Let's do a rundown of insights on how to predict those unpredictable Globes.

Easy guidelines like this: Globe voters are so keen on musicals that, if a successful one gets nominated for best comedy/musical pic, it almost automatically wins.

Let's not just do film categories, but TV too, OK? Whatcha thank, my kudos comrades? I'd like to do an article roundup on these and would appreciate your input.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tom O'Neil,

At this point, I almost feel like they are going to give the Best Actress/Actor globes to Angelina and Brad because it will make a good story. Big stars, big ratings seem to be the goal this year...just my opinion.

^^ that or Kate and Leo.

Yeah, I was gonna also say - the bigger you are the star the better!

Also, I was reading Nathaniel's blog over at The Film Experience, and he recently had an interesting post about the Golden Globes:

Two guys discussing the Golden Globes

Guy #1: Well, the Globes do that. They like to pick movies or people who need an Oscar push -- try to help them out.
Guy #2: Back in '95 they tried to help Sharon Stone but Sharon Stone couldn't help herself.

Ha! True on so many levels... Naturally I joined the conversation after that quip.

http://filmexperience.blogspot.com/2008/12/overheard-at...ty-this-weekend.html

okay, I'll try to do as best I can, but from observing the Globes, here's what they tend to reward:

Best Motion Picture-Drama
They go for the most epic-looking film of the bunch and/or the film which scores the most nominations. Case in point-Babel, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain and Atonement in the last few years.

My prediction for this year: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-It truly looks like an epic in every sense, plus it's up for 5 awards, the most nominations this year. Having a big-name star like Brad Pitt only sweetens the deal.

or: Revolutionary Road-Probably to attract a wider audience, they might go gaga over the other epic-looking film. especially with this "Titanic Reunion", I could see them rewarding this across the field.

Best Picture-Musical or Comedy
This usually goes to a musical or a runaway blockbuster hit. Case in point-Evita, Dreamgirls, Sweeney Todd. If their are two musicals competing, they reward the more "high-brow" of the two e.g. Sweeney Todd winning over Hairspray. A musical biopic also fares well iun this category (Walk the Line) and only rarely does the critics darling, when it has undeniable support win here (Sideways)

My prediction this year: Mamma Mia!-It is the only musical in the group, is starring meryl Streep, and its box-office gross is massive.

Best Actor-Drama
This goes to the man which balances star power and critical support.

My prediction this year: Leonardo DiCaprio-If they go with the "Titanic" thing.

or: Sean Penn-If they follow suit with the critics

or: Brad Pitt-If his film sweeps him up, he could also be jointly awarded with Angelina

Best Actor-Musical or Comedy
This usually goes to the person in the musical or musical bio-pic (Jamie Foxx, Joaquin Phoenix, Richard Gere). However if there is none, they go with the veteran with the most name recognition (Gene Hackman, Bill Murray)

my prediction for this year: Dustin Hoffman-Simply because he's the most respected actor and from what I've heard gives a noteworthy performance.

Best Actress-Drama
This usually goes to the star with the biggest name in the line-up, who gives a good performance. Only rarely does the critics darling win (Brenda Blethyn), when there is no recognizable name in the list or the high profile actresses nominated just barely get in as filler nominees.

My prediction: Kate Winslet-It's about time they gave her a Globe. This could go with the "Titanic" thing.

or:Meryl Streep-Just seems like the performance they would eat up

or: Angelina Jolie-If they decide to award Brangelina

Best Actress-Comedy or Musical
Again, they go for the actress in the musical or musical biopic. Even better if she's a high profile actress. If not then, again the veteran gets it (Diane Keaton). They only go for the critics darling, if the rest of the nominees look laughable by comparison (Janet McTeer)

My prediction: Meryl Streep-If Kate Winslet wins the Drama Globe then Meryl Streep wins the this one. They are going to reward her for one film this year. Not to mention, Mamma Mia! was huge, is a musical and is probably the frontrunner to win the Best Picture prize (Comedy/Musical).

or: Sally Hawkins-If Meryl Streep wins the Drama globe. Even if she loses the Globe to Meryl, she will still get the Oscar nomination.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Here they look for a star with a good amount of buzz, for the win. They still don't go for critics darlings, however if an actor is both a star and a critics darling, then they would reward that person no matter what.

My prediction: Heath Ledger and Penelope Cruz. They have this award on lock and the only other person I see spoiling is Kate winslet, if they decide to reward her here.

Best Director
This is the hardest to predict. They have some really off beat choices sometimes. Most of the time the Director rides the film's wave. But recently that has not been the case. I think that will be the case this year though.

My prediction: David Fincher-I think if they go with Revolutionary Road in the other categories, they will reward Fincher here. I dunno, just a hunch.

Here are my thoughts on the golden globe nominations and why I think certain people will win.


Best Supporting Actor

This award is Heath's hand's down. His only real competition could have been Mr. Shannon from Revolutionary Road or any of the guys from the film Milk, but seeing as how none of them got nominated then this award goes to Heath hands down. RDjr. is not going to win this award because Tom Cruise is nominated from the same film and he will siphon away votes.


