all call "Next to Normal" a satire...nor "Billy Elliot" a masterpeice (but if you do, I'd also throw some credit to Lee Hall, who wrote the book and lyrics.)
While I will probably still predict "Billy" to win best musical (commerical interests), let me just say this: there is a really strong contingent for "Next to Normal" out there, and it could very well lead to the show taking both Book and Score. Imo it is clearly the best written new musical of the season.
It may not be as huggable as Billy, but it is certainly a more emotionally powerful night at the theater, and there is a significant amount of respect for this upstart, wholly original American musical that has made it to Broadway. I think admiration for the show - though in the end perhaps not enough to topple Billy - may extend beyond the Tony that Alice Ripley will certainly win.
Posts: 2803 | Location: New York, New York | Registered: August 08, 2003
Originally posted by R2684: Wouldn't at all call "Next to Normal" a satire...nor "Billy Elliot" a masterpeice (but if you do, I'd also throw some credit to Lee Hall, who wrote the book and lyrics.)
While I will probably still predict "Billy" to win best musical (commerical interests), let me just say this: there is a really strong contingent for "Next to Normal" out there, and it could very well lead to the show taking both Book and Score. Imo it is clearly the best written new musical of the season.
It may not be as huggable as Billy, but it is certainly a more emotionally powerful night at the theater, and there is a significant amount of respect for this upstart, wholly original American musical that has made it to Broadway. I think admiration for the show - though in the end perhaps not enough to topple Billy - may extend beyond the Tony that Alice Ripley will certainly win.
I was definitely wondering who would win Book. I'll post my official prediction then, but I can definitely see Next to Normal nabbing it. Shrek is funny, but not enitrely creative when it comes to its plot or dialogue; most of the funniest lines are straight from the storybook or movie. However, I'm pushing like a fiend for [title of show].
EDIT: And for the record, I agree; if any musical could be Billy, it would be Next to Normal. In fact, when I post so more predictions, I'll make it the dark horse.
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---- OSCAR FYC: Best Picture - "Up" Best Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man" Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan, "Lovely Bones" Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, "Basterds" Best Original Screenplay - "Up"
Posts: 1924 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
For me, Next to Normal is clearly superior to Billy Elliot, and I hope that the NY Times wasn't off-base when they made it sound like there was a race for Best Musical. I think it could walk off with four or five Tonys (some combo of Book, Score, Actress, Sets, Lighting, Orchestrations).
I don't think the three Billys are guaranteed Best Actor either. Their age and the fact that they come as a trio could play factors in the race; however, there's no clear alternative to them, so they probably will win.
Alice Ripley is a lock for Actress.
Hair is out in front for Revival. WSS might have some support from the out-of-town voters.
Featured Actor is open. Sieber, Swenson, and Jbara are duking it out. Featured Actress is close between Haydn Gwynne and Karen Olivo.
Score and Book are close between Next to Normal and Billy.
The play side is pretty easy to me -- God, Norman, Jane Fonda (though this category could surprise), Geoffrey Rush, Angela Lansbury, and either Robinson/Glover.
Suddenly there does seem a lot of controversy over the Billys. There's a lot of scuttlebut over the fact that they average less than 3 shows a week, that the new, fourth Billy is suddenly injured and out until further notice (during the voting period...) as well as of course those that still object to the principal of their being nominated together.
The lack of a challenger is of course the problem, though Gavin Creel and J. Robert Spencer do have vocal partisans.
I don't think Karen Olivo is going to be able to usurp Hadyn Gwynne. I feel comfortable saying that if there's one award "Billy" is going to win, it's for Gwynne.
I think Jane Fonda is not an easy pick; Marcia Gay Harden and Janet McTeer are very much in that race. Hallie Foote stands a chance of upsetting Angela Lansbury. And I'm beginning to feel Robinson is the frontrunner for Featured Actor...one of the most respected Wilson actors and a place to honor a production that a lot of people really admire.
