quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
I'd put SM's chances of winning best picture at the moment at 80%. Why?

1) Academy members seem to universally love it.
2) There is no other film with remotely the same passion - yes other films have fans, but nothing like SM
3) SM has yet to oepn wide. When it does, backed by its initial TV campaign, it will be outgrossing CCoBB head to head in the weeks between the nominations and the awards, which will end whatever advantage CC has in terms of being a financial success. It could hit $100 million before the awards.
4) The other factor - its being the farthest removed from Hollywood of any best picture winner - has pretty much been answered by the nearly across the board nominations it has received from craft guilds.

I won't dispute either claim 1 or 2 since I don't have a feel for the passion either pro or con for any of the films since I live outside the magical LA bubble. I don't consider item 4 to be an issue, either, apart from the lack of name recognition for everyone associated with the film except Boyle (who is hardly a household name outside of LA or NY).

However, for claim # 3, there is NO chance whatsoever that SM will hit $100M. Its gross this weekend and its PTA (per theater average) gross this weekend were both less than the largely invisible "Not Easily Broken." SM is currently in 600 or so theaters so a wide release that adds another 1,400 or so screens - at most - is not going to substantially increase its gross, let alone push it to $100M. GG wins or AA nominations and wins simply do not provide a sustained box office increase anymore. Even at 2,000 theaters, the film won't gross more than $7-$8M in that first wide weekend and it's all downhill from there, probably at a rate of 35-40% a week. It needs about $65M to reach $100M. You can do the math by adding a generous $8M and then $6M and then $4M for its first three wide weekends (plus maybe $10M for the first three wide weeks of weekdays and then another $10M afterwards. That puts it less than $80M and I was being generous. There's no way that happens as this film has maybe $20-$30M left in the tank, at most. It will receive a bump this coming weekend as the post GG-bump is one of the largest award show box office bumps for a film; but unless the expansion also occurs this weekend, SM's box office heights are now behind it.

Further, Ben Button is currently making almost 3x the amount of money of SM. Sure, there is a chance SM may be beating it after the AA noms arrive. However, the differences will be so small, it will do little to decrese the box office gap between the two films. There is no way to alter this as SM faces a marketing challenge unlike any of the other possible BP nominees. It has no star power to market it. I can't tune into a late night talk show and see one of the film's stars promoting the movie during the show's first half hour. Plus, the movie cannot be easily summed up in a brief 30 second commercial in order to entice general audiences to see it. These general audiences outside of LA and NY largely are no longer persuaded by award show beauty contest wins despite what the studio marketing departments say.

SM has been playing in my market for several weeks now. It may hang around in a second-run theater through the end of Oscar season; but it's not going to attract a substantially larger audience. The potential audiences actually willing to see the film are simply not large enough to push the film past $75M, let alone $100M. No amount of wishing, hoping or bandwagon jumping will overcome the obstacles confronted with getting mass market, non-art house movie going crowds from seeing this movie.

I should come to terms that Slumdog will win BP at the Oscars. But at this point, from now to Feb. 25, do you think that another film like Milk, CCOBB, or TDK can garner enough Academy Love to Win?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: caresa,

Hell, you could all say the nasty-est things you want about me, as long as you pay me Beyonce's $80 million chunk o' change per annum... I'd go "boo-hoo" all the way to the bank!

PS to B/S Fierce, in case you can and do read these forums: Love the haircolor commercials! Never know when your career might go south, might as well sell sell sell now!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Pucifer,

If SM wins best picture, it will be an easy $100 million grossing film. Feel free to disagree, most people who are going to see this film in theatres have yet to do so.

And No Country for Old Men and Crash (as well as Brokeback Mountain had it won) managed to win best picture grossing far below $100 million.

The first week it opens wide after the nominations - 1/23-25 - I expect it do easily do $8 million, likely more. It will do another $3 million the rest of that week. By that point it will already be over $50 million with four more weekends to go before the awards. As favorite and with WOM, it will sustain itself quite well.