Best Supporting Actress

This is a tough category to predict, but I think I have gotten it figured out. Most of the time when two people from the same film are nominated then they cancel each other out so the two Doubt women are off of the winners list. Marisa Tomei I just don't think has what it takes to win. That leaves Penelope and Kate. Penelope is an easy choice. She's a foreign star, and this is the Hollywood FOREIGN press, but Kate Winslet has never won a Globe and The Reader is simply just a great performance by her. Look for her to take the Critics choice award first and then be ready for her to win this one on a streak to the Oscar.


Best Actress-Comedy/Musical

This again is one of the harder one's to predict. Like Tom O'neil has said the HFPA loves their musicals. Mamma Mia also happens to be a huge blockbuster. Meryl Streep could win this award. Then, the only othe person who could take this away from her is Sally Hawkins for Mike Leigh's film Happy go lucky. Sally has won numerous critics awards for this performance. In the end it all comes down to which I think the Globes will go after more and I'm sorry to say that I really believe that they will reward Meryl Streep here.

Best Actor-Com./Musical

This has got to be one of the weakest category in golden globe's history. None of these guys has a prayer at getting an oscar nomination, so you can't even go by what most people go by which is this person has won critics awards and is clearly an oscar contender, so it's all mostly on blind luck. I do see a winner here and it may not be the one that you all are thinking of either. Javier Bardem wasn't the best thing of his film and I just don't see the globes rewarding him, so he's out. The two guys from In bruges will cancel each other out. Dustin Hoffman could be a spoiler here, but I just don't think he's going to win this award. I can totally see James Franco winning this award, as much as for his performance in the film "Milk" as I can see for Pineapple Express. I may be wrong, but I can see this happening. My pick is James Franco.

Best Actor-Drama

The globes do love nominating it's share of stars, but not really rewarding them that much. Brad didn't even win when he was nominated for Babel, so a win for him I just don't see it happening. I think this is an award that is down to three people, Leo, Mickey, Sean. I would say that Sean is the clear winner, but he is his films only nomination. I'm still unclear as of this moment, but I'm going to go with Mickey Rourke as of right now for the win.


Lead Actress-Drama

Angelina is out, nice for the nomination, but again she is her films only nomination. Kristin scott thomas is out too. That's leaves three possibilites, I don't think Meryl will win both globes so I'm counting her out. The thing that has pulled me to picking the winner of this award is one thing and one thing only. The globes usally like to be in on hailing a bright young new star, i.e. hilary swank, charlize theron etc. This year is no exception so I choose Anne Hathaway to win this award by a slim margin.


Best Director

Hands down the winner is Danny Boyle for his film.


Picture Com/mus.

The winner of this award is going to be the world wide hit musical mamma mia.


picture drama

Again, slumdog millionaire, nough said.

for TV, they usually look for the hot young series both in Comedy and Drama. So I say either True Blood or In Treatment wins the Drama Globe and I think 30 Rock will finally win that Comedy globe.

Same goes for the actors,

They'll probably reward the likes of Michael C. Hall and Anna Paquin.

In Comedy, 4 of the 5 actors have already won but I just don't see them honoring Kevin Connolly, so thye'll probably reward Baldwin or Carrell again. While the actress bunch looks like a staple. They'll probably reward Applegate or Messing cause they haven't won before, but I can see them honoring Tina Fey again for the year that she's had.

In the supporting races, they go with either a make-up award or the one with the most respect.
I think Eileen Atkins or Dianne Wiest will win Supporting Actress while Tom Wilkinson wins Supporting Actor.

For TV, it seems like 30 Rock is set up to sweep the comedy categories it's nominated in and Mad Men for the drama. They both have so much buzz, it's impossible to ignore at this point...although True blood seems natural to win drama series for the "new hot show" factor.

Money, money & more money.

If an actor or actress can give them higher ratings...they're in.

Gifts are also good. Take the lot of them to New York or Vegas, to have dinner with your star or catch them in a show. Worked not only for Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman, but it also got the film a win. Also got Pia Zadora a Newcomer win over Timothy Hutton & Elizabeth McGovern. Didn't work so well for Sharon Stone. The above mentioned push was started because Ms. Stone bought all the members watches. Too bad they were found out & had to return their gifts. If they hadn't been caught until after the prize was given out we might be referring to her as "Oscar winner Sharon Stone" (for The Mighty no less).

Be foreign, it comes into play a lot more than you might think.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: dwb,

quote:

Be foreign, it comes into play a lot more than you might think.

This is ridiculous. Foreign is not a nationality. So it's impossible any kind of chauvinism. A german doesn't identify him/herself with a spanish just because they're non-americans.

Penélope can get some votes from hispanics but Kate and The Reader can get some votes from germans and italians can vote Marisa Tomei.

What HFPA has that american awards don't have is less prejudice against non-americans performances. It's the american awards who rewards americans too much and not the opposite.

BEST FILM - DRAMA

With regards to the 'sweeping epic' factor, I'm going with Benjamin Button. Danny Boyle will get director.