Posts: 2803 | Location: New York, New York | Registered: August 08, 2003
A statement from Tony Admin saying that voters have fulfilled their requirement to vote in Best Leading Actor in a Musical by seeing only one of the Billys (duh, didn't everybody assume that already)...and also that "Billy Elliot" producers will make available tickets to Tony voters who want to see the other two.
That's a smart--and costly--move for producers to ensure that these boys win.
Clearly, it was becoming enough of an issue among voters to warrant this.
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Posts: 2803 | Location: New York, New York | Registered: August 08, 2003
I'm glad to hear that the Tony voters will get to see the other two boys if they so choose. That was actually going to be my main reasoning behind predicting d'Arcy James over the Billy trio.
I know its not going to happen in the least, but I'd love to see [title of show] take home book. But since that's the only major category the show is in, it will have to make due with being nominated.
Expect a book-score split between Normal and Billy.
---- OSCAR FYC: Best Picture - "Up" Best Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man" Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan, "Lovely Bones" Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, "Basterds" Best Original Screenplay - "Up"
Posts: 1924 | Location: Right behind you. | Registered: December 07, 2007
Best Musical 1. Billy Elliot 2. Next to Normal 3. Rock of Ages 4. Shrek The Musical
I think by and large Tony voters are saps, really (see: In the Heights, a soap opera in the barrio, winner of the 2008 Tony Award for Best Musical). Not that Billy Elliot is a sappy show -- and it's light years more accomplished than In the Heights -- but it's also more huggable, if less accomplished, than Next to Normal. The road voters and the older voters will go for it in droves, and the younger voters and journalists probably will go for Next to Normal, which won't be enough.
Preference: Next to Normal
Best Play 1. God of Carnage 2. Dividing the Estate 3. Reasons to Be Pretty 4. 33 Variations
Though small, the nominations committee is normally very representative of the general feeling towards a show, which means there's a lot of love for God of Carnage. Any chance Dividing the Estate had is probably obscured by the fact that it closed in January and God of Carnage is currently killing at the box office.
Preference: Dividing the Estate
Best Revival of a Play 1. The Norman Conquests 2. Joe Turner's Come and Gone 3. Mary Stuart 4. Waiting for Godot
It's almost unfair to ask voters to pick one. Joe, Mary, and Norman are certainly THE definitive productions of those plays and this is also probably the most accessible Godot ever mounted. As flawlessly acted and thrilling as Mary and Joe are, Norman is a three-for-one deal, a truly unique theatrical experience, and that's the ace in the hole, here.
Preference: A NormanMaryJoe three-way tie, please?
Best Revival of a Musical 1. Hair 2. West Side Story 3. Pal Joey 4. Guys and Dolls
No contest at all. A Directing nod for Arthur Laurents might have indicated a glimmer of competition. It didn't happen. Hair by a mile.
Preference: Hair
Best Leading Actor in a Play 1. Geoffrey Rush, Exit the King 2. Jeff Daniels, God of Carnage 3. Raul Esparza, Speed-the-Plow 4. James Gandolfini, God of Carnage 5. Thomas Sadoski, Reasons to Be Pretty
Rush has always been first and foremost a theater actor, and all his theatrical gifts are on display in Exit the King.
Preference: Geoffrey Rush
Best Leading Actress in a Play 1. Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage 2. Janet McTeer, Mary Stuart 3. Harriet Walter, Mary Stuart 4. Jane Fonda, 33 Variations 5. Hope Davis, God of Carnage
While I do think there is a chance that Janet McTeer could repeat her Drama Desk win, and least-known Harriet Walter could upset the lot of them, it seems Marcia Gay Harden is the most popular and least divisive performance among voters. Though she's a true stage talent and I like her in the play very much, imo, it's nowhere near the quality of the Mary Stuart queens.
Preference: Janet McTeer
Best Leading Actor in a Musical 1. David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish, Billy Elliot 2. Brian d'Arcy James, Shrek The Musical 3. Gavin Creel, Hair 4. J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal 5. Constantine Maroulis, Rock of Ages
The Billys pull it out despite the muckety-muck over the joint nod. The problem really is that d'Arcy James, though a Broadway journeyman, is covered in green and farts a lot, Hair is about the ensemble, Next to Normal is Alice Ripley's show, and Constantine Maroulis is like, totally psyched to be invited to the party.