Most importantly, it will be perceived as a hit. The incorrect but common feeling that it has limited grossing appeal will, when it exceeds those low expectations, just make it easier to win.

I think the only film that can challenge SM is The Dark Knight...and it's not even assured of a nomination. It's the only film that has enough love and can make a convincing argument to win.

But I think since the 3 acting categories are going to be such toss-ups, that the Picture (and Supporting Actor) category will be the sure thing.

I suspect DK will come in a distant second in the final voting - and if it came down to a head to head race b/w the two films, SD would get 80% of the vote.

I also suspect that TDK will be nominated just so that The Oscars can garner higher ratings but then SD will win at the end.

SD beat TDK? In what universe?

Sorry, but these new lyrics are SO confusing!

quote:

If SM wins best picture, it will be an easy $100 million grossing film. Feel free to disagree, most people who are going to see this film in theatres have yet to do so.

And No Country for Old Men and Crash (as well as Brokeback Mountain had it won) managed to win best picture grossing far below $100 million.

The first week it opens wide after the nominations - 1/23-25 - I expect it do easily do $8 million, likely more. It will do another $3 million the rest of that week. By that point it will already be over $50 million with four more weekends to go before the awards. As favorite and with WOM, it will sustain itself quite well.

I agree with almost none of this post; but I will applaud your fervent enthusiasm and support for the film. It's almost as if you are on the payroll for the marketing department at Fox Searchlight as they are about the only other people who would make such impossible claims about this film's box office potential.

Crash did indeed set the bar pretty low; but its early release date did it no favors with regard to its gross. However, if Brokeback didn't cross $100M, SM will not either. Brokeback was far more of a cultural event movie than SM has any chance of ever being. SM is an art-house smash which itself is quite an accomplishment. However that does not translate into Best Picture wins no matter how you want to spin it.

You're new here I see, so you likely don't know that I do box office analysis regularly, and I am usually right. I have been involved professionally in this field for 30+ years. I have nothing to do with Fox Searchlight, like, don't love, SM.

Were I doing FS's bidding, I'd be lowballing its chances. On the record, their people would say what you are saying. But they expect much more. And then, since a lot of people will think your analysis is right, they gain the benefit of looking like it did surprisingly well, thus benefitting it. That's one of the oldest tricks in the book. The people at the so-called "expert" box office sites bite into this stuff all the time, not knowing any better.

If SM is not up to $80 million by the night of the Oscars, I'd be shocked. And then if it wins, it will easily add $20 million more, and possibly far beyond.

I went through this four years ago when I said M$B would hit $100 million. That was ridiculed. It did. I predicted BM's success, including a likelihood of $100 million had it won (it didn't and of course then did not). I was way out front last year with Juno when people scoffed that it would break out. Much of what I write hear is opinion; this stuff, though not yet realized, is of a different order of analysis.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

It feels quite inevitable that Slumdog will win Best Picture, and well deserved despite the hate it gets.

The Dark Knight was always going to be a hit; there was no doubt about it but Slumdog's $30+ Million is a shock considering it's not a wide release and the fact that it was going to be released straight to video and has no big movie stars. Considering those circumstances Slumdog Millionaire is more of a triumph than The Dark Knight.

I haven't noticed any "hatred" for Slumdog.

Yeah, I don't hate Slumdog in the least, I just am suprised that so many feel it is the Best Pic of the year. Suprised it is winning so much. I liked the movie but I don't get what makes it the one to beat.

As much as I love TDK, there is no way it'll win Best Picture. The nomination will be its reward.

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
You're new here I see, so you likely don't know that I do box office analysis regularly, and I am usually right. I have been involved professionally in this field for 30+ years. I have nothing to do with Fox Searchlight, like, don't love, SM.