BEST FILM - MUSICAL/COMEDY

WOuld love to see Happy-Go-Lucky, but honestly, with the box office numbers that it received, the winner is still the dreadful Mamma Mia!.

BEST DIRECTOR

Like I said, Danny Boyle's got it. Him, or David Fincher.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Benjamin Button or Slumdog, mostly because they're the Adapted Oscar frontrunners, and all of this year's screenplay nominations at the Globes are adapted.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA

Mickey Rourke vs. Sean Penn. Would love to see Leonardo DiCaprio a factor, but its a pretty heavy category this year. Sean Penn for the Oscar, but Rourke might actually nab this one.

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA

I predict Anne Hathaway, but I want Kate Winslet. And, of course, there's Meryl Streep.

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL/COMEDY

Bruges Boys were great, but award-winning? Hmm. Dustin Hoffman looks decent. Javier Bardem, the same. James Franco for the win in a mainstream comedy, especially with a snub in supporting for Milk.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL/COMEDY

I would say Meryl Streep, but I'm not so sure. If Meryl wins here, Winslet or Hathaway win in Drama. If Meryl loses here, Sally Hawkins is the only one I can see taking it.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger. Nuff said.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, even though, again, my heart is with Winslet.

It always makes me laugh that journalists have it all in for The Golden Globes and their voting process. As if the Emmys and the Oscars are any better in their whole background voting process? None of it has anything at all to do with who is the better actor or the better series or the better movie. It's all about the ratings and the money and the whole Hollywood background politics for all these award shows when it comes right down to it.

And the Golden Globes are actually the most entertaining of all the award shows. At least they award some new shows and actors instead of the same safe choices year after year. I love the Globes. Now they know how to throw a party!

I have a feeling that In Treatment will be a big winner this year:

1. It’s a new show
2. Not only it's a new show, but it is completely different of everything on the air. The way the show is aired (five times a week) and the fact that it is simply brilliant will be enough to win the Globe. Nip/Tuck, Lost and Mad Men are just a few examples that support this theory.
3. Gabriel Byrne is a terrific actor that is finally getting some recognition. With Cranston out, they will take this opportunity to reward him.
4. Melissa George got the nomination and that was the hardest part. She gave the best performance on the show and I can see them giving her the win to "justify" (I don't know how to justify my point about her very clearly) In Treatment's reign. I can see her as the new Samantha Morton (last year) or the new Emily Blunt (two years ago) of this category.

Heath Ledger should win, but I can see Robert Downey, Jr. taking the Globe for his "comeback". Also, I can see Kate Winslet losing to Anne Hathaway and taking the Supporting Globe from Penélope Cruz.

A well-connected source in the Mad Men family (very high up) tells me they expect True Blood to win for some reason.

This is easy; on the film side they pretty much vote for whoever they think is going to win the Oscar (which to them seems to mean some rationale of size and scope, subject matter, box office and starpower). On the TV side they vote for whatever appears to be the hot new thing out of the gate in order to appear Emmy prophetic.

Geez, Tom has a point on the musical/comedy picture race. 2007-Sweeney Todd over Juno, 2006-Dreamgirls over Little Miss Sunshine.

I wouldn't call it that easy to predict on the film side. I mean did the Globes really think Atonement would win best picture last year? Or Babel in 06'? Maybe they did, but the Hollywood Foreign Press always seems to throw curve balls every year. One thing I learned about them is they love their stars and as well being the first to discover some.

On the TV side, hmm. Well for one, new new new. Seems to be the motto. The odd time they award shows past their 2nd season. From what I remember, The X-Files and Sex and the City were exceptions to that.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: chriswpg,

are they giving Robert Downey jr ANOTHER comeback award? they did once years ago for Ally McBeal.

quote:

Originally posted by chatan:
are they giving Robert Downey jr ANOTHER comeback award? they did once years ago for Ally McBeal.

I'm one of those predicting Heath Ledger but I have to admit I get that gut feeling he could upset and take the award. He is no.2 based on the HFP's past history.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: chriswpg,

No, the GGs will give it to Ledger, after trying to build this up and trying to create controversy over whom will accept it. I'd be shocked if these phonies did anything else (and this has nothing to do whether he deserves it, just how the GGs operate).

quote:

Originally posted by chriswpg:
Geez, Tom has a point on the musical/comedy picture race. 2007-Sweeney Todd over Juno, 2006-Dreamgirls over Little Miss Sunshine.

I wouldn't call it that easy to predict on the film side. I mean did the Globes really think Atonement would win best picture last year? Or Babel in 06'? Maybe they did, but the Hollywood Foreign Press always seems to throw curve balls every year. One thing I learned about them is they love their stars and as well being the first to discover some.

I didn't mean that they're necessarily easy to predict, but that the rationle for their choices always seems fairly obvious. "Atonement" and "Babel" were both early frontrunners for Best Picture before they opened to less enthusiastic reviews and sales. There are of course exceptions - I don't know how much of a shot they thought Julian Schnabel had for Director last year, but that was a surprising and correct decision.