Preference: J. Robert Spencer
Best Leading Actress in a Musical 1. Alice Ripley, Next to Normal 2. Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story 3. Sutton Foster, Shrek The Musical 4. Allison Janney, 9 to 5 5. Stockard Channing, Pal Joey
Hard-working Broadway musical actress with prior Tony nomination finds role of a lifetime. Everybody else can stay home.
Preference: Alice Ripley
Best Featured Actor in a Play 1. Roger Robinson, Joe Turner's Come and Gone 2. Stephen Mangan, The Norman Conquests 3. Paul Ritter, The Norman Conquests 4. John Glover, Waiting for Godot 5. Zach Grenier, 33 Variations
I think this is actually pretty clear. It's a place to honor Joe Turner and Robinson, one of the foremost August Wilson specialists, is utterly epic in the play and distinct from these other four performances. I'm still sort of stunned Grenier managed to get in over Goodman, Hickey, or Miles.
Preference: Roger Robinson
Best Featured Actress in a Play 1. Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit 2. Hallie Foote, Dividing the Estate 3. Amanda Root, The Norman Conquests 4. Jessica Hynes, The Norman Conquests 5. Marin Ireland, Reasons to Be Pretty
First of all, LOVE this lineup. Every damn performance here is an unqualified gem. I sort of think the Lansbury hype may be bigger than the actual margin she wins by, but simply don't have the guts to say she'll lose. Hallie Foote was the comedic performance of the season for me, and Root, Hynes and Ireland were every bit as heartbreaking as they were funny. And they were damn funny.
Preference: Hallie Foote
Best Featured Actor in a Musical 1. Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot 2. Christopher Sieber, Shrek The Musical 3. Will Swenson, Hair 4. David Bologna, Billy Elliot 5. Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
People seem to be genuinely moved by Jbara's performance, and on top of that he's a veteran stage actor who's slugged away in the business for years doing admirable work. Sieber's performance is a memorable scene-stealer but it doesn't have the emotional heft of Jbara and Swenson, though terrific, is after all just one of the tribe.
Preference: Will Swenson
Best Featured Actress in a Musical 1. Karen Olivo, West Side Story 2. Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot 3. Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey 4. Carole Shelley, Billy Elliot 5. Jennifer Damiano, Next to Normal
Okay, I'm eating my words here. I think there's really solid reasoning for Gwynne to win over Olivo, but Olivo just seems to have a lot of momentum. Olivo is getting predictions from a lot of reliable sources and despite the fact that this West Side revival was a disappointment, you can't deny that Olivo is pretty good. Still, Gwynne is better, and the performance more original and more moving if less visceral.
Preference: Haydn Gwynne
Best Original Score 1. Billy Elliot 2. Next to Normal 3. Shrek The Musical 4. 9 to 5
Next to Normal really, really deserves this. But here's the thing: the show that wins Best Score almost always wins Best Musical, and especially in this case I think there's going to be a sort of prevailing feeling that they can't throw a Billy Elliot party and not invite Elton John. I hope that doesn't happen, but I don't have a better rationale for a Next to Normal win.
Preference: Next to Normal
Best Book of a Musical 1. Billy Elliot 2. Next to Normal 3. Shrek The Musical 4. [Title of Show]
Okay, so, if it turns out that this award is given out on the pre-show and Next to Normal wins it, disregard everything I said above and expect N2N to take score as well. But I have a feeling that Lee Hall's elegant stage treatment of his Oscar-nominated screenplay is going to take this.
Preference: Billy Elliot's book is actually better, but holler to Next to Normal for being a wholly original new American musical not based on a movie.
Best Director of a Play 1. Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests 2. Barlett Sher, Joe Turner's Come and Gone 3. Phyllida Lloyd, Mary Stuart 4. Matthew Warchus, God of Carnage
Warchus will win for the same reason Norman will win Revival. Bart Sher would have more of a chance for a stunningly directed Joe Turner if he hadn't just won last year and if Warchus (long on Tony's to-do list) had won before.