Were I doing FS's bidding, I'd be lowballing its chances. On the record, their people would say what you are saying. But they expect much more. And then, since a lot of people will think your analysis is right, they gain the benefit of looking like it did surprisingly well, thus benefitting it. That's one of the oldest tricks in the book. The people at the so-called "expert" box office sites bite into this stuff all the time, not knowing any better.

If SM is not up to $80 million by the night of the Oscars, I'd be shocked. And then if it wins, it will easily add $20 million more, and possibly far beyond.

I went through this four years ago when I said M$B would hit $100 million. That was ridiculed. It did. I predicted BM's success, including a likelihood of $100 million had it won (it didn't and of course then did not). I was way out front last year with Juno when people scoffed that it would break out. Much of what I write hear is opinion; this stuff, though not yet realized, is of a different order of analysis.

Ah, yes. The "new poster doesn't know squat" canard and cannot possibly possess an opinion with a realistic chance of being as valid as a veteran poster. Fair enough.

Speaking as someone representing a demographic this film would typically appeal to and without having any industry connections, after reviewing the past several years of box office grosses of the winning and losing Best Picture nominees, I can only tell you that SM reaching $100M would be completely unprecedented as it would need an alignment of stars (the cosmic variety, not the Hollywood kind) not afforded to any other film this decade. M$B might be the only film in recent years to have capitalized significantly on any sort of awards nominations\wins and SM will need to do that in order to reach $100M. Then again, M$B had star power that SM doesn't have and it was far easier to market and promote to general American audiences.

I honestly do not see any scenario where SM reaches $100M. It simply does not have the mass market appeal needed to get there. Critical praise has only garnered it $35M in two months time. Its GG wins and likely AA noms will not assist it in claiming another $65M. We'll know in about two weeks time if it has a realistic chance at reaching that height, so I'll gladly eat my words if it reaches $80M, let alone $100M.

We'll see. I didn't say you didn't have knowledge on this subject because you are new, I said you don't know how much expertise and proven ability I have over the past few years.

The idea that a film that is

1) still to have a wide release
2) still has not had a national TV buy
3) is the frontrunner for best picture
4) is a great WOM picture
5) that has grossed $35 million while facing many upscale pictures and with the very negatives you rightly suggest

will make it to $80 million by the time of the awards, and $100 million if it wins best picture, is box office 101 for those of us who are professionals.

I have no idea how you make your calculations, but they don't reflect the reality of SM's future.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: seanflynn,

I have not seen Slumdog yet, but from what i have read, it has an against-the-odds story with a feel-good ending. If that is not something that audiences during a recession would lap up, i don't know what is.

Brokeback Mountain was a great landmark movie, but it wasn't feel-good. Million Dollar Baby was spunky, but it didn't have a feel-good ending. No Country was quirky, but it certainly wasn't feel-good. And Crash just left many people with a bad taste.

I have suggested in the past that Slumdog Millionaire might be what Frank Capra would have made in the 21st century. And people connect with Frank Capra movies. So i do believe Slumdog has a good chance of reaching $100 million after the Oscars.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Vinny,

Can anyone direct me to video of Sally Hawkins' speech? I missed it yesterday, and can't find it on YouTube.

Sean, I found this interesting article that only boasts your arguement about Slumdog Millionaire.

This from Variety:

Posted: Mon., Jan. 12, 2009, 5:20pm PT

Globe wins drive up niche biz
'Slumdog,' 'Wrestler' to get box office bump
By PAMELA MCCLINTOCK

The Golden Globe wins for "Slumdog Millionaire" -- already the most successful platform release of the season -- and "The Wrestler" give Fox Searchlight an enviable chokehold at the specialty box office until Oscar nominations are announced Jan. 22.

Released on Nov. 7 in a limited run, Danny Boyle's "Slumdog" has grossed $34.1 million through Sunday. It's playing in only 600 theaters.

"Wrestler" -- with Mickey Rourke winning for lead actor in a drama -- has been building slowly since its Dec. 19 bow, but it's been a steady performer, grossing $2.8 million to date and playing in 60 runs.

Other specialty films picking up key awards at Sunday's Globes were the Weinstein Co.'s "The Reader" and DreamWorks/Paramount's "Revolutionary Road," both starring Kate Winslet, who won supporting actress for the former and lead actress for the latter.

The Weinstein Co. will use "Vicky Cristina Barcelona's" win for comedy to market the release of the DVD in a week.

Increasingly, the Globes are becoming more influential in terms of driving business at the box office.

There was a noticeable number of films leaving the Beverly Hilton empty-handed, including Universal's "Frost/Nixon," Focus Features' "Milk," Miramax's "Doubt" and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." "Button" is the only wide release.

With Boyle's "Slumdog" winning in all four categories in which it was nominated -- drama, director, screenplay and original score -- and the performance wins by Winslet and Rourke, there wasn't much left over.

The game is hardly over; most specialty films have largely held back from expanding until after the Oscar noms are announced. "Doubt" was an exception, expanding to 1,267 runs over Christmas to strong results.

Even "Slumdog" won't expand this weekend, but by Jan. 23, it will be playing in roughly 1,300 runs.

Searchlight will up "Wrestler's" runs from about 60 to 160 on Friday, while pic will be playing in roughly 400 runs by Jan. 23.

Its Globe victories give Searchlight a boost in promoting two films that are a difficult sell, albeit for different reasons. One thing they share is an R rating.

Searchlight won't begin its national TV campaign for "Slumdog" until next week to correspond with the film going wide on Jan. 23.

"We feel very good about where we are on both films," said Fox Searchlight's Steve Gilula.

Searchlight picked up domestic distribution rights to the film in late summer from Warner Bros., after Warner Independent Pictures -- where "Slumdog" was made -- closed down. Warners remains a partner on the film, and is the international distributor. Warners and Searchlight are full financial partners.

Searchlight bought domestic rights to "Wrestler" at the Venice Film Festival.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: caresa,

quote:

Originally posted by seanflynn:
We'll see. I didn't say you didn't have knowledge on this subject because you are new, I said you don't know how much expertise and proven ability I have over the past few years.

The idea that a film that is

1) still to have a wide release
2) still has not had a national TV buy
3) is the frontrunner for best picture
4) is a great WOM picture
5) that has grossed $35 million while facing many upscale pictures and with the very negatives you rightly suggest

will make it to $80 million by the time of the awards, and $100 million if it wins best picture, is box office 101 for those of us who are professionals.

I have no idea how you make your calculations, but they don't reflect the reality of SM's future.

The reality is that SM has been in theaters for 60+ days and it will be near the 75 day mark if it goes wide (2,000?) on the 23rd. How many films in recent years apart from Titanic or My Big Fat Greek Wedding have grossed $55M+ after being theaters for 75 days? How many have grossed that much with no star power to promote or propel it? MBFGW is the only that comes to mind and that's been over six years ago.

Also, a wide release is only going to kill the solid PTAs the film has enjoyed the past few weeks. I'd hazard a guess that a very high percentage of markets of 150,000 or more people have already hosted the film. That leaves only third tier markets as being unexposed to the film. A wide release to these smaller markets and a greater saturation in the larger markets will probably produce a good first week; but I think it will level off rapidly after that, even with a high number of AA nominations. As mentioned upthread, "Not Easily Broken" outgrossed it by 40% on only 20% more screens. Sure, it is a first week fluke; but that should give an indication about how SM has maxed out in its current capacity. So I'm speculating that a large number of people who want to see SM have already done so. Unless it is receiving a lot of underreported repeat business, I don't foresee $65M worth of audience potential left in this film.

Maybe there's some precedent or fact or trend I have completely overlooked on which you are basing your opinions; but release age, the lack of star power, a difficult to market film, and an ever dwindling awards bounce in recent years all suggest to me that this film will not earn twice its current gross from this point forward.