Preference: Bartlett Sher
Best Direction of a Musical 1. Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot 2. Diane Paulus, Hair 3. Michael Greif, Next to Normal 4. Kristin Hanggi, Rock of Ages
Does anybody out there remember that Stephen Daldry has a Tony award for Best Direction of a Play for his 1994 re-imagining of An Inspector Calls? Diane Paulus deserves this win, but there's no questioning Daldry as a director of some seriously thrilling theater. Let's take a moment to spotlight the Tony-less Michael Greif, who seamlessly directed N2N and is responsible for directing two of the best performances by actresses in musicals in recent memory (Christine Ebersole and Alice Ripley) as well as a little show called Rent.
Preference: Diane Paulus
Best Choreography 1. Peter Darling, Billy Elliot 2. Karole Armitage, Hair 3. Andy Blankenbuehler, 9 to 5 4. Randy Skinner, White Christmas
Billy Elliot has the heaviest dancing component of any of the nominees...and of course it's a show ABOUT dancing.
Preference: Karole Armitage
Best Scenic Design of a Musical 1. Billy Elliot 2. Next to Normal 3. Guys and Dolls 4. Pal Joey
It's a pretty lackluster category, really, with Billy sort of winning by default. N2N's scaffolding is seamlessly and ingeniously employed, but it's too simple to win.
Preference: Next to Normal
Best Scenic Design of a Play 1. 33 Variations 2. Joe Turner's Come and Gone 3. Exit the King 4. The Norman Conquests
Loved the entire design of Joe Turner and thought Exit the King inspired though minimal. But the biggest, which is 33 Variations, probably wins.
Preference: Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Costume Design of a Musical 1. Shrek The Musical 2. Hair 3. Rock of Ages 4. Billy Elliot
The most elaborate costumes almost always win here.
Preference: Hair
Best Costume Design of a Play 1. Mary Stuart 2. Exit the King 3. Blithe Spirit 4. Waiting for Godot
Poor Jane Greenwood (Godot), the biggest loser in Tony history with something like 17 nominations and no wins. Stop putting her through this torture and just don't nominate her anymore! Mary Stuart wins, I think, more on the concept of its design (which was brilliant - men contemporary, women period) than on its execution (which was just fine).
Preference: Mary Stuart
Best Lighting Design of a Musical 1. Billy Elliot 2. Hair 3. Next to Normal 4. West Side Story
Rick Fisher, who also won a Tony for Daldry's 1994 production of An Inspector Calls, looks poised to get another.
Lighting Design of a Play 1. Equus 2. Joe Turner's Come and Gone 3. Mary Stuart 4. 33 Variations
Equus seems the most obvious choice in a very close race, so that's why I'm going with it, but I don't think the lighting of any show this season directed the eye as well as Mary Stuart or was as mood-enhancing and lush as Joe Turner.
Preference: Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Sound Design of a Musical 1. Billy Elliot 2. Hair 3. Next to Normal 4. Rock of Ages
Voters are still trying to figure out how to judge this category. The one with the most sound effects? The easiest to hear for the older voters? The loudest? Billy has both the most expansive and multifarious sound design, so look for it to win. I guess.
Best Sound Design of a Play 1. Exit the King 2. Joe Turner's Come and Gone 3. Equus 4. Mary Stuart
All these nominees have substantial incidental mood music, and in Joe Turner its really used to dramatic effect at the end of each act. But Exit the King also gives voters a live, spotlit trumpet/percussion player who also gets a couple of sight gags in the production. I think that'll be the cue for voters to mark their ballots for Exit.
Best Orchestrations 1. Billy Elliot 2. Next to Normal 3. Shrek The Musical 4. White Christmas
Should really go to Next to Normal which created a lot of sound variation with a small band of musicians playing a lot of different instruments. But I think bigger is generally better here and that's why Billy will win.
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Posts: 2803 | Location: New York, New York | Registered: August 08, 2003
Yeah, there has been, but I don't think MTC is going to do it. It has extended now 6 times but tickets are still readily available to any performance. That's a sign it's run through most of its audience. If a transfer were going to happen, I think it would have by now.
Of course a Broadway mounting would give it greater exposure but it's still a big risk. Aside from the wrenching subject matter, the reality, as Joe Turner is currently proving, is that a show with an all-black cast is a tough sell on Broadway, despite the quality of the production. Sure, it worked for "Raisin in the Sun" and "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" but that was almost entirely because of stunt casting.
"Ruined" is also not at all a cheap show to run weekly. It has a cast of 11, a live guitarist and a drummer, and not really technically simple.
I'd love to see it happen. It's a wonderful play with one of the most satisfying and moving endings I've seen in quite some time. But it doesn't look it will. There may be hope for a film adaptation. It's easy to envision the play as a film and it would throw some exposure on a very underdiscussed issue.
Posts: 2803 | Location: New York, New York | Registered: August 08, 2003
[QUOTE]Originally posted by R2684: I don't think Karen Olivo is going to be able to usurp Hadyn Gwynne. I feel comfortable saying that if there's one award "Billy" is going to win, it's for Gwynne.
Not so fast, R2684...:-) I actually did like Gwynne's performance in BILLY ELLIOT, but I don't think it came anywhere close to the turn that KAREN OLIVO makes as Anita in WEST SIDE STORY.
Sure, Gwynne won the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards, but you need to remember that those awards are voted on by very small voting committees (we're talking like 20 people, give or take a few), not the over 900 voters nationwide that vote for the Tonys.
Even though OLIVO is not the lead in WEST SIDE STORY, she was definitely the absolute shining star of the show, whereas it can be argued that the Billys (or even the best-friend, Michael) are the true standouts of their respective show. When OLIVO took the stage, she was fiery and captivating.
I took a look back at the reviews for both shows, and while BILLY ELLIOT scored the better nods as a show overall, OLIVO was definitely more passionately praised by almost every single critic than was Gwynne.
Both NY Times theatre critics selected OLIVO as the nominee that SHOULD and WILL win the award in this past Sunday's, and I assure you that those opinions matter to the voters both in and outside of New York.
To be honest, I am thankful that there are two wonderful performances to chat about. I just hope the joy and amazement I felt when watching KAREN OLIVO in "America" and the pain and hurt I felt in her near-rape scene at the end of the musical are justly rewarded with the TONY AWARD!!
For the record, there are about 100 members of the Outer Critics Circle, 150 members of the Drama Desk, and roughly 750 Tony voters.
Here is why I think Haydn Gwynne is going to win.
1. She created the role onstage. This is often an advantage (something new) and eliminates any possibility of comparison to other iconic actresses. She was also the only member of the West End company to transfer to Broadway, such was the value of her contribution to the London production.
2. Billy Elliot is a better and better-liked show than West Side Story. Despite Olivo being the best thing about WSS, the reception to the production has been pretty divided - especially in terms of the use of the Spanish, which is certainly a big part of Olivo's performance. In a close Tony race, I think it's always wiser to bet on the performance from the more popular production.
3. The fact that Gwynne, a Brit, bested Olivo, a New Yorker, for the OCC and - more importantly - the Drama Desk, which usually favors home-team talent, is an indication that there is a lot of love for the performance.
4. Least importantly but still a factor is the awareness that between In the Heights and WSS, we're seeing the beginning of a fruitful career from Olivo, whereas Gwynne is a mid-career British character actress who has sort of swooped into Broadway for a stint and might not be back anytime soon. If they like her and this performance, this will be their chance to award her.
I was mildly surprised to see that both Charles Isherwood and Ben Brantley predicted Olivo to win. I don't agree, and since there was no commentary, don't know their rationale. But I think they'd both agree it's close. And as you say, it is nice that in this category - as in almost every category this year - there are at least two totally legitimate contenders.
Posts: 2803 | Location: New York, New York | Registered: August 08, 2003
Dividing the Estate really is the better play, but as the overall nominations (and critical awards) have proved, the voters' memories aren't lasting long this season. People are in the mood to laugh this season, and God of Carnage is delivering in spades (with its entire cast nominated in the bargain).
REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL Hair
Something of a default winner, since all three of the other nominees were so roundly roasted. Thankfully, Hair is a deserving winner, as it is not only an adequate production, but actually improves upon the original Broadway production. Slam-dunk.
REVIVAL OF A PLAY The Norman Conquests
In a year notable for its smashingly good play revivals, The Norman Conquests looms large (literally) as the biggest theatrical "event" of the four plays nominated. It's a cinch to win, and that's saying something, as several deserving vehicles (Speed-the-Plow, Exit the King) had to fall by the wayside when the final ballot was made.
LEAD ACTOR IN A MUSICAL David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish, Billy Elliot the Musical
Coasting on precocious talent and an undeniable charisma factor, the Billy Elliot boys seem poised to take the trophy. However, the controversy surrounding their tri-nomination could hurt them a little more than rumor has it. I wouldn't be horribly shocked if Brian d'Arcy James upsets here.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Alice Ripley, next to normal
A good actress with the juiciest dramatic role of any of these nominees. Ripley is a lock; if not for her, Allison Janney might have had a fighting chance.
FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot the Musical
A well-liked veteran who has paid his dues, and who could have been legitimately nominated for his previous work in Victor/Victoria and Dirty Rotten Scoundrels. However, if the voters do experience a degree of Billy Elliot exhaustion at some point, Will Swenson could cop a second Tony for Hair (which frankly probably could have won a lot more Tonys were it not for the Billy tidal wave).
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot the Musical
The only absolutely sure thing for Billy Elliot as far as an acting award goes. Poor Karen Olivo is simply a victim of bad timing, and a lackluster production.
LEAD ACTOR IN A PLAY Geoffrey Rush, Exit the King
An august veteran swoops down on Broadway and makes his royal presence felt. Rush is probably the biggest acting lock of the night. A sympathetic nod goes to Raul Esparza, who has plugged along consistently on the boards and the ballots for the last five years. His day will come.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A PLAY Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage
What a bizarre ballot this is. We can safely rule out Hope Davis, who is washed out by the steely bravado of her co-star Harden. Jane Fonda is the grand dame of the lineup, but her reviews just managed to shoehorn her into the slot; she didn't send any critics to dancing on the rooftops. Harden has the flashiest role of the God of Carnage actors, and she got the best reviews of the four actors in the play. Between the two Mary Stuart girls, Janet McTeer has the leverage as both the title character and a past Tony winner. McTeer really should win, but God of Carnage is more popular than Mary Stuart, and even with McTeer's recent triumph at the Drama Desk, I think that Harden will eke out the win in the final vote, resulting in another instance of comedy trumping drama this year.
FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY Stephen Mangan, The Norman Conquests
Smart money is probably going on Roger Robinson, who is the best hope for a Tony for Joe Turner's Come and Gone. But I'm going to go on a limb here and predict Mangan as the titular Norman. Possibility for an impossible upset: Zach Grenier.
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit
When Lansbury was nominated for Deuce two years ago, there was an overriding feeling of the voters thanking the Queen for showing up. But this time, Lansbury has the reviews to carry her for a win, and her status as the resident legend of the category (and winning streak at the critical awards) certainly helps her. If the voters remember Dividing the Estate at all, it will likely be for Hallie Foote's performance rather than her father's play. But Madame Arcati has one more ace up her sleeve: if Lansbury wins, she will tie the historical precedent set by Julie Harris for five Tony wins. If anyone is worthy of tying that precedent, it's certainly Dame Angela.
DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot the Musical
It started out as a horserace between Daldry and Diane Paulus of Hair. With Daldry's success at the critical awards, he seems a safe bet, and he has a pedigree as a past Tony winner.
DIRECTOR OF A PLAY Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests
Warchus has been a Tony waiting to happen for over a decade, and he currently has the most popular play and the most popular play revival currently going on Broadway. His God of Carnage votes probably won't split his Norman Conquests share enough for him to lose the Tony. Bartlett Sher comes in second place, with Phyllida Lloyd thisclose behind him.
ORIGINAL SCORE Billy Elliot the Musical
Elton John. Need one say more?
BOOK OF A MUSICAL next to normal
There is a possible scenario in which the voters glaze over and pencil in Billy Elliot indiscriminately. However, I think there will be enough people awake at the wheel to give the Tony to deserving winner next to normal, unless the [title of show] contingent manages to split the vote and send the Tony pirouetting back into the Billy camp.
SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL Billy Elliot the Musical
Something of a default win; I hardly think that the closed productions of Guys and Dolls and Pal Joey will resonate in the voters' memories. One sorely wonders why Hair was overlooked here.
SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY 33 Variations
Michael Yeargan has his Tonys from The Light in the Piazza and South Pacific to keep warm with. If Roger Robinson goes belly-up, though, he may be Joe Turner's best shot at a Tony. Exit the King got nominated for essentially following the Hair formula of scenic design, and doing it less effectively. I think the Tony will go to the 33 Variations sets (which are the most memorable of this lineup), in the one display of love the play gets all evening.
CHOREOGRAPHY Billy Elliot the Musical
All of the nominees are deserving, but Billy Elliot is ABOUT dancing, after all...and did we mention the frontrunner status?
COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL Shrek the Musical
Tim Hatley seems the obvious choice for his fantastical work on Shrek, but be forewarned...he seemed like the obvious choice back in 2005 for his similarly outlandish work on Monty Python's Spamalot! and lost to (of all things) The Light in the Piazza. Here's banking on history not repeating itself.
COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY Mary Stuart
Baroque gowns always scream for award attention; frankly, I'd love to see this Tony go to the cosmopolitan finery Martin Pakledinaz dished out in Blithe Spirit.
LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL Billy Elliot the Musical
This is another instance where had it not been for Billy's popularity, Hair would have surely snagged a well-deserved technical Tony. As it is, however, Billy is very well-done in this respect.
LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY Equus
This highly buzzed-about revival reared its head in only two categories come Tony time, and this seems like the one place where it is sure to be recognized.
ORCHESTRATIONS Billy Elliot the Musical
The sweep continues, and is starting to get a lit-tle bit dull...
SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL Billy Elliot the Musical
This is where the Billy Elliot sweep will go a tad overboard; Hair and Rock of Ages are frankly more deserving. This one will probably fall under a haze of Billy ballot-stuffing.
SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY Exit the King
None of these vehicles have the sort of popularity on the ballots where they could pick up this award in a sweep of technical honors. So, it really is something of a pick-a-name-out-of-a-hat proposition here.
SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT You’re Welcome America. A Final Night with George W. Bush
Bless her heart; the love for Liza may do a lot for her chances, but the fact is, the veteran entertainer peaked a long time ago. If she wins, it will be more of a congratulations for still going at it than...well...a deserving win. The innovative Soul of Shaolin will snag a few votes from the intelligentsia, but I have a hunch it will go to Saturday Night Live alum Will Ferrell, as a big thank you from the people of New York for memorably spoofing an oh-so-spoofable President for the better part of a decade.
I agree with R2684 that the following races are pretty much a done deal: Best Musical (Billy Elliot) Best Revival of a Musical (Hair) Best Revival of a Play (The Norman Conquests) Leading Actor in a Play (Geoffrey Rush) Leading Actress in a Musical (Alice Ripley) Best Director of a Play (Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests) Best Choreography (Peter Darling, Billy Elliot)
I would also add: Special Event (Liza's at the Palace) Featured Actress in a Play (Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit) Director of a Musical (Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot) Scenic Design of a Musical (Billy Elliot - not because the scenic design is that amazing, but because the competition is weak (Guys and Dolls and Pal Joey are not going to win anything, and Next to Normal has a very simple set, which usually doesn't win this kind of award)
I also don't think God of Carnage is 100% a lock, although I think it's very close. I think that Dividing the Estate is still a possibility.
Many of the races are still wide open (I can see 4 of the possible nominees winning in both Featured Actor in a Musical and Featured Actress in a Musical). It's a little unusual that so many races are so open at this point in the season. This is partially because Next to Normal and Dividing the Estate have both sat out the precursors because of their prior Off-Broadway incarnations, and The Norman Conquests folks have also sat out the individual nominations because they got Best Ensemble Awards from the Drama Desks and the Outer Critics Circle.
I think the Tony telecast will be full of surprises (or at least I hope it doesn't become a Billy Elliot sweep, which will be very boring to watch (and IMO undeserved).
Conventional wisdom is that Liza's following is just too huge to be denied that Tony...but I can't settle on it yet because the fact is that Will Ferrell's show was better recieved and did better business.
Scenic Design of a Musical is also pretty much a done deal, for exactly that reason - lack of competition. (Though I do love Next to Normal's set.)
Director of a Musical seems like a done deal. Daldry's production is the most multifarious of the lot and that's why the conventional wisdom is that he'll win. And he probably will. But I give Diane Paulus a chance to upset here. This is really her Hair, as often the credit for successfully reimagined or rejuvenated revivals is rightfully due to the Director. I am not expecting a Billy sweep and this may be a category where it gets bested.
Posts: 2803 | Location: New York, New York | Registered: August 08, 2003
Originally posted by R2684: For the record, there are about 100 members of the Outer Critics Circle, 150 members of the Drama Desk, and roughly 750 Tony voters.
Here is why I think Haydn Gwynne is going to win.
1. She created the role onstage. This is often an advantage (something new) and eliminates any possibility of comparison to other iconic actresses. She was also the only member of the West End company to transfer to Broadway, such was the value of her contribution to the London production.
2. Billy Elliot is a better and better-liked show than West Side Story. Despite Olivo being the best thing about WSS, the reception to the production has been pretty divided - especially in terms of the use of the Spanish, which is certainly a big part of Olivo's performance. In a close Tony race, I think it's always wiser to bet on the performance from the more popular production.
3. The fact that Gwynne, a Brit, bested Olivo, a New Yorker, for the OCC and - more importantly - the Drama Desk, which usually favors home-team talent, is an indication that there is a lot of love for the performance.
4. Least importantly but still a factor is the awareness that between In the Heights and WSS, we're seeing the beginning of a fruitful career from Olivo, whereas Gwynne is a mid-career British character actress who has sort of swooped into Broadway for a stint and might not be back anytime soon. If they like her and this performance, this will be their chance to award her.
I was mildly surprised to see that both Charles Isherwood and Ben Brantley predicted Olivo to win. I don't agree, and since there was no commentary, don't know their rationale. But I think they'd both agree it's close. And as you say, it is nice that in this category - as in almost every category this year - there are at least two totally legitimate contenders.
I think Featured Actress is one of the most wide-open of the year. I also think that all 5 performances are pretty remarkable. I think Olivo has most of the momentum, but I've actually only seen two of the performances - Martha Plimpton & Jennifer Damiano - and I thought both ladies were amazing. I know she has little to no shot, but I'm rooting for Damiano.
Next to Normal is one of the best productions I've seen in a long, long time.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: MikeyJ7,
Play-----God of carnage musical----Billy Elliot revival of a play---- the norman conquests revival of a musical--Hair book of a musical-----billy elliot score of a musical----billy elliot director of a play---the norman conquests director of a musical--billy elliot actor-play----geoffrey rush- exit the king actress-play--marcia gay harden- god of carnage actor-musical--the Billy elliot boys actress-musical---alice ripley- next to normal featured actor-play---joe turners come and gone featured actress-play-angela lansbury- blithe spirit featured actor- musical---will swenson- Hair featured actress-musical- karen olivo- west side story set-play- 33 variations lighting -play- the norman conquests sound-play- mary stuart costumes-play- mary stuart set-musical----shrek lighting-musical--billy elliot sound -musical- hair costumes-musical-shrek orchestrations-- billy elliot choreography---billy elliot special theatrical event---will ferrell
Posts: 254 | Location: long island NY | Registered: October 30, 2008
